How are CFB lines made? Tech line moving from +11 to +9 (presented by Sideline Provisions)
- Inside The Double T
- 29 Replies
In general, this is how college football lines end up being what they are:
Step 1 - Saturday night through Sunday afternoon
A few sportsbooks put up numbers on Saturday night and early Sunday morning. These numbers are largely worthless. The limits are really low and, even if they were high limits, a very small number of people can actually bet into them. A line is only predictive to the extent that (1) people can actually bet into them, and (2) the limits are high.
Step 2 - This step largely occurs on Sunday night through early Tuesday.
Sharp (but broke) people start betting into the lines and moving them significantly. In my experience, these are young guys that are super broke but also quite smart. They tend to lean on numbers - complex ones that aren't referenced by the talking heads on TV. These guys have their own models that spit out lines for every matchup. They are generally people that are really good at scraping play-by-play data (they are into coding or "good with computers"). These aren't "football people", per se. They are broke because they would not be betting into low limits if they were experienced / seasoned bettors or if their work was being used by seasoned bettors.
Sportsbooks LOVE these guys. They want nothing more than for them to bet into their lines at really low limits, allowing books to react to those bets / get good information for very cheap.
Sharp bettors HATE these guys. They see numbers Sunday through Tuesday that they really want to bet, but they are holding out until the limits get bigger. They don't want to bet $250 and destroy the market.
Step 3 - Tuesday through Friday.
Limits start to open up big time. These are now real lines that are predictive. They paint an accurate picture about the relative strength of teams. This is when the really sharp, serious people are betting into lines. Any movement in this stretch is the result of (1) new information, aka injury news or maybe the path of a hurricane or (2) someone that bets big and wins consistently has made a bet.
Step 4 - Saturday morning
Only the absolute sickos are betting now. In general, the only bets impacting the lines are massive ones made by people who have really solid injury information and, more importantly, know what to do with that information (aka they have a good understanding of what a specific player being in or out means to the line).
Bets from the "public" aka average joes -- regardless of size -- will not impact the line. This is one of the biggest misconceptions about big-market sports. Public betting percentages or public money does not impact the line outside of, maybe, only the Super Bowl.
I say all that to preface what's depicted in this tweet.
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This is the line movement at the sportsbooks taking the biggest college football bets (betcris, circa, and pinnacle).
Tech opens +10.5 or +11 at most places. And at those super small limits, the line dropped to as low as +8.5 at some spots. That tells me that the broke (relatively sharp) nerds liked Tech at +10 or better and they pounded this line into submission. Whether or not the big boys agree remains to be seen, although the line is holding up now below +9.5.
I wonder what these nerds see in Tech? Of course, those bets may be influenced more about something with Oklahoma State than Tech. I pegged this line at Ok. State -11 before last week's games (see below) and it seems like most Tech & Oklahoma State fans would make it higher than -10.
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Also shoutout to Sideline Provisions for sponsoring degenerate content like this. They are the real MVPs and the official apparel provider of Redraidersports.com
Owned and operated by Red Raiders, Sideline Provisions offers one of a kind items you can’t find anywhere else in the world. They are the original creator of the Guns Up logo and are the only place to get Dirk West original pieces.
Step 1 - Saturday night through Sunday afternoon
A few sportsbooks put up numbers on Saturday night and early Sunday morning. These numbers are largely worthless. The limits are really low and, even if they were high limits, a very small number of people can actually bet into them. A line is only predictive to the extent that (1) people can actually bet into them, and (2) the limits are high.
Step 2 - This step largely occurs on Sunday night through early Tuesday.
Sharp (but broke) people start betting into the lines and moving them significantly. In my experience, these are young guys that are super broke but also quite smart. They tend to lean on numbers - complex ones that aren't referenced by the talking heads on TV. These guys have their own models that spit out lines for every matchup. They are generally people that are really good at scraping play-by-play data (they are into coding or "good with computers"). These aren't "football people", per se. They are broke because they would not be betting into low limits if they were experienced / seasoned bettors or if their work was being used by seasoned bettors.
Sportsbooks LOVE these guys. They want nothing more than for them to bet into their lines at really low limits, allowing books to react to those bets / get good information for very cheap.
Sharp bettors HATE these guys. They see numbers Sunday through Tuesday that they really want to bet, but they are holding out until the limits get bigger. They don't want to bet $250 and destroy the market.
Step 3 - Tuesday through Friday.
