Selection Sunday is less than a week away and Texas Tech will have an opportunity this week to boost its resume at the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City. To help us all get ahead of the curve, I’m going to start this thread tracking each of Tech’s potential opponents. Some brackets have the Red Raiders as high as a No. 5 seed, while others have Tech as low as the No. 8 line. On average however, most have Tech as a No. 7 seed as of Monday, but we’re going to break down each opponent Tech could play depending on where the Red Raiders end up being placed. This will be updated as teams play during the week. Let’s start with the No. 12 seeds and go from there…
No. 12 seeds:
Princeton - The Tigers spoiled a lot of brackets a season ago when they downed two-seed Arizona opening weekend. The Ivy League giants fired right back with another conference crown.
Record (Conf.): 24-3 (12-2 Ivy League)
Head coach: Mitch Henderson (12th season)
Key players: Xaivian Lee - Averages 17.7 points per game, 5.9 rebounds as a 6-foot-3 sophomore guard. Scored a season high of 33 against Harvard. Caden Pierce - Averages nearly a double-double with 16.3 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. 6-foot-7 sophomore who was Ivy League Rookie of the Year a season ago.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 2-3 (All Q2), wins over Hofstra and Duquesne, losses to St. Joseph’s, Cornell and Yale
KenPom Ranking (as of 3/11): No. 57
Next game: v. Brown, 10:00 a.m., March 16 UPDATE 2:28 p.m. 3/16, Princeton LOSES to Brown. Brown now with a chance for the Ivy League AQ, Princeton is done.
Grand Canyon - Chance McMillian gets a reunion against his former team in this matchup. The WAC champions enter their conference tournament as the No. 1 seed after the program’s second-ever conference title.
Record (Conf.): 27-4 (17-0 Western Athletic Conference)
Head coach: Bryce Drew (4th season)
Key player: Tyon Grant-Foster - Given a second chance after two heart surgeries put his basketball career in jeopardy last season at DePaul. Averages 19.3 points per game on 44/32/78 shooting splits. Dominated the conference on run to WAC Player of the Year, scored 21 and 18 against common opponent UT-Arlington.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 3-2, split Q1 with road win over San Diego St., neutral site loss to South Carolina. Q2 wins over San Francisco, Liberty, loss to Seattle U on the road.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 55
Next game: v. winner of California Baptist/Utah Valley & Seattle U, 8:00 p.m., March 15. UPDATE 9:57 a.m., GCU beats Seattle, 80-72, next game v. UT-Arlington, 10:30 p.m., Saturday. UPDATE 9:47 a.m. 3/17, GCU wins WAC championship over common opponent UT-Arlington, 89-74. Lopes on average at the 12 seed but could get love for the 11.
James Madison - The Dukes punched their ticket to the tournament Monday evening after taking it all the way in the Sun Belt Tournament. JMU earned its fifth conference title in program history and first appearance in the dance since 2013.
Record (Conf.): 31-3 (15-3 Sun Belt)
Head coach: Mark Byington (4th season)
Key players: Terrence Edwards Jr. - Capitalized on a 6MOY award a year ago to take the Sun Belt POTY this season. Averages 17.4 points and has 114 assists this season. Scored double-digits in 31 games this season.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 1-2, split Q1 with road win against Michigan State and loss to App. State. Q2 home loss to App State.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 60
Next game: NCAA Tournament First Round
South Florida - The Bulls clinched the AAC conference championship with two games to spare and rode a 15-game win streak throughout league play. Currently need one more win to match the program season record.
Record (Conf.): 23-6 (16-2 American Athletic Conference)
Head coach: Amir Abdur-Rahim (1st season)
Key players: Chris Youngblood - 6-foot-4 guard who followed Abdur-Rahim from Kennesaw State for his senior season. Averaged 15.3 points per game and was a 41 percent three point shooter. Selton Miguel - Another 6-foot-4 guard, in his second season with USF after two at Kansas State. Played 37 minutes against Tech in 2022. Averaging 14 points per game, mostly comes off the bench.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 6-3, won only Q1 game on the road against Memphis. 5-3 in Q2, with wins over Florida State (N), North Texas (A), FAU (H), SMU (H) and Charlotte (A). Three losses came on the road against Hofstra, UMass and UAB.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 88
Next game: v. winner of East Carolina/Tulsa, 12:00 p.m., March 15. *note - Tulsa snapped USF’s 15-game win streak in regular season finale* UPDATE 8:09 p.m. 3/15, USF beats East Carolina, 81-59, advances to AAC semis against UAB, 2:00 p.m., Saturday. UPDATE 9:08 p.m., 3/16, USF loses to UAB, 93-83. Likely eliminates them from contention.
No. 11 Seeds:
Virginia - Is there still bad blood here? That’s up to you, but the Cavaliers turned in another 20-plus win season to mark their third-consecutive. After losing in the first round a season ago and missing the tournament the year before that, Virginia seems set to return to the field.
