Here are the top five storylines leading up to this weekend as Texas Tech (5-4) travels to Morgantown to play West Virginia (3-4) on Saturday at 11 a.m.
1. Holgorsen on the hot seat?
Most long-time Texas Tech fans still at least casually keep up with schools like West Virginia, ECU, Cal, and – don’t stone me – Washington State, and others, because of coaches who have spent some time on staff during the Air Raid era in Lubbock.
West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen was on the Texas Tech staff from 2000 to 2007, where he coached inside receivers for seven seasons and had at least a share of the offensive coordinator title for the final three seasons. He was on staff while No. 16 was setting records at quarterback.
Needless to say, the two offenses on the field Saturday have plenty of similarities and the men running them from the sidelines and from the press box are pretty familiar with each other. Most of the time that translates into an exciting football game.
With a current 17-17 record as a head coach, Saturday afternoon when the clock reads 00:00, Kliff Kinsgbury is either going to have a winning record as a head coach or a losing record as a head coach, and, well, the latter doesn’t sound very good at all for a program that is used to winning.
On an even more serious note, there’s a lot of media chatter than Dana Holgorsen is on the hot seat. The Mountaineers got off to an early 3-0 start this season and found themselves in the Top 25 before dropping four in a row. I believe I saw somewhere that this is the first time West Virginia has EVER had an 0-4 conference record in football. In major college football that doesn’t get an asterisk beside it that says those four teams have a combined 31-1 record and are all ranked in the Top 15. That says no pressure or anything, but win now, or else…
After this weekend, West Virginia will close out the season with road games against Kansas and Kansas State and home games against Texas and Iowa State. Based on what we’ve seen, the Mountaineers could win all four of those and Holgorsen could keep his job. Time will tell.
2. Hunt to become bowl eligible
Fans’ final expectations for this season have been as up-and-down as the Red Raiders play on the field this year. Before the season, some said four to six wins, then after the Arkansas game some were talking 10 wins and possibly Big 12 Champions, now most are praying for one more win and a bowl game, while some are still hopeful the Red Raiders will win out.
You can group Texas Tech’s opponents this season so far into two categories: really good teams and well, not very good teams. The Red Raiders losses come against four teams with a combined record of 31-1, while their wins come against five teams with a combined record of 16 – 24. Throw out the FCS opponent and Tech’s FBS wins come against four teams with a combined record of 10-22 (FCS - SHSU 6-2, UTEP 3-5, Arkansas 4-4, Iowa State 3-5, Kansas 0-8).
How can Texas Tech do against a solid, middle-of-the-road, a hair-above-average, or good-but-not-great team? The answer to that question over these next three games will define this season for the Red Raiders program.
If you had to draw a line in the sand and say if Texas Tech passes it, thing are going in the right direction and if not, the sky is falling, it would be to make a bowl game. Anything beyond that and the optimism will certainly snowball, some nice recruiting surprises might come and fans will look forward to 2016 with hope. Anything below that and things begin to get ugly and fans begin to, or continue - in some cases – to become extremely impatient and say some pretty mean things about their favorite football program and its leaders.
The 4-8 2014 Red Raiders missed a bowl game, much like the 5-7 2011 Red Raiders. For a program that won eight or more games for much of a decade, that’s not going to cut it for the fans. The Red Raiders haven’t missed a bowl game in consecutive seasons since the early 1990s.
3. Both teams share the same losses
Both Texas Tech and West Virginia have four losses. Those four losses are Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State, all of which are ranked between No. 2 and No. 14 and have a combined record of 31-1.
Oklahoma and Baylor won convincingly against both Texas Tech and West Virginia. West Virginia gave Oklahoma State a closer game than Texas Tech did and likewise, Texas Tech gave TCU a much closer game than West Virginia did.
Without getting into the numbers and dissecting it yet, based on seeing those teams and their personnel, that says that Texas Tech has the better offense of the two teams, while West Virginia has the better defense of the two teams.
4. The numbers confirm
Texas Tech’s offense ranks second nationally with 413.4 passing yards per game. The Red Raiders have completed 284 of 446 attempts for 3,721 yards and 28 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions.
