Sports fans and media are slow learners, falling into the same trap season after season, sport after sport. We are prisoners of the most recent, bound by the chains of linear thinking.
The San Antonio Spurs were left for dead in February. The punditocracy predicted that the Houston Rockets would barely scrape into the postseason. The Dallas Cowboys' defense was expected to be a tire fire last season. Impressive bowl performances the year before meant that Trevor Knight and Davis Webb were destined to be two of the Big 12's best quarterbacks last season. The Baylor football program was going to be awful forever.
You get the idea.
We always expect sports to be linear and predictable and we are constantly amazed when it is neither.
Look at TCU. Linear thinking at this time a year ago pegged TCU as a team headed for a bottom-half finish in the Big 12. Now, after a 12-1 season, linear thinking has the Horned Frogs set up for another run at a Big 12 title.
We get caught in the same trape over and over again.
Fortunes change faster, in both directions, in sports than most realize. This process seems to happen at an excruciatingly slow pace as you go through it -- almost like an inverse dog year -- but that is merely a matter of perception.
The inflection point can be something as simple as one decision, one hire or one player.
Look at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The two Sooner State programs entered the offseason on divergent paths, one riding a wave of positive momentum and the other looking to redefine part of its identity.
All of it can be traced back to Bedlam. Bob Stoops opted to accept a penalty and re-kick to the Pokes late in the fourth quarter with the Sooners nursing a seven point lead. Tyreek Hill tied the game on a 92-yard punt return, and the Cowboys won in overtime. The win secured bowl eligibility for Oklahoma State and, instead of ending the season on a six-game losing streak, the fighting Mike Gundies finished with back-to-back wins against Oklahoma and Washington. Stoops' program, meanwhile, limped into the postseason, got dumptrucked by Clemson and suffered through its second major coaching staff shake-up in three years.
Texas Tech went 4-8 last season thanks to an awful defense, a turnover-prone offense and a knack for committing penalties in droves. The team doesn't have a known quantity at quarterback or a No. 1 receiver. David Gibbs is taking over a defense that gave up a play of 10-plus yards on more than 20 percent of its defensive snaps last year.
There's not much hard data that would suggest that the Red Raiders are in for a quick turnaround.
But there was no hard data suggesting that TCU would go 12-1 last year. There was no evidence pointing to Baylor rising from chumps to champs in four year's time. No one expected a lightly-recruited quarterback from New Braunfels to shatter Big 12 and NCAA passing records.
The Red Raiders could absolutely go 12-1 this season. They could also go 3-9. They will probably fall somewhere in the middle of those two extremes, but the beauty of sports is that we have no idea. There's no sense in pretending otherwise.
IN MY HEAD
... New message boards are on the way and should be in place on RRS by tomorrow morning. Here's a handy list of help topics to look over in case you run into any issues.
... I don't think Scott Brooks is a great coach -- he's certainly no Brad Stevens! -- but how could you hold this year against the guy and fire him? Kevin Durant missed most of the season and the team's defense melted away once Serge Ibaka was lost for the season in mid-March.
... WILLIE!
... The Portland Trail Blazers had a sign in their locker room before Game 1 of their first-round series with the Memphis Grizzlies that said "We don't lose to Spanish players." Well, Barcelona-born Marc Gasol went for 15 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists in the Grizzlies' 100-86 win on Sunday. Oops.
... Please don't screw this up, Syfy Channel.
... NFL Draft is in 10 days.
This post was edited on 4/20 4:36 PM by A. Dickens
The San Antonio Spurs were left for dead in February. The punditocracy predicted that the Houston Rockets would barely scrape into the postseason. The Dallas Cowboys' defense was expected to be a tire fire last season. Impressive bowl performances the year before meant that Trevor Knight and Davis Webb were destined to be two of the Big 12's best quarterbacks last season. The Baylor football program was going to be awful forever.
You get the idea.
We always expect sports to be linear and predictable and we are constantly amazed when it is neither.
Look at TCU. Linear thinking at this time a year ago pegged TCU as a team headed for a bottom-half finish in the Big 12. Now, after a 12-1 season, linear thinking has the Horned Frogs set up for another run at a Big 12 title.
We get caught in the same trape over and over again.
Fortunes change faster, in both directions, in sports than most realize. This process seems to happen at an excruciatingly slow pace as you go through it -- almost like an inverse dog year -- but that is merely a matter of perception.
The inflection point can be something as simple as one decision, one hire or one player.
Look at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The two Sooner State programs entered the offseason on divergent paths, one riding a wave of positive momentum and the other looking to redefine part of its identity.
All of it can be traced back to Bedlam. Bob Stoops opted to accept a penalty and re-kick to the Pokes late in the fourth quarter with the Sooners nursing a seven point lead. Tyreek Hill tied the game on a 92-yard punt return, and the Cowboys won in overtime. The win secured bowl eligibility for Oklahoma State and, instead of ending the season on a six-game losing streak, the fighting Mike Gundies finished with back-to-back wins against Oklahoma and Washington. Stoops' program, meanwhile, limped into the postseason, got dumptrucked by Clemson and suffered through its second major coaching staff shake-up in three years.
Texas Tech went 4-8 last season thanks to an awful defense, a turnover-prone offense and a knack for committing penalties in droves. The team doesn't have a known quantity at quarterback or a No. 1 receiver. David Gibbs is taking over a defense that gave up a play of 10-plus yards on more than 20 percent of its defensive snaps last year.
There's not much hard data that would suggest that the Red Raiders are in for a quick turnaround.
But there was no hard data suggesting that TCU would go 12-1 last year. There was no evidence pointing to Baylor rising from chumps to champs in four year's time. No one expected a lightly-recruited quarterback from New Braunfels to shatter Big 12 and NCAA passing records.
The Red Raiders could absolutely go 12-1 this season. They could also go 3-9. They will probably fall somewhere in the middle of those two extremes, but the beauty of sports is that we have no idea. There's no sense in pretending otherwise.
IN MY HEAD
... New message boards are on the way and should be in place on RRS by tomorrow morning. Here's a handy list of help topics to look over in case you run into any issues.
... I don't think Scott Brooks is a great coach -- he's certainly no Brad Stevens! -- but how could you hold this year against the guy and fire him? Kevin Durant missed most of the season and the team's defense melted away once Serge Ibaka was lost for the season in mid-March.
... WILLIE!
... The Portland Trail Blazers had a sign in their locker room before Game 1 of their first-round series with the Memphis Grizzlies that said "We don't lose to Spanish players." Well, Barcelona-born Marc Gasol went for 15 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists in the Grizzlies' 100-86 win on Sunday. Oops.
... Please don't screw this up, Syfy Channel.
... NFL Draft is in 10 days.
This post was edited on 4/20 4:36 PM by A. Dickens