Record (Conf.): 22-9 (13-7 ACC)
Head coach: Tony Bennett (15th season)
Key players: Reece Beekman - One of the country’s most elite defenders, earned ACC Defensive Player of the Year honors, along with All-ACC 2nd team. Averages 14.3 points per game and had 66 steals as a 6-foot-3 senior guard. Ryan Dunn - All-ACC Honorable Mention, averages 6.9 rebounds per game at 6-foot-8.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 8-9, 2-6 Q1 with wins over Florida (N) and Clemson (A). Q1 losses to Wisconsin (N), Memphis (A), Wake Forest (A), Virginia Tech (A), North Carolina (A), Duke (A). 6-3 in Q2 games, wins over Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech (A), Florida State (A), Wake Forest, Boston College (A). Losses to Notre Dame (A), NC State (A) and Pitt.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 67
Next game: v. winner of Boston College/Miami & Clemson, 8:30 p.m. March 14. UPDATE 8:32 a.m., Virginia beats BC 66-60, next game against NC State 8:30 p.m., Friday. UPDATE 9:58 a.m., Virginia LOSES to NC State, 73-65. Cavaliers possibly on the bubble now.
Colorado - A conference opponent for Tech next season, the Buffaloes look poised to make their return to the big dance this season. Colorado was ranked as high as No. 18 in the AP Poll this campaign.
Record (Conf.): 22-9 (13-7 Pac-12)
Head coach: Tad Boyle (14th season)
Key players: KJ Simpson - Consistent scoring force at 6-foot-2, averages 19.6 points per game. Scores on absurd 48/45/85 percent shooting splits, also averages 4.9 assists and 1.7 steals per game. Tristan da Silva averages 16.2 points per game, J’Vonne Hadley was recently named Pac-12 Player of the Week. Former TCU big man Eddie Lampkin also stars at center for the Buffaloes.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 9-9, 2-5 Q1 with wins over Washington (A) and Oregon (A). Q1 losses to Colorado St. (A), Arizona twice, Washington St. (A) and Utah (A). 7-4 Q2, one road win over USC. 27-point neutral site win over Miami.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 27
Next game: v. winner of Utah/Arizona State 10:30 p.m. March 14. Colorado split the season series against both teams. UPDATE 8:31 a.m. 3/15, CU beats Utah 72-58, next game against Washington State 9:30 p.m. Friday. UPDATE 9:59 a.m., CU beats WSU, 58-52. Next game v. Oregon, 8:00 p.m., Saturday. UPDATE 9:46 a.m., 3/17 CU loses to Oregon in Pac-12 chip. CU currently on an average 10-line, so likely will not see them in the first round.
St. John’s - The Red Storm have not played a First Round NCAA Tournament game in nine seasons and are hoping to end that streak in 2024. St John’s had its ups and downs this season, losing several close games in its first season under new management.
Record (Conf.): 19-12 (11-9 Big East)
Head coach: Rick Pitino (1st season)
Key players: Daniss Jankins - The 6-foot-4 guard and Dallas native followed Pitino from Iona and turned in an All-Big East Second Team showing. Leading scorer for St. Johns with 14.7 points per game, also led the team with 170 assists. Joel Soriano is a 6-foot-11 force who also averages 14 points per game to go along with 9.4 rebounds a night.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 9-11, 3-9 Q1 with wins over Villanova (A), Creighton and Butler (A). Q1 losses to Dayton, UConn twice, Creighton, Seton Hall, Xavier, Marquette twice and Providence. Q2 wins over North Texas, Utah, Xavier, Butler, Providence and Villanova. Losses to Boston College and Seton Hall.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 31
Next game: v. Seton Hall, 1:30 p.m. March 14. UPDATE 3/14 5:19 p.m., St John's beats Seton Hall, 91-72; Next game v. UCONN 4:30 p.m. Friday. UPDATE 3/15 8:11 p.m., St. John's loses to UCONN, 95-90. Currently projected now on the No. 10 seed line.
Drake - Making its second-straight NCAA Tournament appearance, the former home of Sardaar Calhoun stunned the next team on this list in the MVC Tournament to win it all. With the head coach’s son tearing up the league, Drake could make some noise in the big dance.
Record (Conf.): 28-6 (16-4 Missouri Valley Conference)
Head coach: Darian DeVries (6th season)
Key players: Tucker DeVries - Lethal scoring threat, averages 21 points per game and 6.9 rebounds as 6-foot-7 junior. DeVries won the Larry Bird Trophy, basically the MVC POTY, first to earn this honor back-to-back since Doug McDermott did it at Creighton.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 7-4, 4-1 Q1, two wins coming against Indiana State, one loss to the Sycamores, win over Nevada and Bradley. Split 3-3 Q2, two more victories against Bradley and one against Southern Illinois. Losses came to UAB, Belmont, and loss to common opponent Northern Iowa.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 50
Next game: NCAA Tournament First Round
Indiana State - Once thought a surefire lock, the Sycamores are now on the bubble after losing to Drake in the MVC Championship. The Fighting Larry Bird’s will be anxious when Selection Sunday comes around.
