I'm still getting used to having a good defense, and make no mistake, it is good. Despite what happened in the first half on Saturday, I am fully convinced that this unit is going to make plays that help Texas Tech win football games. This defense looks the part (for the first time in a long time), is full of quality depth, flies around, is physical, and plays with a moxie that says "yeah, you may get one on us, but it's not going to be easy or fun," and we saw all of that Saturday.
PPA and Success Rate are two metrics that really show how successful a defense is at stopping what an offense is trying to do, and just look at all that red (below average) for Houston after that first quarter.
I was confident that Houston would not be able to run the ball against Texas Tech, so it was encouraging to see that come to fruition. Tech fans know all too well to not assume wins, but this absolutely was one.
As much as I don't think it's indicative of the season going forward, I do think it's important to know what went wrong in that first half. Weirdness aside, that Houston offense should not have been able to drive down the field the way they did. First thing to notice is that Houston scored every time they had the "opportunity."
The other issue that plagued this defense, not only in the first half of this game, but all of last season, was getting off the field on third downs. Again, this was fixed in the second half, but it's worth looking at to see if any problems may persist as we get into real games.
First off, let me get this out of the way, Dana knows what he's doing offensively. We saw it for years at WVU and, in my opinion, we saw it Saturday... just with inferior talent. This first play is a perfect example of that. Tech gets a stop here, the blow out is on, in my opinion, instead, Dana draws up a play that forces Tech to commit too many bodies to one side of the field. Tune was never pitching this, it's QB counter, and Tech is immediately outnumbered (although it almost doesn't matter because Schooler nearly makes an unreal play), and Tune wiggles around for a big gain.
Third down after the onside kick, again, a chance to really get this game back before it gets out of control, but the Tech defense can't get a stop. It's hard to tell the coverage Tech is playing because of the camera angle, but it's safe to assume it's some kind of zone. Tech sends 4, Morgenstern on a twist stunt, unfortunately it was picked up, and if the scouting report said anything it's that Tune can pick a defense apart if he's kept clean... which he is here. Their TE finds a weak spot in the zone (which the coverages all seemed jacked up in the first half, some serious work was done at halftime), and picks up a crucial third down.
Finally, just as Tech felt like it was getting a hold on this game, the defense forces Houston into a third and long. A stop here gets Tech the ball back before half and a chance to double dip, but it was about now phones and this message board were being blown up about rushing just three. Tune is able to do whatever he wants back there and creates a throwing window to find another soft (putting it mildly, there was no one around him) spot in the Tech zone. So instead of 14-14 at half, it's 21-7. All of this was cause for concern going into half time, and, really, only a dominating performance like we saw in the second half would make me feel good about what this defense is moving forward. So, with all that, let's get to the good stuff.
The offense goes 3 and out on the first possession of the second half, and the defense basically has to get a stop. At this point, the energy felt different, even through my TV. Hutchings forces a hold on 1st down, and uses his high motor to get the sack on second down. It's important to point out that, even though we can't see it, the coverage must be better because Tune does have some time here, but it doesn't matter and the whole game changes from that point.
The next play is just a complete bust by the Houston offensive line, but it's nice to see it taken advantage of (although I'd like to see a cleaner hit) and directly leads to Riko's pick 6 on the next play. Like I said with the first play, the energy from the defense just feels different in the second half.
This next play is so so good and Schooler makes it look like nothing. He sees what's coming, but doesn't sell out for it until he knows for sure. Then he fights through the block, keeps his outside arm free, and makes a ridiculous open field tackle. It is so fun to watch him play football.
The next play is a direct result of that renewed energy the defense had in the second half. It starts with just a hint of a pass rush that hurries Tune some, and then a perfectly timed hit from Bouyer-Randle mixed with Monroe flying to the ball equals a turnover. The more we get of those types of plays, the more wins we'll enjoy.
The first half was full of cheap 3rd and 4th down short yard conversions... not so much in the second half. These next two clips end the first Houston drive after Tech took the lead. These are football's equivalent to "shut down innings," they are important. On second down you get two great pushes from Drew and Bradford, and, fittingly, those two finish off the tackle in the backfield. On 3rd down, watch just how quick Schooler is to the running back, it's borderline unbelievable. That tackle felt like he was trying to block smoke. Not only does Schooler get there, but makes a sure tackle to force a punt. Great, great play.