Limits start to open up big time. These are now real lines that are predictive. They paint an accurate picture about the relative strength of teams. This is when the really sharp, serious people are betting into lines. Any movement in this stretch is the result of (1) new information, aka injury news or maybe the path of a hurricane or (2) someone that bets big and wins consistently has made a bet.
Step 4 - Saturday morning
Only the absolute sickos are betting now. In general, the only bets impacting the lines are massive ones made by people who have really solid injury information and, more importantly, know what to do with that information (aka they have a good understanding of what a specific player being in or out means to the line).
Bets from the "public" aka average joes -- regardless of size -- will not impact the line. This is one of the biggest misconceptions about big-market sports. Public betting percentages or public money does not impact the line outside of, maybe, only the Super Bowl.
I say all that to preface what's depicted in this tweet.
Login to view embedded media
This is the line movement at the sportsbooks taking the biggest college football bets (betcris, circa, and pinnacle).
Tech opens +10.5 or +11 at most places. And at those super small limits, the line dropped to as low as +8.5 at some spots. That tells me that the broke (relatively sharp) nerds liked Tech at +10 or better and they pounded this line into submission. Whether or not the big boys agree remains to be seen, although the line is holding up now below +9.5.
I wonder what these nerds see in Tech? Of course, those bets may be influenced more about something with Oklahoma State than Tech. I pegged this line at Ok. State -11 before last week's games (see below) and it seems like most Tech & Oklahoma State fans would make it higher than -10.
Login to view embedded media
Also shoutout to Sideline Provisions for sponsoring degenerate content like this. They are the real MVPs and the official apparel provider of Redraidersports.com
Owned and operated by Red Raiders, Sideline Provisions offers one of a kind items you can’t find anywhere else in the world. They are the original creator of the Guns Up logo and are the only place to get Dirk West original pieces.
STORY: Staff Predictions: A Bounce Back in Stillwater?
- By C. Champlin
- Inside The Double T
- 29 Replies
The Red Raiders are set for their third road test against a ranked opponent this season, having lost the first two against NC State and last week against Kansas State.
Tech is going to have to contain Spencer Sanders and the Cowboy offense while bouncing back from a lackluster offensive performance in Manhattan with a banged up group on offense.
A win would be a staple for the season and get you back over .500 in conference play while a loss would set you back to 3-3 (1-2) heading into the bye week.
The RedRaiderSports.com staff looks into the crystal ball for this weekend's tough matchup.
texastech.rivals.com
Tech is going to have to contain Spencer Sanders and the Cowboy offense while bouncing back from a lackluster offensive performance in Manhattan with a banged up group on offense.
A win would be a staple for the season and get you back over .500 in conference play while a loss would set you back to 3-3 (1-2) heading into the bye week.
The RedRaiderSports.com staff looks into the crystal ball for this weekend's tough matchup.
Staff Predictions: A Bounce Back in Stillwater?
Staff predictions for Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State
RRS TV: RRS TV: Matador Report presented by Homefield Apparel
- By B. Soliz
- Inside The Double T
- 26 Replies
OT: Buffalo Wild Wings specialty drink
- By B. Soliz
- Inside The Double T
- 83 Replies
So I’m here having a late lunch at Buffalo Wild Wings near Wolfforth. This is the featured drink:
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
3 Keys to the Game - Oklahoma State Edition (pres. by Fields of Gold)
- Inside The Double T
- 41 Replies
These "3 Keys to the Game" posts are starting to become repetitive. Because of the schedule we've played (TD+ underdogs for 4 straight games) and because of our issues offensively, whether our O-line plays "half-ass competently" or whether Donovan plays "the best game of his career" are enormous keys to the game. If one or both of those occur, we will have a decent-sized chance to win this game.
Everyone in Red/Black v. Oklahoma State's deep defensive front
If you were ranking the best 10 to 12 edge rushers in the Big 12, Oklahoma State legitimately may have four of them. Of those, #94 Trace Ford, #30 Collin Oliver and #89 Tyler Lacy probably go on to play in the NFL in some capacity. The fourth one (#9 Brock Martin) plays the most snaps and had 9 sacks last year. They rotate all of them.
Collin Oliver is a future high draft pick, is the reigning Big 12 Freshman of the year, and set the Oklahoma State record for most sacks (11.5) by a FR. He plays less than 30 snaps a game this year. It's nuts. There might be 1 or 2 other teams in the country that could afford to play Collin Oliver (or Trace Ford, for that matter) that few snaps per game. Oklahoma State can.
