I consolidated many of the questions to try to and answer as many people's concerns as possible. Full disclosure, I wanted to get to more, but my oral defense was a little more intensive than I expected. Regardless, your boy has now graduated from PhD student to PhD candidate.
It looked something like this when it became official.
The answer to this question is, simply, Texas Tech football is cursed. However, a non-supernatural answer can be found in a combination of two sources, both stemming from the same problem, poor recruiting. Actually, it’s probably better to say, recruiting that does not match offensive philosophy. Think back to the changes that have occurred on the offensive staff from 2019 until now, while each staff has run some sort of spread offense, they have gone about things differently. Yost was looking to replicate the Jordan Love season, a fast paced, downhill, simple scheme that attempted to steamroll opponents. It was the modern triple option, didn’t require complex reads, but big receivers, backs, and tight ends that create mismatches. Their recruiting matched this idea, Donovan Smith, Bradley, Sparkman, Tharpe, and offensive lineman that could take advantage of the use of tempo. Cumbie wasn’t really here long enough to make his mark on recruiting, but, like Kittley, was forced to retro fit his scheme with someone else’s players. Cumbie did a better job of that, but he also has more experience doing that, and an offense that more closely aligns with a Yost style of player. All of that to say, in Cumbie’s one year in charge he was also forced to play three different starting quarterbacks due to injury, which brings me to the second part of my hypothesis which we will get to momentarily.
Kittley’s offense doesn't necessarily need some physical specimen in order to succeed, the QB run game, I don’t believe, is something that he feels compelled to do, unless necessary. His idealized offense is looking for space and pace. Get the ball from the QB’s hands to a playmaker in space as quickly as possible. If you watch his offense at HBU or WKU, you will see what I mean. These big receivers, tight ends, and backs are not a requirement because he tries to create mismatches in space not man v man. This is why we are seeing a poor functioning offense and an obscene amount of QB injuries. If this offense is built on quick throws in space, who is providing that outlet for the QB on this team? So when those throws are not there, that is more time the OLine has to protect, more time for the DLine to create pressure, and more opportunities for QB injury. Typically, this can be somewhat alleviated by WR screens or a consistent run game, but both of those have been anything but consistent (with the exception of Tahj this season of course).
That brings me to the second part of my hypothesis, impact of poor recruiting, specifically, offensive line and quarterback. I found it difficult to specifically quantify recruiting numbers here because these two positions do not always follow a normal trajectory, but I think we can all agree that Tech has recruited behind these contemporaries for the better part of a decade, until recently, and that it would logically follow that signing “worse” players over time puts a team in a bad position. With those thoughts in mind, I wanted to see if I could find evidence of that neglect in the numbers. It made sense to me that poor offensive lineman would allow pressures, and pressures would accumulate to QB injury. I took the past three seasons, and found PFF’s numbers for total pressures of the passer of any kind and total number of dropbacks to see if I could quantify my line of thinking.
I mean, there’s something there, but probably not significant enough from which to draw major conclusions. It still looks like Texas Tech is just more unlucky than our contemporaries. The next chart is one that I think might show something, I took PFF’s data from the same three seasons and specifically looked at the amount of times each team’s QB had been “hit as thrown,” sacked, and forced to scramble.
I think we may have found something here, Tech’s QB’s are taking significantly more hits than our contemporaries in vulnerable situations. These are the kinds of hits that add up because it’s easy to look at our QBs’ injury history and argue that it's a “freak deal.” Or you could see the cumulative impact of being under pressure and taking hits over time, which I believe to be the case here. This argument, I believe, would preach patience, let’s see what this offense looks like when, for once, a play caller is able to use the players he brought in to do certain jobs. If our QBs are still getting injured at that point, yeah, we’re cursed.
