I said I wouldn't start this until the playoffs were officially set but I am sitting at a computer now and might not be tonight and for sure wont be tomorrow morning before the Mavs game so here we go.
Predictions:
Suns over Pels in 4 or Clips in 5
Mavs over Jazz in 7 assuming Luka shows up in game 4 or earlier otherwise Jazz in 6
Warriors over Nugs in 6
Grizz over Wolves in 6
Suns over Mavs in 6 or Jazz in 4
Warriors over Grizz in 6
Suns over Warriors in 6
Heat over whomever in 5
76ers over Raptors in 7
Bucks over Bulls in 5
Celtics over Nets in 7
Heat over 76ers in 7
Bucks over Celtics in 6
Bucks over Heat in 6
Suns over Bucks in 7
First Round thoughts:
Predictions:
Suns over Pels in 4 or Clips in 5
Mavs over Jazz in 7 assuming Luka shows up in game 4 or earlier otherwise Jazz in 6
Warriors over Nugs in 6
Grizz over Wolves in 6
Suns over Mavs in 6 or Jazz in 4
Warriors over Grizz in 6
Suns over Warriors in 6
Heat over whomever in 5
76ers over Raptors in 7
Bucks over Bulls in 5
Celtics over Nets in 7
Heat over 76ers in 7
Bucks over Celtics in 6
Bucks over Heat in 6
Suns over Bucks in 7
First Round thoughts:
Suns/??: Suns roll. Clips length might win them a game or two but thats about it. This is honestly the least interesting series to watch for me and if theres something else on tv I'll probably be watching it over this series. Suns are elite and better than they were last year when they easily could have won a title. Clips might not even be here because apparently Covid is still a thing. When the possibilities are the bitch ass Clippers or constant speculation on if an obese man will return I'm good with just skipping this one. Just nobody on the Suns get hurt and we can start the fun with them in 2 weeks.
Mavs/Jazz: Everything depends on Luka, obviously. Mavs have won at a 62 win rate since they got their lineup back from Covid at the end of December. That includes material pre trade and post trade sample sizes. With Luka they are probably the Wests second best team. Without Luka? A team thats already only going to go 8 deep can still win a game and MAYBE two but they aren't winning a series against any top 8 team in the West. The Mavs play the slowest tempo in the NBA, the Jazz are fairly slow themselves, the Mavs defense and 3 point defense in particular is pretty good, both teams heavily dependent on the 3. Slow pace leading to low possession totals and heavy 3 point dependency? Tells me even small weird shooting variance and luck will feel massive in a series and in this sport massive shooting variance game to game isn't uncommon. That makes me pretty confident even without Luka its going to be 1-1 going to Utah. From there Luka just has to be able to play. If he can I think the Mavs win. If he can't I could see the Mavs getting game 5 back in Dallas when down 3-1 (plus because Luka is almost assuredly back by then) but I cant see them winning the series.
Dubs/Nugs: Going to be a delight of a series. Probably the leagues 2 most enjoyable watches in Steph and Jokic. Next year when Jamaal Murray and MPJ are healthy Denver wins this series (assuming MPJ becomes himself again). This year there is too much depth and defense on the Warriors for Jokic to beat them alone. Steph's injury probably really benefited Klay as he started looking more and more like himself throughout that time period where Steph was hurt. Kinda feels like the Clips/Mavs series of years past. One absurdly dominant player on one side with not nearly enough help trying to drag his team by a squad that is fully built and has their own superstar.
Grizz/Wolves: Please dont just view this as two small market teams and not watch. Several casual people will. This will be by far the series with the most entertaining games even if the result isn't as in doubt as some others. Two of the fastest paces in the league. Two uber athletic players in Ja and Ant on each side. Two home crowds that currently have more excitement for their franchise than they have had in over a decade. But for two teams that feel so similar in how inexperienced they are, athletic they are, and how fast they play the Wolves have significantly more defensive lapses (KAT is a disgraceful defender that Ja/JJJ will destroy in the PnR) and I cant see any way they win the series. They'll shoot their way to some wins but they aren't winning. But damn will it be a fun watch.
Heat/??: The Heat are good. The Heat have extensive playoff experience. The Heat have an elite coach. This wont be competitive regardless of who it is. Hope its Atlanta because Trae is more fun than the Cavs young guys but it doesnt matter. The nights this series is on will probably be the nights I do other stuff besides watch basketball.
76ers/Raptors: The Raptors are really good and haven't been watched enough. The 76ers have had some absolute mindboggling stretches of awful play, either in a game or across a group of games, combined with stretches they look like the best team in the league. Siakam is healthy this year and back to playing like a stud. VanVleet and Trent is a fun as hell backcourt. They have tons of length on the wings. You'll see some people picking the Raptors but I just think if its even remotely close the best player in the series decides the series and the 76ers have the best two.
Bucks/Bulls: Bulls have been a fun watch this year. Probably seeded one higher if they didnt have a long stretch of injuries in the middle of the season and they'd have a great chance at the 76ers. But I also have an entire career of data to look back on to see what DeRozan turns into in the playoffs. Hes gotten better with it but its still just so hard for a guy whos that ball dominant, that midrange dependent, and not an elite facilitator to win playoff series. And do I think he can do it in a series against the champs with the best player in the world along with two other elite defenders to throw at him and LaVine? Not a chance.