Record (Conf.): 28-6 (17-3 Missouri Valley Conference)
Head coach: Josh Schertz (3rd season, if you follow TrillyDonovan on X he talks about this guy constantly)
Key players: Robbie Avila - Sophomore sensation, very similar to Aly Khalifa of BYU. Averages 17.5 points per game with 122 assists as a 6-foot-10 center. Was named to the All-MVC First Team and is quite popular in social media circles. Isaiah Swope and Ryan Conwell are both 16 points per game scorers, both named to the conference second teams, while Conwell was named MVC Newcomer of the Year.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 5-5, 1-4 Q1 with lone win coming against Bradley. Losses to Michigan State, Alabama and twice to Drake. 4-1 in Q2, wins over common opponent UNI, Bradley, Belmont and Drake.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 43
Next game: TBD if selected for tournament
Richmond - The No. 1 seed in the A10 Tournament, the Spiders enjoyed a successful regular season after being absent from the tournament last season.
Record (Conf.): 23-8 (15-3 Atlantic 10)
Head coach: Chris Mooney (19th season)
Key players: Jordan King - 6-foot guard from Albany, NY., coming off back-to-back single-digit scoring performances after scoring double-figures in 16 straight before that. 42.6 percent shooter from beyond the arc.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 5-6, 1-2 Q1, lone win against Dayton, losses to Colorado and Florida at neutral sites. 4-4 in Q2 games, wins against UNLV, Loyola Chicago, Duquesne and Davidson. Losses in Q2 came against Boston College, VCU, George Mason and common opponent UNI.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 81
Next game: v. winner of George Mason/St. Joseph’s, 10:30 a.m., March 14. UPDATE 5:20 p.m. 3/14, Richmond LOSES to No. 9 seed St. Joseph's, 66-61 and are ELIMINATED from A10 Tournament.
No. 10 Seeds:
*TCU* is listed but will be excluded from this breakdown*
Michigan State - Entering the month of Izzo, the Spartans are a team to watch floating around the 9 or 10 line. Michigan State is making it three straight trips to the tournament after missing out in 2020 and 2021.
Record (Conf.): 18-13 (10-10 Big 10)
Head coach: Tom Izzo (29th season)
Key players: Tyson Walker - In his 2nd season at Michigan State, Walker is averaging 18.4 points per game and leads the Spartans with 57 steals. Walker was an All-Big 10 Second Teamer a season ago.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 8-13, 3-8 Q1 with wins over Indiana St., Illinois and common opponent Baylor. Losses to Duke, Arizona, Wisconsin twice, Nebraska, Northwestern, Illinois and Purdue. 5-5 Q2, wins over Maryland, Penn State, Northwestern and against common opponents Butler and Michigan. Losses James Madison, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana and Ohio State.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 19
Next game: v. Minnesota, 11:00 a.m., March 14 UPDATE 3/14 5:21 p.m., MSU beats Minnesota, 77-67, next game v. Purdue 11:00 a.m. Friday. UPDATE 3/15 8:12 p.m., MSU loses to Purdue 67-62. Currently projected on No. 10 seed line.
Mississippi State - The Bulldogs will enter the SEC Tournament with a lot to prove after dropping four-straight to end the regular season. Miss. State had just won five-in-a-row prior to the skid and will look to recapture good form.
Record (Conf.): 19-12 (8-10 Southeastern Conference)
Head coach: Chris Jans (2nd season)
Key players: Tolu Smith III - Injury-riddled but found a way to salvage the back half of his second en route to an All-SEC First Team honor. Averaged 16 points per game in just 19 games, season-high of 26 came against Kentucky, 6-foot-11 forward also has 60+ blocks in his career. Josh Hubbard - 5-foot-10 guard, stepped up in Smith’s place to average 16 points per game this season as a freshman. Has started the last 12 games after strong showings to open the season.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 6-11, 4-8 Q1, with wins over Washington St., Northwestern, Tennessee and Auburn. Losses to South Carolina, Alabama twice, Kentucky twice, Florida, Auburn and Texas A&M. 2-3 in Q2, wins over North Texas and LSU. Losses to Georgia Tech, Ole Miss and South Carolina.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 39
Next game: v. LSU, 12:00 p.m., March 14. UPDATE 5:22 p.m. Miss. State beats LSU 70-60, next game v. Tennessee 12:00 p.m. Friday. UPDATE 8:13 p.m., 3/15, Miss. State beats Tennessee 73-56. Next game against Auburn, 12:00 p.m. Saturday. UPDATE 2:29 p.m., Miss. State loses to Auburn. Bubble still maybe?
Seton Hall - After missing the tournament a season ago, the Pirates are slated to return most likely along the 10 line. Seton Hall will enter the Big East Tournament on the heels of two wins, one over DePaul and the other against Villanova.
