I haven't bet CFB in any real capacity the last few years, although I plan to try a little bit this fall. I do place bets on some of my accounts for people that bet CFB seriously. I'll try to give out some of those on Monday of each week in a post like this, and I reference a few below.
There is about a 40% chance that Tech is facing an 0-1 UH team in Week 2. UH is only 4-point road favorites at UTSA, which means they are in for a real dogfight. I do not like the thought of playing an 0-1 UH team, which would lessen the impact of a Tech win and make a loss even more unbearable. The good news is that UH is going to have to really show what they got schematically in week 1, whereas Tech theoretically won't have to.
NC State has moved from -8 to -11.5 on the road at ECU. I was told last Friday to bet NC State at -10 or better. The market loves NC State. They have gone from 15/1 to win the ACC in May to 6.5/1 now. Bottom line: People thought they were going to be good and the smart people who make the CFB betting markets said.. "nah, they're even better than you think."
Georgia is 18-point favorites against Oregon. They must be loaded once again. Ohio State is a whopping 17.5 point home favorites against Notre Dame. Those are ridiculously high spreads. The difference between the top 4ish teams and a top 10ish team is the same as the difference between a top 10 team and a top 50 team. P.S.: I was told yesterday morning to bet the over 58.5 in the Ohio State / ND game.
Mississippi State, who plays Memphis at home, has moved from an 8 or so point favorite over the summer to a 15-point favorite. Leach better win that game....
Future conference mate, Cincinnati, who lost a ton from last year's playoff team, opened as a TD underdog at Arkansas. That line is now Cinci +5.5, so the Bearcats have taken some educated $. That'll be an interesting one to watch.
I was told yesterday morning to bet the under 69 in the SMU/UNT game. It's now 70 or 70.5, which essentially means there is sharp money on both sides of that total. I trust my guy and have personally bet the under at 70.5. That will also be an interesting game in general. UNT looked pretty good on Saturday at UTEP. They have a freak middle linebacker, Phil Bennett calling the defensive plays, a crafty/mobile/experienced QB, and a strong running game. That should be a Superbowl-type vibe for UNT as 10-point home dogs against Rhett Lashlee and his first game as SMU's HC. SMU better show up to play that one.
North Carolina has cajones. They are playing a road game at giant-killer Appalachian State and, after not looking so good against a wounded FAMU team on Saturday, are 1-point underdogs. This is a bad situation for Mack Brown. Playing on the road against a smaller in-state school that will be foaming at the mouth to take an ACC scalp. Nothing to gain and a sh*tpile to lose. I'm very intrigued by this one.
I was told yesterday morning to bet the following:
Michigan State -20 v. Western Michigan
Tennessee -33.5 v. Ball State
Michigan -27 v. Colorado State
I'm not sure what the Tech v. Murray State line would be. I think I would make it somewhere between Tech -24.5 and Tech -27.5. What would you make it?
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