Finally, I added this play for a few reasons. The first being, just like the offensive line is the one cause for concern for that side of the ball, Patterson has got to figure out a way to manufacture a pass rush. Tech is sending 5, in an obvious passing situation, and not getting anywhere close to the quarterback. On the bright side, this is another example of what just flying around and being around the ball will do for a defense. Bouyer-Randle makes another really good play by tipping that pass, and then Frye makes an equally awesome diving interception. The last reason I included this clip is because watch the Tech players' reaction to ending this game, they get up and want to celebrate with their teammates. Why is that a big deal? Look who the two Houston Cougars are right there, Carter and Henry. It would have been so easy to get up and say something to them, but there's not even a hint of that. THAT is a culture shift, and THAT is what Tech has needed.
Just like with the offensive breakdown and the offensive line, it is extremely fair to question the pass rush moving forward. Tech will face better offensive lines, better offensive skill, and better quarterbacks, they MUST figure out a way to consistently make them uncomfortable. Unlike the offensive line, I think we will be able to see some improvement in that area the next two weeks if the defense just lives in the backfield against SFA and FIU. After the second half turnaround, I will not question this defenses ability, depth, or fight. However, the lack of pass rush will put a ceiling on what it can accomplish long term. This is fun, enjoy it.
PPA and Success Rate are two metrics that really show how successful a defense is at stopping what an offense is trying to do, and just look at all that red (below average) for Houston after that first quarter.
- Expected Points (EP) assumes that not all yard lines are created equal. In other words, each yardline is assigned a point value and measures the number of points that would be expected to be scored based on down, distance, and field position. A negative value means that the opposing team would be expected to score the next points in the game.
- Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).
- Both of those are used to calculate CollegeFootballData.com's PPA stat
- Success Rateis an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:
- the offense scored
- 1st downs which gain at least 50% of the yards to go
- 2nd downs which gain at least 70% of the yards to go
- 3rd and 4th downs which gain at least 100% of the yards to go
I was confident that Houston would not be able to run the ball against Texas Tech, so it was encouraging to see that come to fruition. Tech fans know all too well to not assume wins, but this absolutely was one.
- Line Yardsattempts to measure the number of running yards which are attributed to the offensive line. Yards are weighted as follows:
- losses - 120%
- 0-4 yards from LOS - 100%
- 5-10 yards from LOS - 50%
- 11+ yards from LOW - 0+
- Open Field Yards measures average yards per carry that comes from over 10 yards past the LOS.
- Power Success measures the percentage of running plays on 3rd or 4th down from 2 yards or less in which an offense either converted into a 1st down or scored a TD. 1st and 2nd down and goal plays within the 2 yard line are also included.
- Open Field Yards measures average yards per carry that comes from over 10 yards past the LOS.
- Second Level Yards measures the average yards per carry that are between 5 and 10 yards from the LOS.
- Power Success measures the percentage of running plays on 3rd or 4th down from 2 yards or less in which an offense either converted into a 1st down or scored a TD. 1st and 2nd down and goal plays within the 2 yard line are also included.
- Stuff Rate is the percentage of running plays stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
As much as I don't think it's indicative of the season going forward, I do think it's important to know what went wrong in that first half. Weirdness aside, that Houston offense should not have been able to drive down the field the way they did. First thing to notice is that Houston scored every time they had the "opportunity."
- Scoring Opportunities consist of all offensive drives in which the ball has been advanced past the defense's 40 yard line.
The other issue that plagued this defense, not only in the first half of this game, but all of last season, was getting off the field on third downs. Again, this was fixed in the second half, but it's worth looking at to see if any problems may persist as we get into real games.
First off, let me get this out of the way, Dana knows what he's doing offensively. We saw it for years at WVU and, in my opinion, we saw it Saturday... just with inferior talent. This first play is a perfect example of that. Tech gets a stop here, the blow out is on, in my opinion, instead, Dana draws up a play that forces Tech to commit too many bodies to one side of the field. Tune was never pitching this, it's QB counter, and Tech is immediately outnumbered (although it almost doesn't matter because Schooler nearly makes an unreal play), and Tune wiggles around for a big gain.
