Obviously last week I whiffed on the Cowboys game after nailing it the week before. I'll take my lumps, but nothing ventured, nothing gained, so here's what I've got this week. My stats model says Cowboys -12 at home over the Bucs. Now the current version of the model does not take into account recent trends, and offensive performance against defenses is trending down, but defensive performances are trending up. Either way, looks like the Vegas line is -7, so that seems like an easy cover, plus the hopeful bounce back from the loss. I've got the over at 45, just one more than Vegas, so not sure how much confidence I have in that, especially with the decline in offense with the improvements on defense.
For reference, I do not gamble on sports, and am not offering this as gambling advice. Seriously just a hobby trying to refine this model I've been working on for a couple of seasons. I have lots of ideas for improvements to it, but I didn't do it full effort this year with too much stuff going on family wise.
For reference, I do not gamble on sports, and am not offering this as gambling advice. Seriously just a hobby trying to refine this model I've been working on for a couple of seasons. I have lots of ideas for improvements to it, but I didn't do it full effort this year with too much stuff going on family wise.
