Big 12 Games:
Iowa State -3 at Kansas:
I know Kansas is a darling right now and is 4-0, but it's still a shock to see Kansas be just a slight underdog to a quasi-legitimate Big 12 team.
Jalon Daniels has been almost unstoppable. Against 3 P5 teams (including UH), he has generated 987 yards on 119 passes or rush attempts, 13 TDs and just one lost fumble. That's over 8 yards per pass attempt or rush. I'm kind of wanting to see someone stop him just to prove that it can be done. Iowa State should be the best defense they have played thus far (and it should be mad after getting torched last week).
Hunter Dekkers really struggled against Baylor's defensive front (which appears extremely formidable). He threw two interceptions in the second half and was sacked 5 times. A loss here for Matt Campbell's squad and he is on a path to fighting it out with WVU for last place in the Big 12. Sure, it's early. But that's the path they are on if they leave Lawrence with a loss.
Baylor -2 v. Oklahoma State:
Baylor's offense is the biggest curve ball in the Big 12. I thought about giving that nod to Kansas, since they are so run heavy, including some option stuff, but Baylor's heavy personnel from under center (or pistol) gets the nod. Baylor averaged over 1.7 TEs on the field per snap against Iowa State, all of them 250 pound plus. That's going to distinguish what they do offensively from the rest of the Big 12 by quite a bit.
Last week against Iowa State was a really solid showing from Blake Shapen (240 yards, 3 TDs, 73% completion, 11 yard Average Depth of Target (so throwing over 2x as far downfield as what Donovan did against UT)). It was a good thing for Baylor because their power running game was not terribly effective against Iowa State's front.
I'm still not quite sure what Oklahoma State's got this year. They are averaging a whopping 7+ yards per offensive snap. But they haven't really played anyone yet, and the only P5 team they played apparently had a trojan horse divulging secrets in an effort to sabotage Herm Edwards.
With OU dropping a home game, Baylor is in really good shape if they can beat Oklahoma State at home. That was a big win for them in Ames. Teams that will be (or could have been) in the conference race will drop one there.
Oklahoma -6.5 @ TCU:
OU got off to a bad start against Kansas State (down 14-0 through 2 possessions each) and weren't able to take back the lead. However.... their offense still looks scary strong. After those first two possessions, OU scored 3.4 points per drive and averaged a whopping 8.8 yards per play in a very balanced attack. And that's against a K-State defense that looks to be fairly stout.
Marvin Mims might be the scariest WR to defend or game plan against in the conference. And Dillon Gabriel looks like a major hit out of the transfer portal (he threw for 329 yards, 4 TDs, 0 interceptions; to go with 66 yards rushing on 3 carries).
OU's offense is clearly the class of the Big 12. And I don't know that it's particularly close.
Their defense, however, showed some warts on Saturday. Allowed 4 rushing TDs on 44 Kansas State carries to the tune of 6.3 yards per rush. There was really only the one back-breaking long run by Adrian Martinez, so they were getting gashed pretty regularly on the ground (over 9 runs of 10+ yards -- we allowed just 4 on Saturday). OU's defense also allowed what has appeared to be a really pedestrian KSU passing attack finally get some traction. Adrian Martinez threw for 240 yards on just 34 attempts, with 21 of his completions resulting in first downs.
On the other side of this matchup, I still don't know quite what to make of TCU. Their offense looked really, really good against SMU (over 8 yards per run & Duggan nearly perfect, completing 22/29 passes for 276 yards, 3 TDs, & 0 ints). TCU's defense looked good early and they jumped out to a 28-14 halftime lead. But then allowed SMU to gain 291 yards in the second half on 43 plays (almost 7 yards per snap). SMU isn't terrible, though. And TCU was in control for the entirety of that game, so it was an impressive win.
I think this game will let us know (1) whether OU's defense is below average and (2) whether TCU still has issues defensively. OU better show up here. It is not out of the question for them to lose 3 straight games to start Big 12 play, which would knock the pre-season favorite out of the conference race.
Texas - 9.5 v. WVU:
We all know what Texas did last week. Having watched them play 3 games this year (including multiple watches of the game against us). I'm actually pretty impressed with their team. Their defensive front is nasty. They have good edge rushers and rotate multiple 330+ pound interior guys that gave us fits all day. Their skill guys -- assuming Worthy is okay -- are some of the best in the country. And I like Card much more now than I did before the season. He really just made one bad decision on Saturday.