Celtics/Nets: I have absolutely no clue who wins this series. Nets still have the 3rd best odds at winning a championship despite everything they've done to themselves this year (spare me the adversity crap) and putting themselves down at a 7 seed with the most absurdly difficult path possible. The Nets still have a top 5 player in the world, a top 12ish player in the world, some decent role players, and the Celtics will be without their best rim protector. I almost kinda think the Nets will win now while typing it out. But despite all of this no matter if they have both KD and Kyrie out there or if they don't they just never looked consistent or dominate at any point this year and its hard to feel like its changing this late into the year. I think bringing Ben Simmons back around game 5 like some reports say is possible is just going to make that worse. They'll be close to or potentially even the favorites next season but a game 7 in Boston makes me think the Celtics win the series but I have no clue.
Mavs/Jazz: Everything depends on Luka, obviously. Mavs have won at a 62 win rate since they got their lineup back from Covid at the end of December. That includes material pre trade and post trade sample sizes. With Luka they are probably the Wests second best team. Without Luka? A team thats already only going to go 8 deep can still win a game and MAYBE two but they aren't winning a series against any top 8 team in the West. The Mavs play the slowest tempo in the NBA, the Jazz are fairly slow themselves, the Mavs defense and 3 point defense in particular is pretty good, both teams heavily dependent on the 3. Slow pace leading to low possession totals and heavy 3 point dependency? Tells me even small weird shooting variance and luck will feel massive in a series and in this sport massive shooting variance game to game isn't uncommon. That makes me pretty confident even without Luka its going to be 1-1 going to Utah. From there Luka just has to be able to play. If he can I think the Mavs win. If he can't I could see the Mavs getting game 5 back in Dallas when down 3-1 (plus because Luka is almost assuredly back by then) but I cant see them winning the series.
Dubs/Nugs: Going to be a delight of a series. Probably the leagues 2 most enjoyable watches in Steph and Jokic. Next year when Jamaal Murray and MPJ are healthy Denver wins this series (assuming MPJ becomes himself again). This year there is too much depth and defense on the Warriors for Jokic to beat them alone. Steph's injury probably really benefited Klay as he started looking more and more like himself throughout that time period where Steph was hurt. Kinda feels like the Clips/Mavs series of years past. One absurdly dominant player on one side with not nearly enough help trying to drag his team by a squad that is fully built and has their own superstar.
Grizz/Wolves: Please dont just view this as two small market teams and not watch. Several casual people will. This will be by far the series with the most entertaining games even if the result isn't as in doubt as some others. Two of the fastest paces in the league. Two uber athletic players in Ja and Ant on each side. Two home crowds that currently have more excitement for their franchise than they have had in over a decade. But for two teams that feel so similar in how inexperienced they are, athletic they are, and how fast they play the Wolves have significantly more defensive lapses (KAT is a disgraceful defender that Ja/JJJ will destroy in the PnR) and I cant see any way they win the series. They'll shoot their way to some wins but they aren't winning. But damn will it be a fun watch.
Heat/??: The Heat are good. The Heat have extensive playoff experience. The Heat have an elite coach. This wont be competitive regardless of who it is. Hope its Atlanta because Trae is more fun than the Cavs young guys but it doesnt matter. The nights this series is on will probably be the nights I do other stuff besides watch basketball.
76ers/Raptors: The Raptors are really good and haven't been watched enough. The 76ers have had some absolute mindboggling stretches of awful play, either in a game or across a group of games, combined with stretches they look like the best team in the league. Siakam is healthy this year and back to playing like a stud. VanVleet and Trent is a fun as hell backcourt. They have tons of length on the wings. You'll see some people picking the Raptors but I just think if its even remotely close the best player in the series decides the series and the 76ers have the best two.
Bucks/Bulls: Bulls have been a fun watch this year. Probably seeded one higher if they didnt have a long stretch of injuries in the middle of the season and they'd have a great chance at the 76ers. But I also have an entire career of data to look back on to see what DeRozan turns into in the playoffs. Hes gotten better with it but its still just so hard for a guy whos that ball dominant, that midrange dependent, and not an elite facilitator to win playoff series. And do I think he can do it in a series against the champs with the best player in the world along with two other elite defenders to throw at him and LaVine? Not a chance.
Celtics/Nets: I have absolutely no clue who wins this series. Nets still have the 3rd best odds at winning a championship despite everything they've done to themselves this year (spare me the adversity crap) and putting themselves down at a 7 seed with the most absurdly difficult path possible. The Nets still have a top 5 player in the world, a top 12ish player in the world, some decent role players, and the Celtics will be without their best rim protector. I almost kinda think the Nets will win now while typing it out. But despite all of this no matter if they have both KD and Kyrie out there or if they don't they just never looked consistent or dominate at any point this year and its hard to feel like its changing this late into the year. I think bringing Ben Simmons back around game 5 like some reports say is possible is just going to make that worse. They'll be close to or potentially even the favorites next season but a game 7 in Boston makes me think the Celtics win the series but I have no clue.