Record (Conf.): 20-11 (13-7 Big East)
Head coach: Shaheen Halloway (2nd season)
Key players: Kadary Richmond - An impressive 6-foot-6 guard, Richmond was named to the All-Big East First Team. Richmond was top-11 in four of the major stat categories, averaging a line of 17.1 points/6.9 rebounds/5.1 assists/2.1 steals. Dre Davis, a fellow 6-foot-6 guard, averaged 14.9 points on the season, while Isaiah Coleman was named to the conference freshman team.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 9-10, 5-7 Q1 with wins over UConn, Marquette, Providence, St. John’s and common opponent Butler. Losses include UConn, Marquette, Creighton twice, Villanova, Xavier and common opponent Baylor. 4-3 against Q2, wins over Villanova, St. John’s, Xavier and Butler. Losses came to Providence, Iowa and USC.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 56
Next game: v. St John’s, 1:30 p.m. March 14. UPDATE 5:19 p.m. Seton Hall loses to St. John's, 91-72.
No. 9 Seeds:
*Oklahoma is listed but will be excluded from this breakdown*
Colorado State - Another team looking to make it back to the NCAA Tournament, the Rams had a solid year in a surprisingly loaded Mountain West conference. With several high key opportunities in the league bracket, CSU could add to its resume this week.
Record (Conf.): 22-9 (10-8 Mountain West)
Head coach: Niko Medved (6th season)
Key players: Isaiah Stevens - 6-foot guard who is CSU’s leading scorer averaging 16 points per game. Season-high of 29 came against Air Force in the season finale, dished out 14 assists in a game earlier this season.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 9-8, 5-7 Q1 with wins over Creighton, Colorado, New Mexico, San Diego St. and Boise State. Q1 losses came against Saint Mary’s, Utah State, Boise State, Nevada, San Diego St., New Mexico and UNLV. 4-1 in Q2, lone loss came to Nevada.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 36
Next game: v. San Jose St., 3:30 p.m., March 13
UPDATE 3/13 6:11 P.M. CSU wins 82-72, next game against Nevada, 8:00 p.m. Thursday. CSU beat Nevada Thursday night. Will play New Mexico, 11:00 p.m., Friday night. UPDATE 10:00 a.m., CSU loses to New Mexico 74-61. Looking like the Lobos chances to make the tournament keep rising. CSU might have enough to still make it in.
Nebraska - A long-time laughing stock of college basketball, the Huskers are set to make their first appearance in the big dance in a decade. After being picked to finish 12th in the Big 10 preseason poll, Nebraska stunned everyone by earning a third-seed big in the conference tourney.
Record (Conf.): 22-9 (12-8 Big 10)
Head coach: Fred Hoiberg (5th season)
Key players: Keisei Tominaga - The 6-foot-2 guard took the Big 10 by storm this season with several 30-point performances under his belt. Originally from Japan, Tominaga averages 14.6 points per game to lead the Huskers, while shooting a modest 37 percent from three. Rienk Mast and Brice Williams both average about 12 points per game, with Mast also being Nebraska’s leading rebounder pulling down 7.8 boards a night.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 8-9, 4-6 Q1 with wins over Michigan State, Kansas State, Wisconsin and perhaps one of the more impressive wins in CBB over Purdue. Losses in Q1 to Creighton, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern and Ohio State. 4-3 in Q2, evening the odds with Northwestern and Ohio State, as well as defeating Indiana and Michigan. Losses came to Minnesota, Rutgers and Maryland.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 32
Next game: v. winner of Indiana & Penn State/Michigan, 7:00 p.m., March 15. UPDATE 10:01 a.m., Nebraska destroys Indiana, 93-66, next game v. Illinois 2:30 p.m., Saturday. UPDATE 9:10 p.m., 3/16Nebraska blows lead to Illinois, 98-87. Sitting on what would likely be the 8-line now.
Florida Atlantic - A year after shocking the world on their way to a Final Four berth, the Owls returned with vengeance and settled in nicely in the American. A season ago, FAU swept Grant McCasland and North Texas, though both were only four-point margins. It would also be a reunion-ish for Vlad Goldin, the Owls’ center who spent time in Lubbock in what was a completely different era of Red Raider basketball.
Record (Conf.): 24-7 (14-4 American Athletic Conference)
Head coach: Dusty May (6th season)
Key players: Johnell Davis - After lighting up the NCAA Tournament a year ago, Davis was named the AAC Preseason Player of the Year and lived up to his billing. Davis averages 18.2 points per game on 47.9/43.8/85.1 shooting splits. Vladislav Goldin was a key component in the Owls’ team a season ago and averaged 15.2 points per game with 6.9 rebounds this season. While nobody on the other side would be a familiar face if Tech and FAU were to play, his time as a Red Raider is still worth noting.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 10-5, 2-2 Q1 with wins over Texas A&M (N) and Arizona (N). Two losses came against Illinois on neutral ground with a road loss to Memphis. 8-3 in Q2, with wins over Loyola Chicago, St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, Tulane, SMU, Memphis, North Texas and common opponent Butler. Losses came to UAB, USF and Charlotte, all on the road.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 37
Next game: v. winner of North Texas/Tulane, 6:00 p.m., March 15. UPDATE 10:02 a.m., FAU beats North Texas, 77-71. Next game v. Temple, 5:00 p.m., Saturday. UPDATE 9:11 p.m., 3/16, FAU LOSES to Temple 74-73. Opens the door for Temple or UAB to make it in.
