Other Big 12 Games
Iowa State -3 v. Baylor. 11am kickoff in Ames. Those give me the willies, for sure. Iowa State fans are amazing, too. I'm jealous. They won't give a rat's ass that the game is early. There will be a packed house and everyone will be losing their shit.
I was mildly surprised by this line opening around Iowa State -1 and even more surprised when it moved to ISU -3. This is the third week in a row where the line has moved hard against Baylor (take note of that.. someone that's smart and/or bets big thinks Baylor is overrated).
Baylor's QB (Blake Shapen) has really not been allowed to cut it loose thus far on the season. Just 33 for 54 against FBS teams this year for 321 yards, 2 TD, and 1 interception. His average depth of target against BYU was less than 7 yards.
Baylor's defense looks for real, though. They are top 40 in points per drive & yards per play allowed. That Samoan NT is a mountain of a man. Their secondary (led by Devin Lemear, Devin Neal, and Al Walcott) looks nasty.
Iowa State is probably the team I knew the least about going into the season. I don't think they have played a particularly strong schedule from an offenses-faced standpoint (Iowa & Ohio), but ISU's defense has been extremely stingy. 8th in the country in points per drive allowed & 4th in the country in yards per play allowed.
Baylor was a trendy pick to be the best team in the Big 12 over the summer. I wasn't really expecting them to be an underdog in half of their first 4 games (although they are catching two of the best road environments any Big 12 team has played in). I have no idea what to expect in this one. We should learn a lot about both teams. I'm rooting for Baylor to start out 2-2, that's for sure.
Kansas -7.5 v. Duke. This has to be the biggest favorite spot for Kansas over a P5 team in a long, long time. I remember in 2019, when we lost to Kansas as small favorites (Tech -4 or so), it was one of the closest spreads for Kansas in over a decade. Now they are 7.5-point favorites, and it actually opened up around Kansas -10. I regret not betting Duke +10 earlier in the week. Duke looks solid -- 3-0 and have already won on the road this year as double-digit underdogs.
Kansas is definitely a problem, though. They have one of the best players in the conference on defense (Safety, Kenny Logan). Their offensive scheme is a curve ball in the big 12. It's got a lot of option stuff to it. It protected their OL a lot more v. UH's front compared to what we did. Against P5 teams (both on the road), Jalon Daniels is 32 for 52 passing, 377 yards, 6 TDs, no picks. He has over 200 yards rushing in those 2 games with another 2 TDs on the ground. Yeah -- they are a tad scary.
That said, Kansas is lighting up the scoreboard wayyy more than they should to this point. 500 yards v. Tenn Tech = 56 points. 420 yards against WVU = 55 points. 438 yards v. UH = 48 points. That's weird. Not sustainable points production based on the yards gained. They were actually out gained by both WVU and UH.
KU is a strange team. Seemingly really well coached. Part of me is actually rooting for a 4-0 Kansas. Not sure why, really.
WVU -1.5 at Virginia Tech. Man, this is not a good sign for Virginia Tech. A 1-2 WVU team that just lost at home to Kansas is favored in a weeknight (Thursday) game in Blacksburg? That's a terrible sign for their progrum.
WVU doesn't seem nearly as bad as people (or their fans) think right now. They have completely lost their defense, however, which is sort of what's carried them since the latter half of the Dana years (113th in points per drive allowed; 101st in yards allowed per play).
I do think WVU's offense has potential, though. But if they can't find a way to win this game... do we see another preemptive-strike firing on a football coach to prevent them from pulling off any wild upsets and saving their job? Neal's in deep trouble (despite being owed like $16 million, which is totally insane).
TCU -1.5 at SMU. Another game involving a Big 12 team that's essentially a coin flip (line at -3 or less). SMU was extremely competitive in a 27-34 loss on the road last week at Maryland (were outscored 0-14 in the 4th Quarter). TCU's QB situation is intriguing -- Tanner Mordecai might be the best one in that game. TCU is still probably the biggest mystery in the Big 12, having had a bye week and 2 games against FCS & the lifeless corpse of Colorado.
The return of Dykes to SMU gives this another interesting plot line. I don't know enough about either of these teams to really have an opinion, but SMU is playing at home, with a good QB, and they have actually been tested this year. TCU better show up....
Oklahoma -12 / -13 v. Kansas State. Nothing about this game interests me, so of course it's the Big 12's 7:00pm kickoff on FOX. Kansas State came crashing back to earth last week after losing to Tulane. Their offense looks pedestrian to say the least (less than 4.7 yards per play). They even won the turnover battle 2-0 and managed to lose at home as double-digit favorites. Meanwhile, OU looks like pretty vintage OU to me. I don't really have an opinion on this game, though. 13 is a lot of points...
Miscellaneous
Tennessee -10.5 v. Florida. Tennessee has only been favored against Florida 5 times since Peyton Manning's last year there in 1997 (only 3 times since 2004). The biggest line in that timeframe was Tennessee -5.5. This could really be the first time ever that Tenn. has been a double digit favorite in the matchup. People that think Donovan has a "processing issue" should watch Florida's QB. He doesn't have a TD pass yet this season and has thrown 4 picks (he's very athletic, though). Meanwhile, Tennessee looks quite good.
A&M -2 v. Arkansas (Arlington). A&M's won 9 out of the last 10 matchups here. Just owned the Hogs. To show how far the perception of these teams has changed through the first few weeks, I was seeing A&M -10 in this game over the summer. A&M has some injuries in their secondary and will have to deal with a 240+ pound QB that really wants to run people over. Arkansas' defense has had some issues so far, including last week against one of the best FCS teams in the country (it was also the return of Bobby Petrino to Fayetteville). But A&M's offense is from the stone age. I think Arkansas gets this one.
In fact, Arkansas +1.5 or better is the official Sideline Provisions "Banger"** of the Week. Not only do I like Arkansas here in general, it's going to be double the fun to root against A&M and, hopefully, watch them implode. Kudos to Sideline Provisions for sponsoring gambling content on this site. That's a big plus in my book in addition to having some of the best Tech gear out there. Personally, I can't wait until they have some XL fit imperial hats in their store. It's a shame mellon-headed people like me can't find Tech hats to wear, but that's about to change thanks to Sideline Provisions.
** Please bet responsibly. This bet probably has just a 50% chance of winning... so.... proceed with caution.