The outgoing transfers to WVU's defense the last couple years has finally caught up with them. WVU is allowing almost 3 points per drive (97th nationally) and over 6.15 yards per play (85th nationally). Their offense, however, has showed a lot of promise through the first 4 games. JT Daniels might be pretty dang good and, as a team, WVU is averaging 6 yards per carry.
I have bet Texas -9.5 here. This is a pretty dire spot for Sark. His team needs some momentum going into the OU game. I wouldn't be surprised to see UT's offense finally click and score 35-40+ points.
Other Games:
Mississippi State -3.5 v. Texas A&M:
A&M could've easily lost to Arkansas. They were on the bring of being down 7-21 until the Arkansas QB dove at the goalline, fumbled it and it was then returned for an A&M touchdown. There's no bigger swing in football than that. A&M also lost their best WR for the year.
Mississippi State's defense is for real. Like for real, for real. Especially defending the run, which is what A&M will need to lean on. I won't bet anything here but definitely interested in the match-up.
Houston -2.5 v. Tulane:
This game is only interesting because it pits two teams that Tech and K-State have played at home. Derek Parrish tearing his bicep probably impacted this line by a point or so, but not by much more than that. Thus, it appears Tulane has the same caliber of football team as UH this year. They would probably be a slight favorite over UH if the game was played at a neutral site.
Clemson -6.5 v. NC State:
Definitely rooting for NC State here. It's going to be really tough for them to win on the road, but if they do, they're in the mix for a playoff spot and a top 10 finish this year. I want our road loss to keep looking better and better.
Sideline Provisions "Banger" of the Week (0-1 on the year):
I think we got a bit of a bad break last week with A&M winning the game despite being out-gained by nearly 100 yards.
This week's pick is UT -9*** v. WVU. I see the line anywhere from -9 to -10. Definitely would want to at least grab -9.5.
For the reasons mentioned above, I think UT rolls Neal Brown's defense up here. WVU's defense could look what Tech did in the first half, but for the entirety of the game. While WVU's offense does scare me a little bit, this is definitely a "get right" spot for UT's defense after we put them into the dink-and-dunk meat grinder.
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*** Please bet responsibly. This bet probably has like a 53% chance of winning... so.... proceed with caution.
Iowa State -3 at Kansas:
I know Kansas is a darling right now and is 4-0, but it's still a shock to see Kansas be just a slight underdog to a quasi-legitimate Big 12 team.
Jalon Daniels has been almost unstoppable. Against 3 P5 teams (including UH), he has generated 987 yards on 119 passes or rush attempts, 13 TDs and just one lost fumble. That's over 8 yards per pass attempt or rush. I'm kind of wanting to see someone stop him just to prove that it can be done. Iowa State should be the best defense they have played thus far (and it should be mad after getting torched last week).
Hunter Dekkers really struggled against Baylor's defensive front (which appears extremely formidable). He threw two interceptions in the second half and was sacked 5 times. A loss here for Matt Campbell's squad and he is on a path to fighting it out with WVU for last place in the Big 12. Sure, it's early. But that's the path they are on if they leave Lawrence with a loss.
Baylor -2 v. Oklahoma State:
Baylor's offense is the biggest curve ball in the Big 12. I thought about giving that nod to Kansas, since they are so run heavy, including some option stuff, but Baylor's heavy personnel from under center (or pistol) gets the nod. Baylor averaged over 1.7 TEs on the field per snap against Iowa State, all of them 250 pound plus. That's going to distinguish what they do offensively from the rest of the Big 12 by quite a bit.
Last week against Iowa State was a really solid showing from Blake Shapen (240 yards, 3 TDs, 73% completion, 11 yard Average Depth of Target (so throwing over 2x as far downfield as what Donovan did against UT)). It was a good thing for Baylor because their power running game was not terribly effective against Iowa State's front.
I'm still not quite sure what Oklahoma State's got this year. They are averaging a whopping 7+ yards per offensive snap. But they haven't really played anyone yet, and the only P5 team they played apparently had a trojan horse divulging secrets in an effort to sabotage Herm Edwards.
With OU dropping a home game, Baylor is in really good shape if they can beat Oklahoma State at home. That was a big win for them in Ames. Teams that will be (or could have been) in the conference race will drop one there.
Oklahoma -6.5 @ TCU:
OU got off to a bad start against Kansas State (down 14-0 through 2 possessions each) and weren't able to take back the lead. However.... their offense still looks scary strong. After those first two possessions, OU scored 3.4 points per drive and averaged a whopping 8.8 yards per play in a very balanced attack. And that's against a K-State defense that looks to be fairly stout.