I have been asking myself this same question, it’s another one of those “I know that Kliff and pre-Tech Kittley offenses took advantage of the middle of the field, so where is it now?” type questions. I also know that the reason that throwing to the middle of the field is a “cheat” code is because it’s difficult. It requires a good scheme, plus quarterback play, and receivers with the ability to adjust routes based on coverage. More than that, modern defenses are specifically designed to close the middle of the field and force the quarterback to use the sidelines and underneath routes.
The wild thing about this question, and our thoughts behind it, is that it might be a misnomer. Look at the passing charts below, both from last season and this season. All of these show that, not only is the middle of the field not being ignored, but that it actually is being taken advantage of and used to our advantage. Now, Morton’s numbers using the middle of the field this season are down, but I think you have to take injury into account there. I’m sure you don’t trust your velocity and precision when you are playing with the shoulder issues he’s had.
2022
2023
All of that being said, I present, without comment, Bailey Zappe’s last season’s passing chart. I take it back, I’ll make a comment, I think this shows that Kittley does know how to use the middle of the field and that there are other factors preventing that.
This is actually a pretty easy question to answer, they are incredibly inconsistent, and I don’t even think that is entirely their fault. Consider the QB situation they've had to deal with, especially considering each guy who has taken snaps is so different. The report, or lack thereof, matters, the way the ball looks coming at you changes, the velocity, the touch, the placement, the timing, the places on the field, all of that is different, for receivers, when the quarterback changes. That is not an excuse for their performance to date, but it is a major factor. As discussed in question one, when you combine poor recruiting, poor scheme fit, and a qb carousel, it’s not really a mystery as to why the passing game has been a miserable experience for all involved.
To solve this mystery, I thought it would be helpful to look at this group of receivers, and their production, compared to Kittley’s 2021 WKU group. I originally assumed that the WKU receiver group would be better at simply creating space and getting open. However, according to PFF, WKU averaged 7.2 contested targets per game and 3 contested catches per game. This year, Tech’s receivers have averaged 5.1 contested targets per game with 2.9 contested catches. Now this could just show that Tech’s receivers are less skilled when the ball is in the air, but I think this mainly goes back to quarterback. WKU had an NFL QB throwing the ball to them and placement matters when a receiver is “covered.” This does not show that Kittely suddenly forgot how to scheme wins for his receivers.
Since that didn’t really show much, the next thing I wanted to compare was the yards per route run, average depth of target, yards after catch per reception, percentage of targets caught, and average PFF grade between Kittley’s two offenses.
Again, kind of a mixed bag here. Based on this, the film I watched of WKU, and what I’ve seen from Texas Tech this year I think it’s safe to assume the biggest issue with Tech’s receivers is the lack of big play ability. WKU had a knack for turning a simple bubble screen into a big play, or taking a shallow cross, making a move, and generating an explosive. That’s the story told by the aDoT too, Kittley is trying to generate big plays by forcing the ball downfield, knowing that YAC is not a strength of this unit. This offense, and the receivers specifically, do not do the little things consistently enough to be a unit that helps win games, at the moment, they are having to be overcome to succeed. That is not a recipe for wins.
After looking at these things, I don’t feel better or worse about where we are headed offensively. I think personnel is a legitimate excuse, QB injuries is a legitimate excuse, and overall lack of execution is a legitimate excuse, but I have been disappointed in the lack of adjustment. It feels like there is an element of “banging our heads against the wall” when it’s pretty obvious that this personnel cannot accomplish the vision of the OC, and yet, the vision does not change. That’s coaching, it’s still imperative that you attempt to squeeze every drop of production from your personnel, and I’m not seeing that right now.
It looked something like this when it became official.
- Why are Tech’s quarterbacks always hurt?
