**Reminder that FCS games and garbage-time possessions are not included in these numbers***
Offensive Points Per Drive:
Texas Tech - 2.29 points per offensive possession. 63rd in the country.
(conf only) - 2.71 points per drive. 6th in the conference.
Baylor - 2.91 points per offensive possession. 22nd in the country.
(conf only) - 2.98 points per drive. 2nd in the conference.
Offensive TD Percentage:
Texas Tech - 27.8% of possessions end with a TD play. 66th in the country.
(conf only) - 32.7% of conference possessions result in TDs. 6th in the conference.
Baylor - 40% of possessions end with a TD play. 18th in the country.
(conf only) - 38.6% of drives have been TDs. 3rd -- behind only TCU & Kansas.
Offensive Turnover Percentage:
Texas Tech - 13.9% of possessions end with a turnover. 87th in the country.
(conf only) - 10.2% of possessions end with a turnover. 4th best in the conference.
Baylor - 13.8% of possessions end with a turnover. 86th in the country.
(conf only) - 18.2% of conf possessions are turned over. Dead last by a wide margin. Bad luck or is there something to that?
Offensive Yards Per Play:
Texas Tech - 5.25 yards per play. 93rd in the country.
Baylor - 6.36 yards per play. 32nd in the country.
Baylor's offense has been really good this year -- especially when you think about all the (unlucky?) turnovers its had the last few games. That said, they have not played a particularly tough schedule from a defenses-faced standpoint. The best defense that they faced by far is Iowa State, and they did move the ball really well against them on the road and in a tough environment. Their offensive performance against BYU, though, is now a real stinker -- although I will admit that the environment in Provo (and likely Ames) will be harder to play in than what they will face in Lubbock (assuming the Tech student section from the last 10+ years shows up).
The Tech offense is entering a weird territory where the numbers are not a good representation of what our potential is on that side of the ball. We've played a top 10 schedule to this point from a defenses-faced standpoint. It was tough sledding through the first half of our schedule.
We have a different QB.
We've played 1/3rd of our games without our most game-breaking skill player (Myles Price), and he will return this week.
And our tempo is on a different planet right now compared to anyone else in the country and what we were doing at the beginning of the year with Donovan.
The numbers listed above have not caught up to Tech's offense, but the betting market has. Tech's team total will be 31.5 or so, which will be the highest projected points to be scored against Baylor all season. In other words, this is arguably the toughest test that Baylor's defense will have faced to this point.
Defensive Points Per Drive:
Texas Tech - 2.23 points allowed per possession. 69th in the country.
(conf only) - 2.51 points allowed per drive. 6th in the conference.
Baylor - 2.24 points allowed per possession. 71st in the country.
(conf only) - 2.7 points allowed per drive. 7th in the conference.
Defensive TD Percentage:
Texas Tech - 23% of possessions end with opponents running a TD play. 39th in the country. On pace to be one of the best in the Ben Golan Era of Tech football.
(conf only) - 27.7% of conf. opponents' possessions are TDs. 5th in the league.
Baylor - 27% of possessions end with opponents running a TD play. 63rd in the country.
(conf only) - 32.6% of drives end with opponent TD. 7th in the conference.
Defensive Turnover Percentage:
Texas Tech - 13.5% of opponents' possessions end with a turnover. 50th in the country. Watch out Big 12 opponents, if this number keeps increasing.
(conf. only) - 12.8% -- 4th in the conference.
Baylor- 11.1% of opponents' possessions end with a turnover. 78th in the country.
(conf. only) - 14% -- 3rd in the conference.
Defensive Yards Per Play:
Texas Tech - 5.48 yards allowed per play. 44th in the country.
Baylor - 5.52 yards allowed per play. 50th in the country.
I don't think many people know Baylor's team and personnel better than Joey McGuire, and he explained yesterday that losing a lot of NFL guys and having a really young secondary has made Baylor's defense take a big step backwards this year. The numbers reflect that. Baylor's defense is trending the wrong direction, while ours is trending upward.
I always wondered what it would be like to play defense with an NFL edge rusher, two bonafide cover corners with length and speed, and one Muddy Waters. It was a mystery as I watched Big 12 opponents score TDs on about 40% of their possessions against Tech's defense. Now I know what it looks like. And I like the way it looks.
Our opponents' starting drives average 63 yards away from the end zone. That is the worst in the country. Stated differently, our opponents have the best field position against our defense. And that's okay. There's a risk and reward to going for it on 4th down as much as we do, and the net effect has been positive for Tech football. Our defense is a big boy and can take it. But the short field position explains why our points per drive allowed is on par with Baylor.
Right now, Tech's defense is allowing Big 12 opponents to gain just 33 yards per drive. That's 2nd best in the conference. It makes me want to be even more aggressive on 4th down.
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