As most of you that follow Tech T&F on this board know, I try to post my predictions just prior to the conference meet. I thought this year, with all the craziness around COVID that I would wait until the heat sheets came out to try and get a handle on the actual entries and when they finally came out this afternoon, the missing entries is staggering. The Tech men will be without Courtney Lindsey, the best sprinter in the Big 12, who went down with a hamstring tweak 3 weeks ago, but it was said that it was not a big deal. It must be a big deal -- he isn't competing. Then, I read that both Iowa State and OK State has decided to hold out its top distance runners to let them rest for the national XC meet in a few weeks, since COVID forced the championship season for XC to be moved to this winter. I have looked at some events where 5 of the top 10 athletes in some events are not even entered. My head is hurting from trying to figure everything out. I will make a stab at it to come up with a best guess for the championships.
MEN -- this should be a dogfight for first between Tech and UT, both scoring in the 140-150 range. But, without Courtney Lindsey, I don't know that the Red Raiders can stay with the Horns. K-State should end up in a solid 3rd with around 100-110 points. OU fits in to the fourth slot with 70-75. TCU, Baylor, and Iowa State should be scoring around 50-60, but IA State was getting a lot of points in the distances. Even their 2nd stringers will pick up some points in the distance races but probably not nearly enough to stay in the hunt for 5th place. OK State and Kansas should bring up the rear with 35-40 points, but I suspect OK State will drop to the bottom without their top distance runners.
How can Tech close the gap on the Horns? Watch the heptathlon -- it will be a microcosm of how this meet will turn out. The Horns have 3 multi-athletes in the top 4 and should score in excess of 20 points in the event. However, Tech has three talented multi-athletes as well -- Gary Haasbroek, Fynn Zenker, and Cole Whatley -- but, none of the three have completed a heptathlon this season (Gary is a 2-time All-American in the event, Fynn is the German Jr national champ in the decathlon, and Cole placed 5th in this event at the conference meet 2 years ago. If Tech can break up in the UT stronghold in the heptathlon, that is the way that Tech can make a run at the title..
WOMEN -- on paper, UT are the prohibitive favorites. But, at least 2 of their top sprinters are not entered in the meet (they were literally expecting half of their projected 150-160 points in the 60, 200, 400 and 4x4 relay). K-State has the best chance of heading them off, capable of scoring 110-120 points (and possibly more). Tech and Baylor should be fighting it out for 3rd scoring in the 90-100 range. Tech still has a weakness in the distances and may not score a point in any race from the 800 up (800, 1000, mile, 3K, and 5K). Kansas, OK State and OU are in that 50-60 point range. Iowa State could score in the 30-35 range, but since many of those points are in distance races, they may fall into a race with WV and TCU to see who can end up in last place. There is a real chance that TCU may not score a point, but if things fell just right for them, they could sneak up to the 5-10 point level.
If I am totally wrong on these predictions, it will teach me to not ever make predictions in a pandemic again.
MEN -- this should be a dogfight for first between Tech and UT, both scoring in the 140-150 range. But, without Courtney Lindsey, I don't know that the Red Raiders can stay with the Horns. K-State should end up in a solid 3rd with around 100-110 points. OU fits in to the fourth slot with 70-75. TCU, Baylor, and Iowa State should be scoring around 50-60, but IA State was getting a lot of points in the distances. Even their 2nd stringers will pick up some points in the distance races but probably not nearly enough to stay in the hunt for 5th place. OK State and Kansas should bring up the rear with 35-40 points, but I suspect OK State will drop to the bottom without their top distance runners.
How can Tech close the gap on the Horns? Watch the heptathlon -- it will be a microcosm of how this meet will turn out. The Horns have 3 multi-athletes in the top 4 and should score in excess of 20 points in the event. However, Tech has three talented multi-athletes as well -- Gary Haasbroek, Fynn Zenker, and Cole Whatley -- but, none of the three have completed a heptathlon this season (Gary is a 2-time All-American in the event, Fynn is the German Jr national champ in the decathlon, and Cole placed 5th in this event at the conference meet 2 years ago. If Tech can break up in the UT stronghold in the heptathlon, that is the way that Tech can make a run at the title..
WOMEN -- on paper, UT are the prohibitive favorites. But, at least 2 of their top sprinters are not entered in the meet (they were literally expecting half of their projected 150-160 points in the 60, 200, 400 and 4x4 relay). K-State has the best chance of heading them off, capable of scoring 110-120 points (and possibly more). Tech and Baylor should be fighting it out for 3rd scoring in the 90-100 range. Tech still has a weakness in the distances and may not score a point in any race from the 800 up (800, 1000, mile, 3K, and 5K). Kansas, OK State and OU are in that 50-60 point range. Iowa State could score in the 30-35 range, but since many of those points are in distance races, they may fall into a race with WV and TCU to see who can end up in last place. There is a real chance that TCU may not score a point, but if things fell just right for them, they could sneak up to the 5-10 point level.
If I am totally wrong on these predictions, it will teach me to not ever make predictions in a pandemic again.