The answer to this question is, simply, Texas Tech football is cursed. However, a non-supernatural answer can be found in a combination of two sources, both stemming from the same problem, poor recruiting. Actually, it’s probably better to say, recruiting that does not match offensive philosophy. Think back to the changes that have occurred on the offensive staff from 2019 until now, while each staff has run some sort of spread offense, they have gone about things differently. Yost was looking to replicate the Jordan Love season, a fast paced, downhill, simple scheme that attempted to steamroll opponents. It was the modern triple option, didn’t require complex reads, but big receivers, backs, and tight ends that create mismatches. Their recruiting matched this idea, Donovan Smith, Bradley, Sparkman, Tharpe, and offensive lineman that could take advantage of the use of tempo. Cumbie wasn’t really here long enough to make his mark on recruiting, but, like Kittley, was forced to retro fit his scheme with someone else’s players. Cumbie did a better job of that, but he also has more experience doing that, and an offense that more closely aligns with a Yost style of player. All of that to say, in Cumbie’s one year in charge he was also forced to play three different starting quarterbacks due to injury, which brings me to the second part of my hypothesis which we will get to momentarily.
Kittley’s offense doesn't necessarily need some physical specimen in order to succeed, the QB run game, I don’t believe, is something that he feels compelled to do, unless necessary. His idealized offense is looking for space and pace. Get the ball from the QB’s hands to a playmaker in space as quickly as possible. If you watch his offense at HBU or WKU, you will see what I mean. These big receivers, tight ends, and backs are not a requirement because he tries to create mismatches in space not man v man. This is why we are seeing a poor functioning offense and an obscene amount of QB injuries. If this offense is built on quick throws in space, who is providing that outlet for the QB on this team? So when those throws are not there, that is more time the OLine has to protect, more time for the DLine to create pressure, and more opportunities for QB injury. Typically, this can be somewhat alleviated by WR screens or a consistent run game, but both of those have been anything but consistent (with the exception of Tahj this season of course).
That brings me to the second part of my hypothesis, impact of poor recruiting, specifically, offensive line and quarterback. I found it difficult to specifically quantify recruiting numbers here because these two positions do not always follow a normal trajectory, but I think we can all agree that Tech has recruited behind these contemporaries for the better part of a decade, until recently, and that it would logically follow that signing “worse” players over time puts a team in a bad position. With those thoughts in mind, I wanted to see if I could find evidence of that neglect in the numbers. It made sense to me that poor offensive lineman would allow pressures, and pressures would accumulate to QB injury. I took the past three seasons, and found PFF’s numbers for total pressures of the passer of any kind and total number of dropbacks to see if I could quantify my line of thinking.
| Texas Christian | Baylor | OSU | Texas Tech | |
| 2021 | 124/303 | 116/400 | 27/513 | 142/452 |
| 2022 | 172/520 | 126/448 | 190/602 | 226/672 |
| 2023 | 109/358 | 103/304 | 70/296 | 85/335 |
| Percentage of total pressures of dropbacks | 34% | 29% | 20% | 31% |
| Injury-forced QB Changes | 6 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
I mean, there’s something there, but probably not significant enough from which to draw major conclusions. It still looks like Texas Tech is just more unlucky than our contemporaries. The next chart is one that I think might show something, I took PFF’s data from the same three seasons and specifically looked at the amount of times each team’s QB had been “hit as thrown,” sacked, and forced to scramble.
| Texas Christian | Baylor | OSU | Texas Tech | |
| Total Number of “Hit as Thrown,” Sacks, and Scrambles from 2021-2023 | 171 | 149 | 172 | 219 |
I think we may have found something here, Tech’s QB’s are taking significantly more hits than our contemporaries in vulnerable situations. These are the kinds of hits that add up because it’s easy to look at our QBs’ injury history and argue that it's a “freak deal.” Or you could see the cumulative impact of being under pressure and taking hits over time, which I believe to be the case here. This argument, I believe, would preach patience, let’s see what this offense looks like when, for once, a play caller is able to use the players he brought in to do certain jobs. If our QBs are still getting injured at that point, yeah, we’re cursed.
- Why do our QBs and OC refuse to take advantage of the middle of the field?