On the interior, they have a massive Samoan guy (#99 Sione Asi) who is literally 26 years' old. He's almost 2 years older than Bryson Williams.
Our offensive line has a really tough task ahead of it. Deja vu. We talk about tough schedules a lot -- and we've played a tough one -- but we've probably played the toughest schedule in the country from a putting-stress-on-your-OL standpoint. You would think a tough stretch like this would make us better. It surely has. But the talent just may not be there. And this Saturday could highlight that, once again.
It's going to be all hands on deck Saturday with respect to protecting Donovan. Kittley's going to need to be on one. Our tackles will need to play out of their minds. Donovan is going to have to feel pressure and react to it better than he has all season.
An interesting story line will be Monroe Mills (who was surely a scout team OT in Stillwater the last few years) going up against his old mates.
Are we seriously going to trot out Ty Buchanan at left tackle? He's played all of 0 FBS-level snaps in his career. "Oh, but it can't be worse than Caleb Rogers..." Uhh.. yes, it actually can.
Does Oklahoma State have issues defending the pass?
FBS opponents, in three games, are a combined 78/113 for 992 passing yards, 7 TDs and 3 interceptions against Oklahoma State. The QBs throwing those passes are, generally, not thought to be elite passers. Now, most of those yards occurred back in week 1 after Central Michigan was already down by multiple scores in the game. Baylor and Arizona State were also playing from behind.
Their personnel looks pretty good to me. An old-ish but slightly inexperienced secondary. They look like the opposite of us. All are HS signees, some of them we wanted. One that we didn't want (no one really did) -- also the best one (Jason Taylor II) -- graduated with Dadrian Taylor.
A couple of their defensive backs look sorta bad on paper. #2 Korie Black is a 3 star guy from Waco that we wanted out of HS. He's allowed the 2nd highest NFL QB rating on passes thrown his away (within the Big 12 conference). The other corner -- #7 Jabbar Muhammad, a 3 star from Desoto that we wanted -- has been targeted more than any other Big 12 corner. Being targeted at a really high rate is generally a bad sign for cornerbacks. #1 Xavier Benson, who plays almost every snap for them, is the worst Big 12 LB on paper at defending the pass (Kosi Eldridge isn't that far behind him).
Is Myles Price playing? Do we have better WRs than Baylor... or even Arizona State? Our WR corps is a bit of a mystery right now. The two pegged starters on the outside have already or are in the process of losing their starting jobs. Trey Cleveland has shown some flashes and Sparkman sure looks the part, but there is a ton of rhetoric in the Texas Tech talking head space that we just don't have the horses at WR.
Hopefully Emmett Jones & Co. are hearing some of that noise. We will need to have a really pissed off WR room come Saturday. Would be a really good time for them to prove those people wrong against a secondary that has lost its fair share of battles so far this season.
Can we make Oklahoma State One-Dimensional Offensively?
Typically, Oklahoma State has a stable of running backs. They don't this year. It's just one guy (#20 Dominic Richardson). He's good, but not anything close to as good as UT's backs or Deuce Vaughn. They feed him the ball. In two games against P5 teams, he has 52 carries for 208 yards. That's a significant chunk of their total snaps.
If we're able to take that away from them (it's possible that we can), Spencer Sanders will have to beat us in the drop-back passing game, an area that has been feast or famine for him in his career. They will also struggle to block our pass rushers, something that Gundy sounded a bit worried about in his presser this week.
Was last week a blip on the radar for our run defense? Was K-State unique enough in their run game to exploit something with our defense that not many other teams can? Will Oklahoma State's up-tempo offense give us problems? They really hurry up to the line of scrimmage to run the ball downhill at people.
Will this even matter if we can't score points.....
Ryan left it all out on the field in everything he did. In his honor, we bring you Fields of Gold, so that others facing bone cancer can keep on playing. A portion of proceeds from every case sold is donated to The Little Warrior Foundation.
The Little Warrior Foundation's mission is to fund & find a lasting cure for childhood cancer, with a specific focus on Ewing's Sarcoma.
shop.summerlandwinebrands.com
@Saynotobarefoot
Everyone in Red/Black v. Oklahoma State's deep defensive front
If you were ranking the best 10 to 12 edge rushers in the Big 12, Oklahoma State legitimately may have four of them. Of those, #94 Trace Ford, #30 Collin Oliver and #89 Tyler Lacy probably go on to play in the NFL in some capacity. The fourth one (#9 Brock Martin) plays the most snaps and had 9 sacks last year. They rotate all of them.