Third down after the onside kick, again, a chance to really get this game back before it gets out of control, but the Tech defense can't get a stop. It's hard to tell the coverage Tech is playing because of the camera angle, but it's safe to assume it's some kind of zone. Tech sends 4, Morgenstern on a twist stunt, unfortunately it was picked up, and if the scouting report said anything it's that Tune can pick a defense apart if he's kept clean... which he is here. Their TE finds a weak spot in the zone (which the coverages all seemed jacked up in the first half, some serious work was done at halftime), and picks up a crucial third down.
Finally, just as Tech felt like it was getting a hold on this game, the defense forces Houston into a third and long. A stop here gets Tech the ball back before half and a chance to double dip, but it was about now phones and this message board were being blown up about rushing just three. Tune is able to do whatever he wants back there and creates a throwing window to find another soft (putting it mildly, there was no one around him) spot in the Tech zone. So instead of 14-14 at half, it's 21-7. All of this was cause for concern going into half time, and, really, only a dominating performance like we saw in the second half would make me feel good about what this defense is moving forward. So, with all that, let's get to the good stuff.
The offense goes 3 and out on the first possession of the second half, and the defense basically has to get a stop. At this point, the energy felt different, even through my TV. Hutchings forces a hold on 1st down, and uses his high motor to get the sack on second down. It's important to point out that, even though we can't see it, the coverage must be better because Tune does have some time here, but it doesn't matter and the whole game changes from that point.
The next play is just a complete bust by the Houston offensive line, but it's nice to see it taken advantage of (although I'd like to see a cleaner hit) and directly leads to Riko's pick 6 on the next play. Like I said with the first play, the energy from the defense just feels different in the second half.
This next play is so so good and Schooler makes it look like nothing. He sees what's coming, but doesn't sell out for it until he knows for sure. Then he fights through the block, keeps his outside arm free, and makes a ridiculous open field tackle. It is so fun to watch him play football.
The next play is a direct result of that renewed energy the defense had in the second half. It starts with just a hint of a pass rush that hurries Tune some, and then a perfectly timed hit from Bouyer-Randle mixed with Monroe flying to the ball equals a turnover. The more we get of those types of plays, the more wins we'll enjoy.
The first half was full of cheap 3rd and 4th down short yard conversions... not so much in the second half. These next two clips end the first Houston drive after Tech took the lead. These are football's equivalent to "shut down innings," they are important. On second down you get two great pushes from Drew and Bradford, and, fittingly, those two finish off the tackle in the backfield. On 3rd down, watch just how quick Schooler is to the running back, it's borderline unbelievable. That tackle felt like he was trying to block smoke. Not only does Schooler get there, but makes a sure tackle to force a punt. Great, great play.
Finally, I added this play for a few reasons. The first being, just like the offensive line is the one cause for concern for that side of the ball, Patterson has got to figure out a way to manufacture a pass rush. Tech is sending 5, in an obvious passing situation, and not getting anywhere close to the quarterback. On the bright side, this is another example of what just flying around and being around the ball will do for a defense. Bouyer-Randle makes another really good play by tipping that pass, and then Frye makes an equally awesome diving interception. The last reason I included this clip is because watch the Tech players' reaction to ending this game, they get up and want to celebrate with their teammates. Why is that a big deal? Look who the two Houston Cougars are right there, Carter and Henry. It would have been so easy to get up and say something to them, but there's not even a hint of that. THAT is a culture shift, and THAT is what Tech has needed.
Just like with the offensive breakdown and the offensive line, it is extremely fair to question the pass rush moving forward. Tech will face better offensive lines, better offensive skill, and better quarterbacks, they MUST figure out a way to consistently make them uncomfortable. Unlike the offensive line, I think we will be able to see some improvement in that area the next two weeks if the defense just lives in the backfield against SFA and FIU. After the second half turnaround, I will not question this defenses ability, depth, or fight. However, the lack of pass rush will put a ceiling on what it can accomplish long term. This is fun, enjoy it.