West Virginia’s passing defense ranks 96th nationally allowing 255.4 passing yards per game.
West Virginia’s offense ranks No. 42 nationally with 254.1 passing yards per game. The Mountaineers have completed 135 of 242 attemps for 1,779 yards, 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 302 yards passing per game, which ranks even closer to the bottom at No. 121 nationally.
West Virginia’s rush offense ranks No. 26 nationally with 1,461 yards and 11 touchdowns on 339 carries, good for 4.31 yards per rush and 208.7 yards per game.
Texas Tech’s rush defense is actually worse than its pass defense, ranking No. 124 nationally, giving up 2,436 yards and 29 touchdowns on 412 carries, or 5.91 yards per carry and 270.7 yards per game.
Texas Tech’s rushing offense ranks 40th nationally with 1,713 yards and 24 touchdowns on 305 carries, good for 190.2 yards per game and 5.61 yards per carry. Only 10 teams with more rushing yards than Tech have higher yards per carry averages.
West Virginia has the nation’s No. 81 rushing defense, giving up 1,232 yards and seven touchdowns on 274 carries or 176 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.
At one point early this season, Texas Tech was in the top 10 in turnover margin, they have since fallen to 59th with plus-two turnovers on the season, while West Virginia’s plus-three is good for 37th nationally.
So yeah, statistically, Texas Tech’s offense is a good ways ahead of West Virginia, while the Mountaineers defense is a little ways ahead of the Red Raiders.
5. Can the Red Raiders pull out the win?
None of the numbers I’ve researched, the stats, the streaks, the off-season speculation, the possible bowl games, media headlines or recruiting implications matter as much as Point No. 5 – Can the Red Raiders win?
If the Red Raiders win, they are going bowling and looking at a very winnable home game against a Kansas State team that’s suffered more heart-breaking losses this season than Texas Tech – by quantity at least, not necessarily by quality – for a hypothetical seventh win and a guaranteed winning record after all is said and done.
A loss and next weekend looks a lot tougher and it could take some prayer, some luck and a deep-down dogfight to get a sixth win.
Can the Red Raiders go into Morgantown and get their first win against a Big 12 team not named Kansas or Iowa State in two years and become bowl eligible?
1. Holgorsen on the hot seat?
Most long-time Texas Tech fans still at least casually keep up with schools like West Virginia, ECU, Cal, and – don’t stone me – Washington State, and others, because of coaches who have spent some time on staff during the Air Raid era in Lubbock.
West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen was on the Texas Tech staff from 2000 to 2007, where he coached inside receivers for seven seasons and had at least a share of the offensive coordinator title for the final three seasons. He was on staff while No. 16 was setting records at quarterback.
Needless to say, the two offenses on the field Saturday have plenty of similarities and the men running them from the sidelines and from the press box are pretty familiar with each other. Most of the time that translates into an exciting football game.
With a current 17-17 record as a head coach, Saturday afternoon when the clock reads 00:00, Kliff Kinsgbury is either going to have a winning record as a head coach or a losing record as a head coach, and, well, the latter doesn’t sound very good at all for a program that is used to winning.
On an even more serious note, there’s a lot of media chatter than Dana Holgorsen is on the hot seat. The Mountaineers got off to an early 3-0 start this season and found themselves in the Top 25 before dropping four in a row. I believe I saw somewhere that this is the first time West Virginia has EVER had an 0-4 conference record in football. In major college football that doesn’t get an asterisk beside it that says those four teams have a combined 31-1 record and are all ranked in the Top 15. That says no pressure or anything, but win now, or else…
After this weekend, West Virginia will close out the season with road games against Kansas and Kansas State and home games against Texas and Iowa State. Based on what we’ve seen, the Mountaineers could win all four of those and Holgorsen could keep his job. Time will tell.
2. Hunt to become bowl eligible
Fans’ final expectations for this season have been as up-and-down as the Red Raiders play on the field this year. Before the season, some said four to six wins, then after the Arkansas game some were talking 10 wins and possibly Big 12 Champions, now most are praying for one more win and a bowl game, while some are still hopeful the Red Raiders will win out.
