The Tech v. UH "opening line" thread is a lesson on why 90% of your college football bets should be made on Monday instead of 15 minutes before the game on Saturday. If you're betting on Saturday, when places like the Circa sportsbook are taking $100,000 bets on games, you are getting the worst of it. Trust me. But when you're betting on Monday, when the limits are small and the lines are moving like crazy, you actually have a chance of winning. My guy @Rolf C has Texas Tech +3.5 against UH, even though the line is Tech -3. That'll play. You're not going to ever sniff something like that betting on Saturday morning.
Big 12 Games
Texas Tech -3 v. Houston. I consider the Tech line to have "opened" at pickem. Just to make things easy, using whatever Circa opens up at makes the most sense, because they take the biggest bets. I guessed this line would be Tech -1.5, so not a huge surprise here. I do think this is a really rare situation when a team loses its starting QB and the line doesn't really move as a result of that news being made public. It's almost fair to say the line has moved in Tech's favor since that news came out. I bet the over and the total has been moved up quite a bit. I think both offenses are going to be effective. Their skill guys are for real and could give us serious problems. Kittley's pace was blistering and we should see it the full 60 minutes Saturday.
Alabama -20 v. Texas. Texas is apparently one of the best teams in the Big 12. Don't shoot the messenger, that's just what the gambling markets think since UT & OU have essentially the same odds to win the conference. Those same markets have Alabama as nearly a 3-TD favorite in Austin. It's unreal, honestly. The distance between the top 3-4 teams and the tier below them is enormous. It's almost like an FBS v. FCS type difference. It can't be good for the sport, as I have literally no interest in watching the Georgia's, Alabama's, Ohio State's donkey-punch teams. Apparently some people do, but not me.
In any event, this has to be one of the biggest underdog spots for UT at home in a long, long time. They are a ways away from competing in the SEC. Crazier things have happened, but it sure seems like they get destroyed here.
Iowa -3.5 v. Iowa State. Iowa's slap-fight with a directional Dakota school last Saturday has been well documented. Something like 23 total punts. I saw a Nebraska box score v. a Southland team where the score was 7-7 at halftime and Nebraska had snapped the ball 20 times on offense. It's hilarious that Iowa and Nebraska are part of the richest TV contract in the galaxy. Big 10 football sucks. I hope Iowa State rips their ass.
WVU -13 v. Kansas. Kansas is getting some respect here. They opened +17.5 some places and have been bet down to +13. It's very possible that they may not be terrible. Their QB is athletic, they have one of the best players in the conference on defense, and their coach seems to be admired by all. I'm not quite sure if I'm buying Kansas yet, but very interested to watch this one. A Kansas win in Morgantown could result in Neal Brown's head on a spike.
BYU -3.5 v. Baylor. This will be a good one. BYU must be good because Baylor is a respected team in the betting markets. This one opened BYU -2.5 and was bet up up to -4. I bet BYU -2.5 after seeing the number started to tick up to -3. We want BYU to win this one, right? Yeah. F*ck Baylor.
Oklahoma State -11 v. Arizona State. This line hasn't really moved much since opening.
Kansas State -8 v. Mizzou. No real thoughts here. Hope K-State wins.
OU -32.5 v. Kent State. Who cares.
TCU -37 v. Tarleton. Snooze.....
Other Games
North Carolina -7.5 at Georgia State. I continue to be intrigued by North Carolina. Mack Brown hires Gene Chizik to fix his defense, a guy who has been out of the game and shit-posting on the internet about politics for the last 5 years, then Chizik proceeds to get 60 points hung on him by App. State. Now North Carolina is traveling to Georgia State for what could be back-to-back weeks of giving a former FCS team the biggest home game in its progrum's history. Fascinating. I have a bet on North Carolina -7.
UTSA -2.5 v. Army. I'm extremely tempted to tickle UTSA -2.5 here because they looked extremely athletic against UH last Saturday. Their DL gave UH's OL fits the entire game and their WRs were consistently winning battles against UH's secondary. That should translate against Army, who will always be a strange matchup because of the triple. In any event, UTSA has to be the most athletic non-American G5 team in the country. We'll see... I'm looking for any excuse to bet UTSA.
Texas State -14 v. FIU. Texas State is terrible. They played one of the worst teams in the country last week (Nevada), were favorites on the road, and they got whipped 14-38. Spavital is in deep trouble. Now they get to play a Yost-OC FIU team that is even worse than Nevada. I must be sick in the head because this game interests the hell out of me.
La Tech -? v. SFA. You know who's really laid an egg this year? SFA and Colby Carthel. They lost huge as a TD favorite to Sterling "Shittin' All Over the Place" Galban and Jacksonville State in week 1, and then they got beat by freakin' Alcorn State last week as 2+ TD favorites. Now they have to play their FBS game against La Tech, and Sonny Cumbie probably doesn't want his offense to get punked by Carthel & SFA again the way it did last year. Outside of a 7-yard slant to Ezukanma that he took to the house, Cumbie's offense put up less 100 yards through the air v. SFA. It was turrible.
What games do yall find interesting?
Bets that I've made:
Arky/SC O52.5 -110
Duke/NW O54.5 -110
UT +20 -105
UNC -7 -110
Wake/Vandy O60.5 -110
Colorado +17 -110
Aggy -16.5 -110
UVA +5 -110
Tech/UH O63.5 -110
UH +3 -105
Liberty +6 -110
SJSU / Auburn U50.5 -110
BC/Va Tech U45.5 -110
UTEP -13.5 -105
BYU -2.5 -110
Fresno St. +1 -110
Ryan left it all out on the field in everything he did. In his honor, we bring you Fields of Gold, so that others facing bone cancer can keep on playing. A portion of proceeds from every case sold is donated to The Little Warrior Foundation.
