Mid-November marks a few things every year; Thanksgiving right around the corner, Christmas decorations going up (judge away), and, for the majority of my adult life, me wishing the Texas Tech football season could be put out of its misery. Unfortunately, this year is no different. I'm tired of watching it and I'm tired of talking about it. The worst part is that I did have some very tepid expectations for this year, which is my own fault, and that makes it hurt even worse. I'm still going to watch, I'm still going to talk about it and I'm still going to be emotionally invested because I have some kind of mental disorder.
There are quite a few of talking points from this game that are "big picture" and program wide discussions, that aren't really appropriate for what I'm doing here. I'll address those once this thing has concluded, I want a full body of evidence anyway. As far as the questionable in-game decisions read this.
Like every week, the charts below come from College Football Data's box score.
Scoring Opportunities consist of all offensive drives in which the ball has been advanced past the defense's 40 yard line.
This chart tells the story of the game, and the season, offensively. The Texas Tech offense had five scoring opportunities, and zero points. TCU's PPO is also bad, but in a game like the one we watched Saturday, and every TCU game in Fort Worth for that matter, points come at a premium. Just being able to grind out points when you can, will be the difference in the game. Speaking of scoring opportunities, I need to do a deep dive in what the Tech offense does after the defense forces a turnover because, in my mind, Tech has never produced points and rarely a first down. Those are the kinds of things good teams to do to win games.
Success Rate is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:
To the film...
Trust me, I understand that the offensive line is bad, and played worse on Saturday, but they were not at fault for everything going wrong offensively. On this play, they do not give Colombi and abundance of time, and I'd very much like to ask Deaton why he's spying a spy instead of helping Anderson, but it's enough to find a receiver. Pause the clip at 3 seconds, the coverage shifted to the check down... because why not... and that creates an opening for Colombi to hit Ezukanma on a dig. He's not wide open, but he's Power 5 open, Colombi's got to throw that ball into the space vacated.
Now, the two plays in this clip are not Colombi's fault. I would blame a combination of the offensive line, the play call, and the receivers. In the first play, watch the receivers, no one is even close to open, and I don't want to question effort, but it doesn't look like anyone really wants to be that open either. And it's hard to blame them based on the play call, it's third and fifteen, they know as well as we do, not one of those routes is getting a first down. I'm not saying there are a lot of plays that do, but let's stay out of those situations in general. The Tech offense had trouble doing that in the first half.
In the second play, would you look at that, it's the exact same play as the last third and long! I wonder if Gary freakin Patterson knew that was coming? I'm going to say yes, considering he sent a rush that forced Colombi away from the routes capable of getting a new set of downs. Not that it would've mattered, watch, or don't if you're easily squeamish, Carde and Burger get beaten so badly that Colombi has no chance of creating a successful play.
I know I give Yost a hard time, mostly deserving, but all of that comes from expectations. Him joining Wells on this staff initially was what made me accepting of the hire because I've seen what his offenses are capable of. Now, we haven't seen anything close to that since they have been on campus, but we have seen flashes of creativity. Look at the plays in this clip. I've been waiting for them to do this for two years, it's a great call when you're a "check with me" team to catch the defense off guard. You also see a little bit of the limits of Colombi's arm strength, plus a great adjustment to the under throw by Polk. That's exactly how you coach it.
I love the second play in this clip, pre-snap motion, play action, deep shot it's everything I want in a play, really. The TCU defense has to respect Kesean's speed on the jet sweep, you can see attention that flow demands from the way the defense moves. From there, the O Line, other than Anderson's missed block, does a good job of protecting and allowing Colombi to step up and deliver a perfect ball to Ezukanma. Why can't we see more of this?
That last clip is as frustrating as it is refreshing. It's frustrating because you can see the innovation Yost is capable of, and yet, 90% of the time, everyone watching knows what's coming. I know the offensive line is not good right now, I know the quarterback is limited, and I'm sure there are a myriad of problems we don't even know about, but Yost has the skins on the wall and the experience to scheme around most of these issues. I need to see everything he's got the next few games because... why not? What does the team have to lose? I'd feel much better about this staff going forward if I see them take big swings to close this thing out, play to win, instead of not to lose... especially since, odds are, more losses are coming regardless.