Collin Oliver is a future high draft pick, is the reigning Big 12 Freshman of the year, and set the Oklahoma State record for most sacks (11.5) by a FR. He plays less than 30 snaps a game this year. It's nuts. There might be 1 or 2 other teams in the country that could afford to play Collin Oliver (or Trace Ford, for that matter) that few snaps per game. Oklahoma State can.
On the interior, they have a massive Samoan guy (#99 Sione Asi) who is literally 26 years' old. He's almost 2 years older than Bryson Williams.
Our offensive line has a really tough task ahead of it. Deja vu. We talk about tough schedules a lot -- and we've played a tough one -- but we've probably played the toughest schedule in the country from a putting-stress-on-your-OL standpoint. You would think a tough stretch like this would make us better. It surely has. But the talent just may not be there. And this Saturday could highlight that, once again.
It's going to be all hands on deck Saturday with respect to protecting Donovan. Kittley's going to need to be on one. Our tackles will need to play out of their minds. Donovan is going to have to feel pressure and react to it better than he has all season.
An interesting story line will be Monroe Mills (who was surely a scout team OT in Stillwater the last few years) going up against his old mates.
Are we seriously going to trot out Ty Buchanan at left tackle? He's played all of 0 FBS-level snaps in his career. "Oh, but it can't be worse than Caleb Rogers..." Uhh.. yes, it actually can.
Does Oklahoma State have issues defending the pass?
FBS opponents, in three games, are a combined 78/113 for 992 passing yards, 7 TDs and 3 interceptions against Oklahoma State. The QBs throwing those passes are, generally, not thought to be elite passers. Now, most of those yards occurred back in week 1 after Central Michigan was already down by multiple scores in the game. Baylor and Arizona State were also playing from behind.
Their personnel looks pretty good to me. An old-ish but slightly inexperienced secondary. They look like the opposite of us. All are HS signees, some of them we wanted. One that we didn't want (no one really did) -- also the best one (Jason Taylor II) -- graduated with Dadrian Taylor.
A couple of their defensive backs look sorta bad on paper. #2 Korie Black is a 3 star guy from Waco that we wanted out of HS. He's allowed the 2nd highest NFL QB rating on passes thrown his away (within the Big 12 conference). The other corner -- #7 Jabbar Muhammad, a 3 star from Desoto that we wanted -- has been targeted more than any other Big 12 corner. Being targeted at a really high rate is generally a bad sign for cornerbacks. #1 Xavier Benson, who plays almost every snap for them, is the worst Big 12 LB on paper at defending the pass (Kosi Eldridge isn't that far behind him).
Is Myles Price playing? Do we have better WRs than Baylor... or even Arizona State? Our WR corps is a bit of a mystery right now. The two pegged starters on the outside have already or are in the process of losing their starting jobs. Trey Cleveland has shown some flashes and Sparkman sure looks the part, but there is a ton of rhetoric in the Texas Tech talking head space that we just don't have the horses at WR.
Hopefully Emmett Jones & Co. are hearing some of that noise. We will need to have a really pissed off WR room come Saturday. Would be a really good time for them to prove those people wrong against a secondary that has lost its fair share of battles so far this season.
Can we make Oklahoma State One-Dimensional Offensively?
Typically, Oklahoma State has a stable of running backs. They don't this year. It's just one guy (#20 Dominic Richardson). He's good, but not anything close to as good as UT's backs or Deuce Vaughn. They feed him the ball. In two games against P5 teams, he has 52 carries for 208 yards. That's a significant chunk of their total snaps.
If we're able to take that away from them (it's possible that we can), Spencer Sanders will have to beat us in the drop-back passing game, an area that has been feast or famine for him in his career. They will also struggle to block our pass rushers, something that Gundy sounded a bit worried about in his presser this week.
Was last week a blip on the radar for our run defense? Was K-State unique enough in their run game to exploit something with our defense that not many other teams can? Will Oklahoma State's up-tempo offense give us problems? They really hurry up to the line of scrimmage to run the ball downhill at people.
Will this even matter if we can't score points.....
Ryan left it all out on the field in everything he did. In his honor, we bring you Fields of Gold, so that others facing bone cancer can keep on playing. A portion of proceeds from every case sold is donated to The Little Warrior Foundation.
The Little Warrior Foundation's mission is to fund & find a lasting cure for childhood cancer, with a specific focus on Ewing's Sarcoma.
Summerland Wine Brands - Shop - Fields of Gold
@Saynotobarefoot