ADVERTISEMENT

The Weirdness of that Game & Many Other Random Numbers

4O9to8O6Nback

"I retire from podcasting"- @T. Beadles
Gold Member
Dec 30, 2015
5,611
47,328
113
Chris Beard has lost a game that he lead by 10+ points in the second half three times. Last night, @ ISU in 2017 & UT in the 2017 Big 12 tourney.

Tech scored 1.23 points per possession, the 2nd most we've scored this year & the 2nd most allowed by WVU in their last 36 games (Gonzaga only scored 1.07 points/poss v. WVU earlier this year). Last night was the most points per possession that Tech's scored in a loss since an 87-81 defeat to WVU in 2014. It was also the most points/poss scored in a loss in Beard's career.

Tech turned the ball over on just 2.8% of its possessions. Since 2002, there only appears to be two games where we turned it over less than 7% & no games less than 5%. That was a once-every-30-years type game in terms of taking care of the basketball.

In 84 games against Big 12 teams under Beard, Tech has scored more than 1.24 points possession only 9 times. Tech won those 9 games by an average margin of 31 points.

Tech's eFG% last night was 52.7%. In his career, Beard is now 80-3 when his team shot 52.7% or better.

I need help finding the last time a Tech player scored 30 or more points in a losing effort.

Texas Tech is the first team over the last decade to only turn it over twice, score 85 points, and still lose.

Tech is 21st nationally in adjOffense on Kenpom, which would tie Tech's best season ever in the Kenpom era (2002). Tech trails only UT/BU for most points/poss in Big 12 play. Tech is top 30 nationally in free throw rate, offensive rebound % & turnover %.

Despite the top 20 offense, Tech is 200th in eFG%. Since 2002, only one team has had a top 20 Kenpom offense with the 200th or worse shooting numbers (i.e., eFG%). Although Tech is scoring the 3rd most points/poss in Big 12 games, Tech has the 8th worst eFG%. The last time a Big 12 team was in the top 3rd in points/poss & bottom 3rd in eFG% was the 2008 UT team that lost to Memphis in the Elite 8.

Tech allowed 1.24 points/possession against WVU last night. It's the 4th most allowed in Chris Beard's career. Prior to last night, Beard had only allowed a team to score over 1.2 points/poss 11 times. At Little-Rock he was 0-1 (R32 loss to Iowa State) and at Tech he is now 1-10 in those games. The lone win was the 2018 OT win against Rice. In those 12 games combined, Beard's opponents shot 49% on 250 3-pt attempts.

Tech's Big 12 opponents have shot 42% from the 3-pt line. Since 2002, there have only been two Big 12 teams to allow a higher percentage. One was during the shorter 3-pt line. The other was in the early 2000s, when the 3-pt line was even closer than it was before the 2020 change. Davide Moretti shot 39% from the extended 3-pt line and 40% in his career. The best team in college basketball last year (BYU) shot lower than 42%.


According to Synergy, this is catch-and-shoot FG attempts allowed per game (how many were "unguarded") & then eFG% on all catch-and-shoot attempts.

2017: 16.18 (5.5), 53.9%
2018: 13.24 (4.48), 53%
2019: 14.65 (6.39), 42.8%
2020: 12.19 (6.35), 45.8%
2021: 13.68 (7.43), 51.6%

The 3-pt line moved back in 2020, making our opponents' 51.6% eFG on CnS jumpers that much more ridiculous this year. Also note that the no-middle defense became something we did exclusively in 2018, which might explain the drop from 16.18 per game in 2017 to 13.24 per game in 2018. We do appear to be allowing more open jump shots than we ever have under Beard, although some of that might be from not playing as many non-con games..

This is Tech's 3 pt-shooting % differential in Big 12 games under Beard:

2017: -1.9%
2018: +.1%
2019: +2.7%
2020: +9.6%
2021 (through 8 games): -10.1%

Since Big 12 realignment in 2012, the worst 3-pt % differential for a Big 12 team was 2013 Tech at -8.8%. There have been 3 other teams worse than -7% since. Tech's on pace for an historically big discrepancy in terms of 3-pt shooting percentages during conference games. On the season, we've allowed opponents to shoot just 34% from 3, which is right at the D1 average (33.6%).

Tech is 22nd in the country in offensive "shot quality" (the expected value of every possession), despite having the lowest "rim and 3-rate" among teams in the top 30. Why do our possessions have such a high value despite us taking so many mid-range 2-pointers? Because we don't turn the ball over and get a shot up on nearly every possession (also... Mac McClung is good).

Only 4 BCS-level teams have a higher eFG% than Tech on shots attempted in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock (i.e., in transition). On Synergy, Tech is 11th among BCS-level teams in points per possession in transition.

Only 8 BCS-level teams have a lower eFG% than Tech on shots taken 11 or more seconds into the shot clock (i.e. non-transition). On Synergy, Tech is 39th among BCS-level teams in points per non-transition possession.

Tech's pick-and-roll ball handlers are scoring really efficiently (Mac / Kyler / Shannon). Only 13 BCS-level teams have been more productive.

As a team, Tech is in the bottom 25 percent nationally on catch-and-shoot jumpers with a 45% eFG%. Last year, we were in the top 15 percent nationally and finished with a 54.2% eFG%.
 
Last edited:
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT

Go Big.
Get Premium.

Join Rivals to access this premium section.

  • Say your piece in exclusive fan communities.
  • Unlock Premium news from the largest network of experts.
  • Dominate with stats, athlete data, Rivals250 rankings, and more.
Log in or subscribe today Go Back