I have been asking myself this same question, it’s another one of those “I know that Kliff and pre-Tech Kittley offenses took advantage of the middle of the field, so where is it now?” type questions. I also know that the reason that throwing to the middle of the field is a “cheat” code is because it’s difficult. It requires a good scheme, plus quarterback play, and receivers with the ability to adjust routes based on coverage. More than that, modern defenses are specifically designed to close the middle of the field and force the quarterback to use the sidelines and underneath routes.
The wild thing about this question, and our thoughts behind it, is that it might be a misnomer. Look at the passing charts below, both from last season and this season. All of these show that, not only is the middle of the field not being ignored, but that it actually is being taken advantage of and used to our advantage. Now, Morton’s numbers using the middle of the field this season are down, but I think you have to take injury into account there. I’m sure you don’t trust your velocity and precision when you are playing with the shoulder issues he’s had.
2022
2023
All of that being said, I present, without comment, Bailey Zappe’s last season’s passing chart. I take it back, I’ll make a comment, I think this shows that Kittley does know how to use the middle of the field and that there are other factors preventing that.
- What’s the deal with Texas Tech’s receivers?
This is actually a pretty easy question to answer, they are incredibly inconsistent, and I don’t even think that is entirely their fault. Consider the QB situation they've had to deal with, especially considering each guy who has taken snaps is so different. The report, or lack thereof, matters, the way the ball looks coming at you changes, the velocity, the touch, the placement, the timing, the places on the field, all of that is different, for receivers, when the quarterback changes. That is not an excuse for their performance to date, but it is a major factor. As discussed in question one, when you combine poor recruiting, poor scheme fit, and a qb carousel, it’s not really a mystery as to why the passing game has been a miserable experience for all involved.
To solve this mystery, I thought it would be helpful to look at this group of receivers, and their production, compared to Kittley’s 2021 WKU group. I originally assumed that the WKU receiver group would be better at simply creating space and getting open. However, according to PFF, WKU averaged 7.2 contested targets per game and 3 contested catches per game. This year, Tech’s receivers have averaged 5.1 contested targets per game with 2.9 contested catches. Now this could just show that Tech’s receivers are less skilled when the ball is in the air, but I think this mainly goes back to quarterback. WKU had an NFL QB throwing the ball to them and placement matters when a receiver is “covered.” This does not show that Kittely suddenly forgot how to scheme wins for his receivers.
Since that didn’t really show much, the next thing I wanted to compare was the yards per route run, average depth of target, yards after catch per reception, percentage of targets caught, and average PFF grade between Kittley’s two offenses.
| Yards/ Route Run | aDoT | YAC/REC | Average Grade | |
| WKU | 1.5 | 7.62 | 6.4 | 68.43 |
| Texas Tech | 1.3 | 11.37 | 4.7 | 64.63 |
Again, kind of a mixed bag here. Based on this, the film I watched of WKU, and what I’ve seen from Texas Tech this year I think it’s safe to assume the biggest issue with Tech’s receivers is the lack of big play ability. WKU had a knack for turning a simple bubble screen into a big play, or taking a shallow cross, making a move, and generating an explosive. That’s the story told by the aDoT too, Kittley is trying to generate big plays by forcing the ball downfield, knowing that YAC is not a strength of this unit. This offense, and the receivers specifically, do not do the little things consistently enough to be a unit that helps win games, at the moment, they are having to be overcome to succeed. That is not a recipe for wins.
After looking at these things, I don’t feel better or worse about where we are headed offensively. I think personnel is a legitimate excuse, QB injuries is a legitimate excuse, and overall lack of execution is a legitimate excuse, but I have been disappointed in the lack of adjustment. It feels like there is an element of “banging our heads against the wall” when it’s pretty obvious that this personnel cannot accomplish the vision of the OC, and yet, the vision does not change. That’s coaching, it’s still imperative that you attempt to squeeze every drop of production from your personnel, and I’m not seeing that right now.