The Little Warrior Foundation's mission is to fund & find a lasting cure for childhood cancer, with a specific focus on Ewing's Sarcoma.
shop.summerlandwinebrands.com
@Saynotobarefoot
Big 12 Games
Texas Tech -3 v. Houston. I consider the Tech line to have "opened" at pickem. Just to make things easy, using whatever Circa opens up at makes the most sense, because they take the biggest bets. I guessed this line would be Tech -1.5, so not a huge surprise here. I do think this is a really rare situation when a team loses its starting QB and the line doesn't really move as a result of that news being made public. It's almost fair to say the line has moved in Tech's favor since that news came out. I bet the over and the total has been moved up quite a bit. I think both offenses are going to be effective. Their skill guys are for real and could give us serious problems. Kittley's pace was blistering and we should see it the full 60 minutes Saturday.
Alabama -20 v. Texas. Texas is apparently one of the best teams in the Big 12. Don't shoot the messenger, that's just what the gambling markets think since UT & OU have essentially the same odds to win the conference. Those same markets have Alabama as nearly a 3-TD favorite in Austin. It's unreal, honestly. The distance between the top 3-4 teams and the tier below them is enormous. It's almost like an FBS v. FCS type difference. It can't be good for the sport, as I have literally no interest in watching the Georgia's, Alabama's, Ohio State's donkey-punch teams. Apparently some people do, but not me.
In any event, this has to be one of the biggest underdog spots for UT at home in a long, long time. They are a ways away from competing in the SEC. Crazier things have happened, but it sure seems like they get destroyed here.
Iowa -3.5 v. Iowa State. Iowa's slap-fight with a directional Dakota school last Saturday has been well documented. Something like 23 total punts. I saw a Nebraska box score v. a Southland team where the score was 7-7 at halftime and Nebraska had snapped the ball 20 times on offense. It's hilarious that Iowa and Nebraska are part of the richest TV contract in the galaxy. Big 10 football sucks. I hope Iowa State rips their ass.
WVU -13 v. Kansas. Kansas is getting some respect here. They opened +17.5 some places and have been bet down to +13. It's very possible that they may not be terrible. Their QB is athletic, they have one of the best players in the conference on defense, and their coach seems to be admired by all. I'm not quite sure if I'm buying Kansas yet, but very interested to watch this one. A Kansas win in Morgantown could result in Neal Brown's head on a spike.
BYU -3.5 v. Baylor. This will be a good one. BYU must be good because Baylor is a respected team in the betting markets. This one opened BYU -2.5 and was bet up up to -4. I bet BYU -2.5 after seeing the number started to tick up to -3. We want BYU to win this one, right? Yeah. F*ck Baylor.
Oklahoma State -11 v. Arizona State. This line hasn't really moved much since opening.
Kansas State -8 v. Mizzou. No real thoughts here. Hope K-State wins.
OU -32.5 v. Kent State. Who cares.
TCU -37 v. Tarleton. Snooze.....
Other Games
North Carolina -7.5 at Georgia State. I continue to be intrigued by North Carolina. Mack Brown hires Gene Chizik to fix his defense, a guy who has been out of the game and shit-posting on the internet about politics for the last 5 years, then Chizik proceeds to get 60 points hung on him by App. State. Now North Carolina is traveling to Georgia State for what could be back-to-back weeks of giving a former FCS team the biggest home game in its progrum's history. Fascinating. I have a bet on North Carolina -7.
UTSA -2.5 v. Army. I'm extremely tempted to tickle UTSA -2.5 here because they looked extremely athletic against UH last Saturday. Their DL gave UH's OL fits the entire game and their WRs were consistently winning battles against UH's secondary. That should translate against Army, who will always be a strange matchup because of the triple. In any event, UTSA has to be the most athletic non-American G5 team in the country. We'll see... I'm looking for any excuse to bet UTSA.
Texas State -14 v. FIU. Texas State is terrible. They played one of the worst teams in the country last week (Nevada), were favorites on the road, and they got whipped 14-38. Spavital is in deep trouble. Now they get to play a Yost-OC FIU team that is even worse than Nevada. I must be sick in the head because this game interests the hell out of me.
La Tech -? v. SFA. You know who's really laid an egg this year? SFA and Colby Carthel. They lost huge as a TD favorite to Sterling "Shittin' All Over the Place" Galban and Jacksonville State in week 1, and then they got beat by freakin' Alcorn State last week as 2+ TD favorites. Now they have to play their FBS game against La Tech, and Sonny Cumbie probably doesn't want his offense to get punked by Carthel & SFA again the way it did last year. Outside of a 7-yard slant to Ezukanma that he took to the house, Cumbie's offense put up less 100 yards through the air v. SFA. It was turrible.
What games do yall find interesting?
Bets that I've made:
Arky/SC O52.5 -110
Duke/NW O54.5 -110
UT +20 -105
UNC -7 -110
Wake/Vandy O60.5 -110
Colorado +17 -110
Aggy -16.5 -110
UVA +5 -110
Tech/UH O63.5 -110
UH +3 -105
Liberty +6 -110
SJSU / Auburn U50.5 -110
BC/Va Tech U45.5 -110
UTEP -13.5 -105
BYU -2.5 -110
Fresno St. +1 -110
Ryan left it all out on the field in everything he did. In his honor, we bring you Fields of Gold, so that others facing bone cancer can keep on playing. A portion of proceeds from every case sold is donated to The Little Warrior Foundation.
The Little Warrior Foundation's mission is to fund & find a lasting cure for childhood cancer, with a specific focus on Ewing's Sarcoma.
Summerland Wine Brands - Shop - Fields of Gold
@Saynotobarefoot
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