No. 12 seeds:
Princeton - The Tigers spoiled a lot of brackets a season ago when they downed two-seed Arizona opening weekend. The Ivy League giants fired right back with another conference crown.
Record (Conf.): 24-3 (12-2 Ivy League)
Head coach: Mitch Henderson (12th season)
Key players: Xaivian Lee - Averages 17.7 points per game, 5.9 rebounds as a 6-foot-3 sophomore guard. Scored a season high of 33 against Harvard. Caden Pierce - Averages nearly a double-double with 16.3 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. 6-foot-7 sophomore who was Ivy League Rookie of the Year a season ago.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 2-3 (All Q2), wins over Hofstra and Duquesne, losses to St. Joseph’s, Cornell and Yale
KenPom Ranking (as of 3/11): No. 57
Next game: v. Brown, 10:00 a.m., March 16 UPDATE 2:28 p.m. 3/16, Princeton LOSES to Brown. Brown now with a chance for the Ivy League AQ, Princeton is done.
Grand Canyon - Chance McMillian gets a reunion against his former team in this matchup. The WAC champions enter their conference tournament as the No. 1 seed after the program’s second-ever conference title.
Record (Conf.): 27-4 (17-0 Western Athletic Conference)
Head coach: Bryce Drew (4th season)
Key player: Tyon Grant-Foster - Given a second chance after two heart surgeries put his basketball career in jeopardy last season at DePaul. Averages 19.3 points per game on 44/32/78 shooting splits. Dominated the conference on run to WAC Player of the Year, scored 21 and 18 against common opponent UT-Arlington.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 3-2, split Q1 with road win over San Diego St., neutral site loss to South Carolina. Q2 wins over San Francisco, Liberty, loss to Seattle U on the road.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 55
Next game: v. winner of California Baptist/Utah Valley & Seattle U, 8:00 p.m., March 15. UPDATE 9:57 a.m., GCU beats Seattle, 80-72, next game v. UT-Arlington, 10:30 p.m., Saturday. UPDATE 9:47 a.m. 3/17, GCU wins WAC championship over common opponent UT-Arlington, 89-74. Lopes on average at the 12 seed but could get love for the 11.
James Madison - The Dukes punched their ticket to the tournament Monday evening after taking it all the way in the Sun Belt Tournament. JMU earned its fifth conference title in program history and first appearance in the dance since 2013.
Record (Conf.): 31-3 (15-3 Sun Belt)
Head coach: Mark Byington (4th season)
Key players: Terrence Edwards Jr. - Capitalized on a 6MOY award a year ago to take the Sun Belt POTY this season. Averages 17.4 points and has 114 assists this season. Scored double-digits in 31 games this season.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 1-2, split Q1 with road win against Michigan State and loss to App. State. Q2 home loss to App State.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 60
Next game: NCAA Tournament First Round
South Florida - The Bulls clinched the AAC conference championship with two games to spare and rode a 15-game win streak throughout league play. Currently need one more win to match the program season record.
Record (Conf.): 23-6 (16-2 American Athletic Conference)
Head coach: Amir Abdur-Rahim (1st season)
Key players: Chris Youngblood - 6-foot-4 guard who followed Abdur-Rahim from Kennesaw State for his senior season. Averaged 15.3 points per game and was a 41 percent three point shooter. Selton Miguel - Another 6-foot-4 guard, in his second season with USF after two at Kansas State. Played 37 minutes against Tech in 2022. Averaging 14 points per game, mostly comes off the bench.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 6-3, won only Q1 game on the road against Memphis. 5-3 in Q2, with wins over Florida State (N), North Texas (A), FAU (H), SMU (H) and Charlotte (A). Three losses came on the road against Hofstra, UMass and UAB.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 88
Next game: v. winner of East Carolina/Tulsa, 12:00 p.m., March 15. *note - Tulsa snapped USF’s 15-game win streak in regular season finale* UPDATE 8:09 p.m. 3/15, USF beats East Carolina, 81-59, advances to AAC semis against UAB, 2:00 p.m., Saturday. UPDATE 9:08 p.m., 3/16, USF loses to UAB, 93-83. Likely eliminates them from contention.
No. 11 Seeds:
Virginia - Is there still bad blood here? That’s up to you, but the Cavaliers turned in another 20-plus win season to mark their third-consecutive. After losing in the first round a season ago and missing the tournament the year before that, Virginia seems set to return to the field.
