Not much in sports so this is a hot topic lately.
They've adhered to the treaty for 2 years while sanctions have increased. With countries developing ways to avoid using the dollar in transactions, the seizing of their tanker was inevitable. Iran has few options. 1. Capitulation to Trump's demands which would probably require regime change. 2. A hostile and perhaps military response. 3. Restarting their nuclear enrichment. 4. Others?
After 2 years it appears extreme external actions is needed for regime change. Their response?
Attacking the US assets directly is unrealistic. Attacking or seizing other ships might be but that would result in international condemnation. It's possible, but I don't think it's likely. Trump's willingness to go to war over the downing of a drone leaves little doubt of a response for a boat seizure.
Increasing enrichment levels is a measured response with no direct attack. They can claim the other side violated the treaty first anyway. Trump's response? I'd suggest enrichment will trigger a stark warning, followed by more military maneuvers, and eventually a military action. No way Russia and China, nor Americans, would stand for US troops in Iran. Is a bombing campaign the only option? If so... infrastructure, the nuclear facilities, government facilities, etc?. Unfortunately, I don't see a few thousand civilian casualties phasing their leaders.
Trump has stated that he "doesn't need an exit strategy" so what happens? Can Trump build any coalition, and with who? Can we get Iran to surrender without regime change? Can we get regime change without land troops or a huge loss of civilian lives? What happens in Iraq? The president has tried unsuccessfully in recent weeks to convince Shiite militias to disarm. It definitely wouldn't be a comfortable position for 10K troops there, nor in Afghanistan. Would terror attacks against US assets and citizens increase around the globe?
Without an exit strategy, how much of bombing campaign is practical? Russia and China will want their 30 silver coins to stay out of this. All hypothetical still, but curious as to how others view this situation.
They've adhered to the treaty for 2 years while sanctions have increased. With countries developing ways to avoid using the dollar in transactions, the seizing of their tanker was inevitable. Iran has few options. 1. Capitulation to Trump's demands which would probably require regime change. 2. A hostile and perhaps military response. 3. Restarting their nuclear enrichment. 4. Others?
After 2 years it appears extreme external actions is needed for regime change. Their response?
Attacking the US assets directly is unrealistic. Attacking or seizing other ships might be but that would result in international condemnation. It's possible, but I don't think it's likely. Trump's willingness to go to war over the downing of a drone leaves little doubt of a response for a boat seizure.
Increasing enrichment levels is a measured response with no direct attack. They can claim the other side violated the treaty first anyway. Trump's response? I'd suggest enrichment will trigger a stark warning, followed by more military maneuvers, and eventually a military action. No way Russia and China, nor Americans, would stand for US troops in Iran. Is a bombing campaign the only option? If so... infrastructure, the nuclear facilities, government facilities, etc?. Unfortunately, I don't see a few thousand civilian casualties phasing their leaders.
Trump has stated that he "doesn't need an exit strategy" so what happens? Can Trump build any coalition, and with who? Can we get Iran to surrender without regime change? Can we get regime change without land troops or a huge loss of civilian lives? What happens in Iraq? The president has tried unsuccessfully in recent weeks to convince Shiite militias to disarm. It definitely wouldn't be a comfortable position for 10K troops there, nor in Afghanistan. Would terror attacks against US assets and citizens increase around the globe?
Without an exit strategy, how much of bombing campaign is practical? Russia and China will want their 30 silver coins to stay out of this. All hypothetical still, but curious as to how others view this situation.