Marvin Mims might be the scariest WR to defend or game plan against in the conference. And Dillon Gabriel looks like a major hit out of the transfer portal (he threw for 329 yards, 4 TDs, 0 interceptions; to go with 66 yards rushing on 3 carries).
OU's offense is clearly the class of the Big 12. And I don't know that it's particularly close.
Their defense, however, showed some warts on Saturday. Allowed 4 rushing TDs on 44 Kansas State carries to the tune of 6.3 yards per rush. There was really only the one back-breaking long run by Adrian Martinez, so they were getting gashed pretty regularly on the ground (over 9 runs of 10+ yards -- we allowed just 4 on Saturday). OU's defense also allowed what has appeared to be a really pedestrian KSU passing attack finally get some traction. Adrian Martinez threw for 240 yards on just 34 attempts, with 21 of his completions resulting in first downs.
On the other side of this matchup, I still don't know quite what to make of TCU. Their offense looked really, really good against SMU (over 8 yards per run & Duggan nearly perfect, completing 22/29 passes for 276 yards, 3 TDs, & 0 ints). TCU's defense looked good early and they jumped out to a 28-14 halftime lead. But then allowed SMU to gain 291 yards in the second half on 43 plays (almost 7 yards per snap). SMU isn't terrible, though. And TCU was in control for the entirety of that game, so it was an impressive win.
I think this game will let us know (1) whether OU's defense is below average and (2) whether TCU still has issues defensively. OU better show up here. It is not out of the question for them to lose 3 straight games to start Big 12 play, which would knock the pre-season favorite out of the conference race.
Texas - 9.5 v. WVU:
We all know what Texas did last week. Having watched them play 3 games this year (including multiple watches of the game against us). I'm actually pretty impressed with their team. Their defensive front is nasty. They have good edge rushers and rotate multiple 330+ pound interior guys that gave us fits all day. Their skill guys -- assuming Worthy is okay -- are some of the best in the country. And I like Card much more now than I did before the season. He really just made one bad decision on Saturday.
The outgoing transfers to WVU's defense the last couple years has finally caught up with them. WVU is allowing almost 3 points per drive (97th nationally) and over 6.15 yards per play (85th nationally). Their offense, however, has showed a lot of promise through the first 4 games. JT Daniels might be pretty dang good and, as a team, WVU is averaging 6 yards per carry.
I have bet Texas -9.5 here. This is a pretty dire spot for Sark. His team needs some momentum going into the OU game. I wouldn't be surprised to see UT's offense finally click and score 35-40+ points.
Other Games:
Mississippi State -3.5 v. Texas A&M:
A&M could've easily lost to Arkansas. They were on the bring of being down 7-21 until the Arkansas QB dove at the goalline, fumbled it and it was then returned for an A&M touchdown. There's no bigger swing in football than that. A&M also lost their best WR for the year.
Mississippi State's defense is for real. Like for real, for real. Especially defending the run, which is what A&M will need to lean on. I won't bet anything here but definitely interested in the match-up.
Houston -2.5 v. Tulane:
This game is only interesting because it pits two teams that Tech and K-State have played at home. Derek Parrish tearing his bicep probably impacted this line by a point or so, but not by much more than that. Thus, it appears Tulane has the same caliber of football team as UH this year. They would probably be a slight favorite over UH if the game was played at a neutral site.
Clemson -6.5 v. NC State:
Definitely rooting for NC State here. It's going to be really tough for them to win on the road, but if they do, they're in the mix for a playoff spot and a top 10 finish this year. I want our road loss to keep looking better and better.
Sideline Provisions "Banger" of the Week (0-1 on the year):
I think we got a bit of a bad break last week with A&M winning the game despite being out-gained by nearly 100 yards.
This week's pick is UT -9*** v. WVU. I see the line anywhere from -9 to -10. Definitely would want to at least grab -9.5.
For the reasons mentioned above, I think UT rolls Neal Brown's defense up here. WVU's defense could look what Tech did in the first half, but for the entirety of the game. While WVU's offense does scare me a little bit, this is definitely a "get right" spot for UT's defense after we put them into the dink-and-dunk meat grinder.
www.sidelineprovisions.com
The Official apparel provider of RedRaiderSports.com‼️
Owned and operated by Red Raiders, Sideline Provisions offers one of a kind items you can’t find anywhere else in the world. They are the original creator of the Guns Up logo and are the only place to get Dirk West original pieces
*** Please bet responsibly. This bet probably has like a 53% chance of winning... so.... proceed with caution.
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