I don't know how Texas Tech's 2015 football season will play out. I don't know who will start at quarterback. I don't know if the defense will be improved. I don't know who will led the team in receptions, sacks or any other statistical category. I could certainly give you an educated guess in all of those areas, but I don't know for certain what the future holds.
Except this: The media -- and I count myself as part of this sad lot -- that covers the Big 12 will get it all wrong in the preseason.
Texas Tech will be picked by the media -- well, at least the 65 to 70 members of the media who bother voting in the first place -- to finish seventh or eighth in the Big 12. That's not at all unreasonable.
It's also fairly decent news if you're a Red Raider fan. If you look back at the first four seasons of the Big 12's current 10-team, round-robin format, the teams picked in the preseason to finish in the Nos. 6 - 8 range have together, on average, finished two spots higher in the final end-of-year standings.
The preseason sweet spots for the Big 12 media has been the Nos. 3 - 5 range and the No. 10 spot. This ragged collection of newspaper scribes, radio hosts, website operators and three-minute TV specialists have correctly picked seven finishes in those four spots over the last four years and just one in the other six spots.
While the media hasn't been great with its preseason polls, it's been downright awful in predicting preseason players of the year.
In the last eight seasons, of the three major preseason award selections, the media has correctly predicted two out of 24 -- Charles Sims (2009, Newcomer of the Year) and Ndamukong Suh (2009, Defensive Player of the Year).
There's also been an interesting SI curse quality to the league's Preseason Offensive Player of the Year nod. Last year's pick, Bryce Petty, suffered two transverse process fractures in the season-opener and missed the second half of Baylor's game of Texas Tech due to a concussion. Geno Smith was expected to do big things in 2012 but his West Virginia squad cratered in the second-half of the season. Jerrod Johnson was picked in 2011 and he ended the season riding the bench. Sam Bradford suffered a season-ending injury in Oklahoma's opener just weeks after his preseason selection. Adrian Peterson also had his season shortened due to injury the year he was chosen.
So when the Big 12 reveals its preseason poll and All-Big 12 teams in July, celebrate when the Red Raiders get picked eighth and send a preemptive fruit basket to Trevone Boykin.
Except this: The media -- and I count myself as part of this sad lot -- that covers the Big 12 will get it all wrong in the preseason.
Texas Tech will be picked by the media -- well, at least the 65 to 70 members of the media who bother voting in the first place -- to finish seventh or eighth in the Big 12. That's not at all unreasonable.
It's also fairly decent news if you're a Red Raider fan. If you look back at the first four seasons of the Big 12's current 10-team, round-robin format, the teams picked in the preseason to finish in the Nos. 6 - 8 range have together, on average, finished two spots higher in the final end-of-year standings.
The preseason sweet spots for the Big 12 media has been the Nos. 3 - 5 range and the No. 10 spot. This ragged collection of newspaper scribes, radio hosts, website operators and three-minute TV specialists have correctly picked seven finishes in those four spots over the last four years and just one in the other six spots.
While the media hasn't been great with its preseason polls, it's been downright awful in predicting preseason players of the year.
In the last eight seasons, of the three major preseason award selections, the media has correctly predicted two out of 24 -- Charles Sims (2009, Newcomer of the Year) and Ndamukong Suh (2009, Defensive Player of the Year).
There's also been an interesting SI curse quality to the league's Preseason Offensive Player of the Year nod. Last year's pick, Bryce Petty, suffered two transverse process fractures in the season-opener and missed the second half of Baylor's game of Texas Tech due to a concussion. Geno Smith was expected to do big things in 2012 but his West Virginia squad cratered in the second-half of the season. Jerrod Johnson was picked in 2011 and he ended the season riding the bench. Sam Bradford suffered a season-ending injury in Oklahoma's opener just weeks after his preseason selection. Adrian Peterson also had his season shortened due to injury the year he was chosen.
So when the Big 12 reveals its preseason poll and All-Big 12 teams in July, celebrate when the Red Raiders get picked eighth and send a preemptive fruit basket to Trevone Boykin.
