No data for this game. I think I see a Tech -43 out there. Lamar should be really bad but I have no idea on this one.
Re: last week... I was miserable in Reliant. The line movement on the morning of the game came out of nowhere. Tech ended up closing as a 2 point underdog, and the total shot up by about 4 points. Someone very respected dropped a bomb on Ole Miss & the Over and won big. Kudos to them. I was on the wrong side of a 72 under bet, but cashed Maryland and Notre Dame.
Miscellaneous:
Ranked CFB teams are typically over valued early in the season, just because ESPN puts a little number by their name.
Since 2008, ranked teams that are playing their first home game in week 2 are 24-47-1 against the spread ("ATS").
In early season/non conference games, ranked teams are 93 -112 ATS when playing a team that is coming off a loss ATS. There's always value in fading ranked teams.
Lopsided CFB games that I'm watching:
-Michigan getting a ton of support (>80% of $) against W. Mich.
-Same with Texas against Tulsa
- Same with GT against USF.
-Ohio State against Rutgers.
In week 1 NFL, there's been value in fading playoff teams from the prior year that open up against a non-playoff team. Since 2004, the non-playoff team is 55-38-2 ATS in that spot.
Notable NFL QB ATS records (more than 50 career starts):
Brady 132-81-8 (62%)*
Luck 41-27-2 (60.3%)
Rodgers 82-57-3 (59.0%)
Dalton 60-42-6 (58.8%)
R. Wilson 52-40-4 (56.5%)
Cam 60-47-2 (56.1%)
Brees 125-100-6 (55.6%)
Alex Smith 84-69-5 (54.9%)
Big Ben 101-95-2 (51.5%)
Stafford 54-67-4 (44.6%)
*Brady has been favored in 50 straight games, which is incredible. He's 32-16-2 ATS, which would be an astounding straight up record. The Pats & Brady buck every trend known to man.
The above QB numbers disturb me greatly. It's nearly impossible to pick NFL spreads above a 59% clip over the long term. Brady & Rodgers doing so are beyond belief. Pats & Packers lines are typically inflated because of all the public support they receive, yet all these QBs do is cash tickets. I'd hate to run the traps to figure out how many times I've been on the losing side of those games. I may need to rethink my NFL strategy and/or drop it all together.
Early NFL leans:
TB Bucs +10 against NO Saints: Most lopsided NFL game. 3/4 of the tickets and 2/3 of the $ is on the saints. Last year, I took the Browns week 1 in a nearly identical spot, and they covered in a 21-18 loss to the Steelers. Note also that NFL week one favorites of more than a TD are 19-36 ATS since 2003.
Bills. Another potential buy low play. Nathan Peterman starting at QB should generate a line shaded towards the Ravens. Heck, Matt Moore went 20-9 ATS.
Re: last week... I was miserable in Reliant. The line movement on the morning of the game came out of nowhere. Tech ended up closing as a 2 point underdog, and the total shot up by about 4 points. Someone very respected dropped a bomb on Ole Miss & the Over and won big. Kudos to them. I was on the wrong side of a 72 under bet, but cashed Maryland and Notre Dame.
Miscellaneous:
Ranked CFB teams are typically over valued early in the season, just because ESPN puts a little number by their name.
Since 2008, ranked teams that are playing their first home game in week 2 are 24-47-1 against the spread ("ATS").
In early season/non conference games, ranked teams are 93 -112 ATS when playing a team that is coming off a loss ATS. There's always value in fading ranked teams.
Lopsided CFB games that I'm watching:
-Michigan getting a ton of support (>80% of $) against W. Mich.
-Same with Texas against Tulsa
- Same with GT against USF.
-Ohio State against Rutgers.
In week 1 NFL, there's been value in fading playoff teams from the prior year that open up against a non-playoff team. Since 2004, the non-playoff team is 55-38-2 ATS in that spot.
Notable NFL QB ATS records (more than 50 career starts):
Brady 132-81-8 (62%)*
Luck 41-27-2 (60.3%)
Rodgers 82-57-3 (59.0%)
Dalton 60-42-6 (58.8%)
R. Wilson 52-40-4 (56.5%)
Cam 60-47-2 (56.1%)
Brees 125-100-6 (55.6%)
Alex Smith 84-69-5 (54.9%)
Big Ben 101-95-2 (51.5%)
Stafford 54-67-4 (44.6%)
*Brady has been favored in 50 straight games, which is incredible. He's 32-16-2 ATS, which would be an astounding straight up record. The Pats & Brady buck every trend known to man.
The above QB numbers disturb me greatly. It's nearly impossible to pick NFL spreads above a 59% clip over the long term. Brady & Rodgers doing so are beyond belief. Pats & Packers lines are typically inflated because of all the public support they receive, yet all these QBs do is cash tickets. I'd hate to run the traps to figure out how many times I've been on the losing side of those games. I may need to rethink my NFL strategy and/or drop it all together.
Early NFL leans:
TB Bucs +10 against NO Saints: Most lopsided NFL game. 3/4 of the tickets and 2/3 of the $ is on the saints. Last year, I took the Browns week 1 in a nearly identical spot, and they covered in a 21-18 loss to the Steelers. Note also that NFL week one favorites of more than a TD are 19-36 ATS since 2003.
Bills. Another potential buy low play. Nathan Peterman starting at QB should generate a line shaded towards the Ravens. Heck, Matt Moore went 20-9 ATS.