Record (Conf.): 22-9 (13-7 ACC)
Head coach: Tony Bennett (15th season)
Key players: Reece Beekman - One of the country’s most elite defenders, earned ACC Defensive Player of the Year honors, along with All-ACC 2nd team. Averages 14.3 points per game and had 66 steals as a 6-foot-3 senior guard. Ryan Dunn - All-ACC Honorable Mention, averages 6.9 rebounds per game at 6-foot-8.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 8-9, 2-6 Q1 with wins over Florida (N) and Clemson (A). Q1 losses to Wisconsin (N), Memphis (A), Wake Forest (A), Virginia Tech (A), North Carolina (A), Duke (A). 6-3 in Q2 games, wins over Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech (A), Florida State (A), Wake Forest, Boston College (A). Losses to Notre Dame (A), NC State (A) and Pitt.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 67
Next game: v. winner of Boston College/Miami & Clemson, 8:30 p.m. March 14. UPDATE 8:32 a.m., Virginia beats BC 66-60, next game against NC State 8:30 p.m., Friday. UPDATE 9:58 a.m., Virginia LOSES to NC State, 73-65. Cavaliers possibly on the bubble now.
Colorado - A conference opponent for Tech next season, the Buffaloes look poised to make their return to the big dance this season. Colorado was ranked as high as No. 18 in the AP Poll this campaign.
Record (Conf.): 22-9 (13-7 Pac-12)
Head coach: Tad Boyle (14th season)
Key players: KJ Simpson - Consistent scoring force at 6-foot-2, averages 19.6 points per game. Scores on absurd 48/45/85 percent shooting splits, also averages 4.9 assists and 1.7 steals per game. Tristan da Silva averages 16.2 points per game, J’Vonne Hadley was recently named Pac-12 Player of the Week. Former TCU big man Eddie Lampkin also stars at center for the Buffaloes.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 9-9, 2-5 Q1 with wins over Washington (A) and Oregon (A). Q1 losses to Colorado St. (A), Arizona twice, Washington St. (A) and Utah (A). 7-4 Q2, one road win over USC. 27-point neutral site win over Miami.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 27
Next game: v. winner of Utah/Arizona State 10:30 p.m. March 14. Colorado split the season series against both teams. UPDATE 8:31 a.m. 3/15, CU beats Utah 72-58, next game against Washington State 9:30 p.m. Friday. UPDATE 9:59 a.m., CU beats WSU, 58-52. Next game v. Oregon, 8:00 p.m., Saturday. UPDATE 9:46 a.m., 3/17 CU loses to Oregon in Pac-12 chip. CU currently on an average 10-line, so likely will not see them in the first round.
St. John’s - The Red Storm have not played a First Round NCAA Tournament game in nine seasons and are hoping to end that streak in 2024. St John’s had its ups and downs this season, losing several close games in its first season under new management.
Record (Conf.): 19-12 (11-9 Big East)
Head coach: Rick Pitino (1st season)
Key players: Daniss Jankins - The 6-foot-4 guard and Dallas native followed Pitino from Iona and turned in an All-Big East Second Team showing. Leading scorer for St. Johns with 14.7 points per game, also led the team with 170 assists. Joel Soriano is a 6-foot-11 force who also averages 14 points per game to go along with 9.4 rebounds a night.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 9-11, 3-9 Q1 with wins over Villanova (A), Creighton and Butler (A). Q1 losses to Dayton, UConn twice, Creighton, Seton Hall, Xavier, Marquette twice and Providence. Q2 wins over North Texas, Utah, Xavier, Butler, Providence and Villanova. Losses to Boston College and Seton Hall.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 31
Next game: v. Seton Hall, 1:30 p.m. March 14. UPDATE 3/14 5:19 p.m., St John's beats Seton Hall, 91-72; Next game v. UCONN 4:30 p.m. Friday. UPDATE 3/15 8:11 p.m., St. John's loses to UCONN, 95-90. Currently projected now on the No. 10 seed line.
Drake - Making its second-straight NCAA Tournament appearance, the former home of Sardaar Calhoun stunned the next team on this list in the MVC Tournament to win it all. With the head coach’s son tearing up the league, Drake could make some noise in the big dance.
Record (Conf.): 28-6 (16-4 Missouri Valley Conference)
Head coach: Darian DeVries (6th season)
Key players: Tucker DeVries - Lethal scoring threat, averages 21 points per game and 6.9 rebounds as 6-foot-7 junior. DeVries won the Larry Bird Trophy, basically the MVC POTY, first to earn this honor back-to-back since Doug McDermott did it at Creighton.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 7-4, 4-1 Q1, two wins coming against Indiana State, one loss to the Sycamores, win over Nevada and Bradley. Split 3-3 Q2, two more victories against Bradley and one against Southern Illinois. Losses came to UAB, Belmont, and loss to common opponent Northern Iowa.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 50
Next game: NCAA Tournament First Round
Indiana State - Once thought a surefire lock, the Sycamores are now on the bubble after losing to Drake in the MVC Championship. The Fighting Larry Bird’s will be anxious when Selection Sunday comes around.