You can group Texas Tech’s opponents this season so far into two categories: really good teams and well, not very good teams. The Red Raiders losses come against four teams with a combined record of 31-1, while their wins come against five teams with a combined record of 16 – 24. Throw out the FCS opponent and Tech’s FBS wins come against four teams with a combined record of 10-22 (FCS - SHSU 6-2, UTEP 3-5, Arkansas 4-4, Iowa State 3-5, Kansas 0-8).
How can Texas Tech do against a solid, middle-of-the-road, a hair-above-average, or good-but-not-great team? The answer to that question over these next three games will define this season for the Red Raiders program.
If you had to draw a line in the sand and say if Texas Tech passes it, thing are going in the right direction and if not, the sky is falling, it would be to make a bowl game. Anything beyond that and the optimism will certainly snowball, some nice recruiting surprises might come and fans will look forward to 2016 with hope. Anything below that and things begin to get ugly and fans begin to, or continue - in some cases – to become extremely impatient and say some pretty mean things about their favorite football program and its leaders.
The 4-8 2014 Red Raiders missed a bowl game, much like the 5-7 2011 Red Raiders. For a program that won eight or more games for much of a decade, that’s not going to cut it for the fans. The Red Raiders haven’t missed a bowl game in consecutive seasons since the early 1990s.
3. Both teams share the same losses
Both Texas Tech and West Virginia have four losses. Those four losses are Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State, all of which are ranked between No. 2 and No. 14 and have a combined record of 31-1.
Oklahoma and Baylor won convincingly against both Texas Tech and West Virginia. West Virginia gave Oklahoma State a closer game than Texas Tech did and likewise, Texas Tech gave TCU a much closer game than West Virginia did.
Without getting into the numbers and dissecting it yet, based on seeing those teams and their personnel, that says that Texas Tech has the better offense of the two teams, while West Virginia has the better defense of the two teams.
4. The numbers confirm
Texas Tech’s offense ranks second nationally with 413.4 passing yards per game. The Red Raiders have completed 284 of 446 attempts for 3,721 yards and 28 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions.
West Virginia’s passing defense ranks 96th nationally allowing 255.4 passing yards per game.
West Virginia’s offense ranks No. 42 nationally with 254.1 passing yards per game. The Mountaineers have completed 135 of 242 attemps for 1,779 yards, 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 302 yards passing per game, which ranks even closer to the bottom at No. 121 nationally.
West Virginia’s rush offense ranks No. 26 nationally with 1,461 yards and 11 touchdowns on 339 carries, good for 4.31 yards per rush and 208.7 yards per game.
Texas Tech’s rush defense is actually worse than its pass defense, ranking No. 124 nationally, giving up 2,436 yards and 29 touchdowns on 412 carries, or 5.91 yards per carry and 270.7 yards per game.
Texas Tech’s rushing offense ranks 40th nationally with 1,713 yards and 24 touchdowns on 305 carries, good for 190.2 yards per game and 5.61 yards per carry. Only 10 teams with more rushing yards than Tech have higher yards per carry averages.
West Virginia has the nation’s No. 81 rushing defense, giving up 1,232 yards and seven touchdowns on 274 carries or 176 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.
At one point early this season, Texas Tech was in the top 10 in turnover margin, they have since fallen to 59th with plus-two turnovers on the season, while West Virginia’s plus-three is good for 37th nationally.
So yeah, statistically, Texas Tech’s offense is a good ways ahead of West Virginia, while the Mountaineers defense is a little ways ahead of the Red Raiders.
5. Can the Red Raiders pull out the win?
None of the numbers I’ve researched, the stats, the streaks, the off-season speculation, the possible bowl games, media headlines or recruiting implications matter as much as Point No. 5 – Can the Red Raiders win?
If the Red Raiders win, they are going bowling and looking at a very winnable home game against a Kansas State team that’s suffered more heart-breaking losses this season than Texas Tech – by quantity at least, not necessarily by quality – for a hypothetical seventh win and a guaranteed winning record after all is said and done.
A loss and next weekend looks a lot tougher and it could take some prayer, some luck and a deep-down dogfight to get a sixth win.
Can the Red Raiders go into Morgantown and get their first win against a Big 12 team not named Kansas or Iowa State in two years and become bowl eligible?
