Texas Tech’s 2021 football season is less than a week, which means it’s time to offer up my annual bold predictions for the upcoming campaign.
1. For the first time since 2015, the Big 12 champion will be a team not picked first or second in the preseason poll.
The 2015 preseason media poll tabbed TCU as the preseason favorite, followed by Baylor. This made sense as both teams were coming off of seasons where they shared the Big 12 crown and Oklahoma was coming off of a rare five-win season.
The Sooners are the overwhelming pick to win the Big 12 in 2021, with Iowa State having a substantial lead for second in the preseason poll. The Sooners seem extremely formidable this season, with the return of quarterback Spencer Rattler and the addition of several key transfers like Eric Gray and Wanya Morris. The Cyclones, meanwhile, return the core of a team that has won 16 games in the last two seasons.
While Oklahoma’s roster talent is head-and-shoulders above most of the conference and its schedule seems extremely manageable, the Sooners under Lincoln Riley have always seemed to have more than their fair share of WTF games – even if some of those end up being wins. The Fighting Matt Campbells are fighting history and expectations, as Iowa State has never had a team win 10 or more games in a single season.
I’m predicting the Sooners luck will, at least temporarily, run out this season and the weight of expectations will be too much for the Cyclones. Texas, Oklahoma State or TCU will hang a surprising banner this season.
2. Kansas will finish with a better record than Kansas State.
There’s an interesting dynamic going on in the Sunflower State. For the longest time during his second stint as head coach, Bill Snyder used smoke and mirrors – and I say that in the most respectful way possible – to keep Kansas State extremely relevant in the Big 12. The Wildcats never had overwhelming roster talent, but they had a decisive coaching and discipline advantage and Snyder rode that to consistent eight- or nine-win seasons that almost always included victories over Texas Tech. Kansas, meanwhile, has had its football program kneecapped by absurd coaching hire after absurd coaching hire. The Jayhawks’ latest hire was the smartest they have made since Mark Mangino – low bar, I know – as Lance Leipold sustained excellence at a Div. III powerhouse and then, within six years, hung banners at Buffalo and appeared in as many bowl games as the Bulls had in the previous 126 seasons combined.
Kansas State, which lost its last five games of 2020, is coming back to Earth as it gets further away from the Snyder era, while Kansas should be fighting to resurface after being saddled for years by incompetent head coaches.
3. The Big 12 will not have any games canceled due to COVID-19.
The inability for COVID-affected teams to postpone or just pass on playing games this season will obviously incentivize administrations and coaches to find a way to make games happen no matter what.
The widespread availability and apparent adoption of the COVID vaccine within college football, coupled with the Big 12’s game threshold policy, results in a full slate of Big 12 football this season.
4. Colin Schooler will lead the Big 12 in tackles this season.
Believe it or not, Colin Schooler has been a member of Texas Tech’s football program for less than a year. He
announced his decision to head to Lubbock on Aug. 30, 2020. Less than a month later, Schooler logged seven tackles in his first action as a Red Raider. He finished the 2020 season with 63 tackles in nine games, an impressive total for someone thrown into the proverbial fire but a far cry from the 104 stops he averaged over three seasons at Arizona.
Now, with a full offseason under his belt, I’m betting that Schooler finishes off his collegiate career with another 100-plus tackle season.
5. Texas Tech will finish as a top-three rushing offense in the Big 12.
Sonny Cumbie’s TCU offense led the Big 12 in rushing last season and finished top-four in that category in three of the last four years. His former quarterback, Max Duggan, averaged more rushing attempts per game in 2020 than Kyler Murray did in 2018. The Horned Frogs had four running backs that were given consistent opportunities to produce.
There seem to be a lot of similarities between what Cumbie had last season in Fort Worth and what he has at his disposal now in Lubbock. Tyler Shough may not lead the Red Raiders in rushing yards like Duggan did at TCU last year, but he proved to be a willing runner at Oregon. SaRodorick Thompson is one of the more underrated running backs in the Big 12 when healthy, Xavier White was a revelation last season, Tahj Brooks proved to be more than capable as a freshman, Chadarius Townsend is dangerous in the open field and the last Texas Tech signee to rank higher than freshman Cam’ron Valdez was Jack Anderson in 2017.