There are quite a few of talking points from this game that are "big picture" and program wide discussions, that aren't really appropriate for what I'm doing here. I'll address those once this thing has concluded, I want a full body of evidence anyway. As far as the questionable in-game decisions read this.
Like every week, the charts below come from College Football Data's box score.
Scoring Opportunities consist of all offensive drives in which the ball has been advanced past the defense's 40 yard line.
This chart tells the story of the game, and the season, offensively. The Texas Tech offense had five scoring opportunities, and zero points. TCU's PPO is also bad, but in a game like the one we watched Saturday, and every TCU game in Fort Worth for that matter, points come at a premium. Just being able to grind out points when you can, will be the difference in the game. Speaking of scoring opportunities, I need to do a deep dive in what the Tech offense does after the defense forces a turnover because, in my mind, Tech has never produced points and rarely a first down. Those are the kinds of things good teams to do to win games.
Success Rate is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:
- the offense scored
- 1st downs which gain at least 50% of the yards to go
- 2nd downs which gain at least 70% of the yards to go
- 3rd and 4th downs which gain at least 100% of the yards to go
To the film...
Trust me, I understand that the offensive line is bad, and played worse on Saturday, but they were not at fault for everything going wrong offensively. On this play, they do not give Colombi and abundance of time, and I'd very much like to ask Deaton why he's spying a spy instead of helping Anderson, but it's enough to find a receiver. Pause the clip at 3 seconds, the coverage shifted to the check down... because why not... and that creates an opening for Colombi to hit Ezukanma on a dig. He's not wide open, but he's Power 5 open, Colombi's got to throw that ball into the space vacated.
Now, the two plays in this clip are not Colombi's fault. I would blame a combination of the offensive line, the play call, and the receivers. In the first play, watch the receivers, no one is even close to open, and I don't want to question effort, but it doesn't look like anyone really wants to be that open either. And it's hard to blame them based on the play call, it's third and fifteen, they know as well as we do, not one of those routes is getting a first down. I'm not saying there are a lot of plays that do, but let's stay out of those situations in general. The Tech offense had trouble doing that in the first half.
In the second play, would you look at that, it's the exact same play as the last third and long! I wonder if Gary freakin Patterson knew that was coming? I'm going to say yes, considering he sent a rush that forced Colombi away from the routes capable of getting a new set of downs. Not that it would've mattered, watch, or don't if you're easily squeamish, Carde and Burger get beaten so badly that Colombi has no chance of creating a successful play.
I know I give Yost a hard time, mostly deserving, but all of that comes from expectations. Him joining Wells on this staff initially was what made me accepting of the hire because I've seen what his offenses are capable of. Now, we haven't seen anything close to that since they have been on campus, but we have seen flashes of creativity. Look at the plays in this clip. I've been waiting for them to do this for two years, it's a great call when you're a "check with me" team to catch the defense off guard. You also see a little bit of the limits of Colombi's arm strength, plus a great adjustment to the under throw by Polk. That's exactly how you coach it.
I love the second play in this clip, pre-snap motion, play action, deep shot it's everything I want in a play, really. The TCU defense has to respect Kesean's speed on the jet sweep, you can see attention that flow demands from the way the defense moves. From there, the O Line, other than Anderson's missed block, does a good job of protecting and allowing Colombi to step up and deliver a perfect ball to Ezukanma. Why can't we see more of this?
That last clip is as frustrating as it is refreshing. It's frustrating because you can see the innovation Yost is capable of, and yet, 90% of the time, everyone watching knows what's coming. I know the offensive line is not good right now, I know the quarterback is limited, and I'm sure there are a myriad of problems we don't even know about, but Yost has the skins on the wall and the experience to scheme around most of these issues. I need to see everything he's got the next few games because... why not? What does the team have to lose? I'd feel much better about this staff going forward if I see them take big swings to close this thing out, play to win, instead of not to lose... especially since, odds are, more losses are coming regardless.