Record (Conf.): 28-6 (17-3 Missouri Valley Conference)
Head coach: Josh Schertz (3rd season, if you follow TrillyDonovan on X he talks about this guy constantly)
Key players: Robbie Avila - Sophomore sensation, very similar to Aly Khalifa of BYU. Averages 17.5 points per game with 122 assists as a 6-foot-10 center. Was named to the All-MVC First Team and is quite popular in social media circles. Isaiah Swope and Ryan Conwell are both 16 points per game scorers, both named to the conference second teams, while Conwell was named MVC Newcomer of the Year.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 5-5, 1-4 Q1 with lone win coming against Bradley. Losses to Michigan State, Alabama and twice to Drake. 4-1 in Q2, wins over common opponent UNI, Bradley, Belmont and Drake.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 43
Next game: TBD if selected for tournament
Richmond - The No. 1 seed in the A10 Tournament, the Spiders enjoyed a successful regular season after being absent from the tournament last season.
Record (Conf.): 23-8 (15-3 Atlantic 10)
Head coach: Chris Mooney (19th season)
Key players: Jordan King - 6-foot guard from Albany, NY., coming off back-to-back single-digit scoring performances after scoring double-figures in 16 straight before that. 42.6 percent shooter from beyond the arc.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 5-6, 1-2 Q1, lone win against Dayton, losses to Colorado and Florida at neutral sites. 4-4 in Q2 games, wins against UNLV, Loyola Chicago, Duquesne and Davidson. Losses in Q2 came against Boston College, VCU, George Mason and common opponent UNI.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 81
Next game: v. winner of George Mason/St. Joseph’s, 10:30 a.m., March 14. UPDATE 5:20 p.m. 3/14, Richmond LOSES to No. 9 seed St. Joseph's, 66-61 and are ELIMINATED from A10 Tournament.
No. 10 Seeds:
Michigan State - Entering the month of Izzo, the Spartans are a team to watch floating around the 9 or 10 line. Michigan State is making it three straight trips to the tournament after missing out in 2020 and 2021.
Record (Conf.): 18-13 (10-10 Big 10)
Head coach: Tom Izzo (29th season)
Key players: Tyson Walker - In his 2nd season at Michigan State, Walker is averaging 18.4 points per game and leads the Spartans with 57 steals. Walker was an All-Big 10 Second Teamer a season ago.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 8-13, 3-8 Q1 with wins over Indiana St., Illinois and common opponent Baylor. Losses to Duke, Arizona, Wisconsin twice, Nebraska, Northwestern, Illinois and Purdue. 5-5 Q2, wins over Maryland, Penn State, Northwestern and against common opponents Butler and Michigan. Losses James Madison, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana and Ohio State.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 19
Next game: v. Minnesota, 11:00 a.m., March 14 UPDATE 3/14 5:21 p.m., MSU beats Minnesota, 77-67, next game v. Purdue 11:00 a.m. Friday. UPDATE 3/15 8:12 p.m., MSU loses to Purdue 67-62. Currently projected on No. 10 seed line.
Mississippi State - The Bulldogs will enter the SEC Tournament with a lot to prove after dropping four-straight to end the regular season. Miss. State had just won five-in-a-row prior to the skid and will look to recapture good form.
Record (Conf.): 19-12 (8-10 Southeastern Conference)
Head coach: Chris Jans (2nd season)
Key players: Tolu Smith III - Injury-riddled but found a way to salvage the back half of his second en route to an All-SEC First Team honor. Averaged 16 points per game in just 19 games, season-high of 26 came against Kentucky, 6-foot-11 forward also has 60+ blocks in his career. Josh Hubbard - 5-foot-10 guard, stepped up in Smith’s place to average 16 points per game this season as a freshman. Has started the last 12 games after strong showings to open the season.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 6-11, 4-8 Q1, with wins over Washington St., Northwestern, Tennessee and Auburn. Losses to South Carolina, Alabama twice, Kentucky twice, Florida, Auburn and Texas A&M. 2-3 in Q2, wins over North Texas and LSU. Losses to Georgia Tech, Ole Miss and South Carolina.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 39
Next game: v. LSU, 12:00 p.m., March 14. UPDATE 5:22 p.m. Miss. State beats LSU 70-60, next game v. Tennessee 12:00 p.m. Friday. UPDATE 8:13 p.m., 3/15, Miss. State beats Tennessee 73-56. Next game against Auburn, 12:00 p.m. Saturday. UPDATE 2:29 p.m., Miss. State loses to Auburn. Bubble still maybe?
Seton Hall - After missing the tournament a season ago, the Pirates are slated to return most likely along the 10 line. Seton Hall will enter the Big East Tournament on the heels of two wins, one over DePaul and the other against Villanova.