Cumbie has option with the Red Raiders rushing attack and he has a track record of getting results on the ground.
6. Texas Tech’s defense will allow fewer than 30 points per game.
This marks the third consecutive year that I will be offering this up as a preseason prediction. Last season, the Red Raider defense surrendered 36.7 points per contest. The season before, in Keith Patterson’s debut season, the defense was a touchdown away of finishing under the 30 points per game mark.
Despite back-to-back misses, I’m bullish this season. I’m counting on what is arguably the best group of linebackers this program has ever had. I’m counting on a defensive backfield that is long and deep. I’m counting on a schedule that, outside of Spencer Rattler and Brock Purdy, is short on takeover talent at quarterback. I’m counting on the Red Raiders not forcing the fewest turnovers in the Big 12 again.
Hopefully third time is a charm. Fingers crossed.
7. Tyler Shough will be named Big 12 Newcomer of the Year.
This prediction really goes hand-in-hand with No. 9 as it’s unlikely one happens without the other either being right on target or close.
It’s pretty simple. Shough is a high-profile transfer at the sport’s highest-profile positions. He will have an opportunity to put up numbers in Texas Tech’s offense and a lot of credit will go his way if the Red Raiders exceed the Mariana Trench-esque expectations surrounding the team.
8. Texas Tech will snap its five-game losing streak to Iowa State.
The Cyclones enter the 2021 season ranked No. 7, the program’s highest-ever ranking in the AP Top 25, with hopes of becoming the first Iowa State football team to win 10 or more games in a season. Not only is Matt Campbell undefeated against Texas Tech, he has never faced a second-half deficit against the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech will be coming off of a bye week when it hosts Iowa State on Nov. 13. The Cyclones will travel to Lubbock a week after hosting Texas, with what could be a pivotal trip to Norman looming the following week.
The well-rested Red Raiders knock off the Cyclones and pocket their biggest win of the season.
9. Texas Tech will finish the regular season with an 8-4 record.
The only program that has consistently outclassed the Red Raiders over the last five seasons is Oklahoma. Iowa State can probably be thrown in there as well, though the gap doesn't seem nearly as wide.
After that? Four of Texas Tech’s last five matchups against Texas have been decided by one score. Three of the program’s last five outings against TCU and Kansas State were one-score games. The Red Raiders are an egregious officiating error away from winning four of their last five against Baylor. Texas Tech has outscored Oklahoma State by 20 combined points over the last five meetings. The program has won two-straight against West Virginia. Kansas is Kansas.
For as bad as the record has been over the last five seasons, for as bad as the product on the field has been over that period, for as little fun as fans have had over the last five years, Texas Tech hasn’t been
that far away from finishing on the right side of .500.
If you rattle off the things that must happen for Texas Tech to win eight games this season, I don’t think the list is very long or full of big asks.
a. The defense needs to be as good on the box score as it looked on the field late in the 2020 season.
b. Tyler Shough needs to be as good as he was last season for Oregon.
c. The kicking game needs to be better.
d. Between the offense taking care of the football and the defense getting takeaways, the Red Raiders can’t finish dead last in the Big 12 in turnover margin again.
e. Texas Tech has to sweep its non-conference schedule and find five wins against West Virginia, TCU, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Baylor.
I’m fully prepared to look really dumb here at the end of the season. It wouldn’t be the first time, nor will it be the last. But nothing about those five conditions seem like significant reaches.
10. The uncertainty surrounding Texas Tech’s long-term conference future will continue through the 2021 season.
This, perhaps, is not as bold as some of my other predictions this year. Between the formation of the
Great PACC TEN Circle Jerk, the Pac-12’s announcement that it won’t be pursuing expansion at this time and the fact that there’s no realistic path for Texas and Oklahoma to wriggle their way out of the Big 12’s Grant of Rights, there’s just not many reasons to think the status quo will change in the coming months.
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