Record (Conf.): 20-11 (13-7 Big East)
Head coach: Shaheen Halloway (2nd season)
Key players: Kadary Richmond - An impressive 6-foot-6 guard, Richmond was named to the All-Big East First Team. Richmond was top-11 in four of the major stat categories, averaging a line of 17.1 points/6.9 rebounds/5.1 assists/2.1 steals. Dre Davis, a fellow 6-foot-6 guard, averaged 14.9 points on the season, while Isaiah Coleman was named to the conference freshman team.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 9-10, 5-7 Q1 with wins over UConn, Marquette, Providence, St. John’s and common opponent Butler. Losses include UConn, Marquette, Creighton twice, Villanova, Xavier and common opponent Baylor. 4-3 against Q2, wins over Villanova, St. John’s, Xavier and Butler. Losses came to Providence, Iowa and USC.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 56
Next game: v. St John’s, 1:30 p.m. March 14. UPDATE 5:19 p.m. Seton Hall loses to St. John's, 91-72.
No. 9 Seeds:
Colorado State - Another team looking to make it back to the NCAA Tournament, the Rams had a solid year in a surprisingly loaded Mountain West conference. With several high key opportunities in the league bracket, CSU could add to its resume this week.
Record (Conf.): 22-9 (10-8 Mountain West)
Head coach: Niko Medved (6th season)
Key players: Isaiah Stevens - 6-foot guard who is CSU’s leading scorer averaging 16 points per game. Season-high of 29 came against Air Force in the season finale, dished out 14 assists in a game earlier this season.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 9-8, 5-7 Q1 with wins over Creighton, Colorado, New Mexico, San Diego St. and Boise State. Q1 losses came against Saint Mary’s, Utah State, Boise State, Nevada, San Diego St., New Mexico and UNLV. 4-1 in Q2, lone loss came to Nevada.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 36
Next game: v. San Jose St., 3:30 p.m., March 13
UPDATE 3/13 6:11 P.M. CSU wins 82-72, next game against Nevada, 8:00 p.m. Thursday. CSU beat Nevada Thursday night. Will play New Mexico, 11:00 p.m., Friday night. UPDATE 10:00 a.m., CSU loses to New Mexico 74-61. Looking like the Lobos chances to make the tournament keep rising. CSU might have enough to still make it in.
Nebraska - A long-time laughing stock of college basketball, the Huskers are set to make their first appearance in the big dance in a decade. After being picked to finish 12th in the Big 10 preseason poll, Nebraska stunned everyone by earning a third-seed big in the conference tourney.
Record (Conf.): 22-9 (12-8 Big 10)
Head coach: Fred Hoiberg (5th season)
Key players: Keisei Tominaga - The 6-foot-2 guard took the Big 10 by storm this season with several 30-point performances under his belt. Originally from Japan, Tominaga averages 14.6 points per game to lead the Huskers, while shooting a modest 37 percent from three. Rienk Mast and Brice Williams both average about 12 points per game, with Mast also being Nebraska’s leading rebounder pulling down 7.8 boards a night.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 8-9, 4-6 Q1 with wins over Michigan State, Kansas State, Wisconsin and perhaps one of the more impressive wins in CBB over Purdue. Losses in Q1 to Creighton, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern and Ohio State. 4-3 in Q2, evening the odds with Northwestern and Ohio State, as well as defeating Indiana and Michigan. Losses came to Minnesota, Rutgers and Maryland.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 32
Next game: v. winner of Indiana & Penn State/Michigan, 7:00 p.m., March 15. UPDATE 10:01 a.m., Nebraska destroys Indiana, 93-66, next game v. Illinois 2:30 p.m., Saturday. UPDATE 9:10 p.m., 3/16Nebraska blows lead to Illinois, 98-87. Sitting on what would likely be the 8-line now.
Florida Atlantic - A year after shocking the world on their way to a Final Four berth, the Owls returned with vengeance and settled in nicely in the American. A season ago, FAU swept Grant McCasland and North Texas, though both were only four-point margins. It would also be a reunion-ish for Vlad Goldin, the Owls’ center who spent time in Lubbock in what was a completely different era of Red Raider basketball.
Record (Conf.): 24-7 (14-4 American Athletic Conference)
Head coach: Dusty May (6th season)
Key players: Johnell Davis - After lighting up the NCAA Tournament a year ago, Davis was named the AAC Preseason Player of the Year and lived up to his billing. Davis averages 18.2 points per game on 47.9/43.8/85.1 shooting splits. Vladislav Goldin was a key component in the Owls’ team a season ago and averaged 15.2 points per game with 6.9 rebounds this season. While nobody on the other side would be a familiar face if Tech and FAU were to play, his time as a Red Raider is still worth noting.
Record v. Q1 & Q2: 10-5, 2-2 Q1 with wins over Texas A&M (N) and Arizona (N). Two losses came against Illinois on neutral ground with a road loss to Memphis. 8-3 in Q2, with wins over Loyola Chicago, St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, Tulane, SMU, Memphis, North Texas and common opponent Butler. Losses came to UAB, USF and Charlotte, all on the road.
KenPom rating (as of 3/11): No. 37
Next game: v. winner of North Texas/Tulane, 6:00 p.m., March 15. UPDATE 10:02 a.m., FAU beats North Texas, 77-71. Next game v. Temple, 5:00 p.m., Saturday. UPDATE 9:11 p.m., 3/16, FAU LOSES to Temple 74-73. Opens the door for Temple or UAB to make it in.
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