Myth 1: Outside of Wallerstadt on a three-day opiod bender, David Gibbs is the worst defensive mind to wear a headset at the Jones.
Before attempting to verify these myths, let's set the standard for how CFB defenses & offenses are measured in the modern era: points given up (or scored) per drive & % of (your or opponents') possessions that end with a TD. That's it. No one cares how many yards you gain or give up.
The best Tech defenses (from 2007 through 2018) in terms of points given up per drive (PPD) are (1) the 2009 team at 1.59 PPD; (2a) the 2007 team at 2.06 PPD; and (2b) the 2013 team at 2.10 PPD. That's Tier 1.
Tier 2: (1) 2010 team at 2.32 PPD; (2a) 2008 team at 2.50 PPD; (2b) 2017 team at 2.51 PPD; and (2c) 2018 team at 2.57 PPD.
Tier 3 is lonely with the 2012 team at 2.79 PPD.
All other years (2011, 2014, 2015, and 2016) are above 3.0 PPD, with the best being the 2014 team at 3.01 PPD and the worst being the 2016 team at 3.37 PPD.
What about % of opponents' possessions that end in a TD....
Tier 1: 2009 team at 18.4%.
Tier 2: (1) 2007 team at 25.8%, and (2) 2013 team at 26.3%.
Tier 3: (1a) 2008 team at 31.2%; (1b) 2017 team at 31.8%; (1c) 2018 team at 32%; (2) 2012 team at 34.1%; and (3) 2014 team at 38.1%.
Tier God Awful: (1) 2015 Team at 41.2%; (2) 2011 team at 42.5%; and (3F-) 2016 team at 43.8%.
Clearly, the 2009 defense was in a class of its own. After that, 2a & 2b appear to be the 2007 defense and the 2013 defense.
The other nine defenses that we've fielded in the last twelve years have been.. bad, to say the least. But only a few have been truly awful. Those are the 2014-2016 teams & the 2011 team.
As shown above, the 2017 & 2018 defenses are nearly indistinguishable from the 2008 defense. Those defenses are also measurably better than the 2012 defense, which was considered pretty good by Tech standards.
Gibbs' first year came on the heels of the second worst defense (2014) that Tech had fielded since 2007. And the personnel that he inherited (2015) would go on to become one of the worst defenses in the history of modern football. Not to be outdone, year 2 under Gibbs (2016) would make even the 2014 defense look like it had a pulse.
Then something changed in 2017-2018. We got better. Sure, there were still some awful performances from the 2017-2018 seasons; it happens to a lot of teams nowadays, even some good defenses. But our last two defenses have not been THAT bad. From 2007-2018, Tech won 9 games when only scoring 29 or less points. A third of those occurred in the 2017-2018 seasons (and 4 out of 9 of those wins occurred under Gibbs).
Myth 2: Kliff is the most brilliant offensive mind ever, even when he didn't have the most gifted QB walking the planet.
Considering the same metrics as above, the Tier 1 offenses since 2007 are:
(1) 2008: scored TDs on 50% of possessions & averaged 3.64 PPD.
(2) 2016: TDs on 41.6% of possessions & averaged 3.12 PPD.
(3) 2015: TDs on 40.3% of possessions & averaged 3.10 PPD.
This is not intended to take anything away from what Kliff's contributed to the 2015-2016 seasons, but Pat, as we all know, was a cheat code. Luckily, we have four other Kliff seasons to compare to three Neal Brown years and three Mike Leach years, when we didn't have the best player on the field under center every game.
All three of Neal's years and the 07 & 09 Leach years scored a TD on 30% or more of their possessions. Kliff never did without Pat (2013-2014 & 2017-2018), but did come pretty close (27.4%, 29.6%, 29.9%, and 29.9%).
Leach's 07 & 09 years scored well above 2.5 points per drive (3.07 & 2.7). Neal's offense in 2012 was damn salty (2.88 PPD & 36.9% TD rate). Neal's worst year (2010) is the only season that was arguably equal to or worse than Kliff's best non-Pat year (2018).
Only four times in the last 12 years did Tech finish worse than 40th in the county in points scored per drive. Three of those seasons under Kliff. Kliff's best non-Pat finish in this category was 2018, when we averaged 2.45 PPD, which was good for 36th in the country. Neal's 2010 team and all four of Kliff's non-Pat teams are the only Tech teams to finish worse than 25th in the country in this category.
My Takeaways:
Is Gibbs the best defensive mind to step foot on Tech's campus since Bill Parcells? Hardly... Did we get what we paid for after hiring Gibbs with arguably the worst defensive situation among all P5 schools? I think so.
Kliff's 2013, 2014 & 2017 are easily the worst offenses Tech's fielded in the last 12 years. After that, it's a toss up between Neal Brown's 2010 team and Kliff's 2018 team. Did we get what we paid for out of Kliff in terms of play calling when he didn't have Pat? I'm not so sure....
Hopefully, a couple of years from now, Patterson's defense puts up numbers that makes Gibbs' 2017 & 2018 defenses look mediocre or below average by Tech's pitiful standards. That seems possible, but maybe not likely.
I feel much more confident that Yost's offenses will blow Kliff's non-Pat years out of the water.
Before attempting to verify these myths, let's set the standard for how CFB defenses & offenses are measured in the modern era: points given up (or scored) per drive & % of (your or opponents') possessions that end with a TD. That's it. No one cares how many yards you gain or give up.
The best Tech defenses (from 2007 through 2018) in terms of points given up per drive (PPD) are (1) the 2009 team at 1.59 PPD; (2a) the 2007 team at 2.06 PPD; and (2b) the 2013 team at 2.10 PPD. That's Tier 1.
Tier 2: (1) 2010 team at 2.32 PPD; (2a) 2008 team at 2.50 PPD; (2b) 2017 team at 2.51 PPD; and (2c) 2018 team at 2.57 PPD.
Tier 3 is lonely with the 2012 team at 2.79 PPD.
All other years (2011, 2014, 2015, and 2016) are above 3.0 PPD, with the best being the 2014 team at 3.01 PPD and the worst being the 2016 team at 3.37 PPD.
What about % of opponents' possessions that end in a TD....
Tier 1: 2009 team at 18.4%.
Tier 2: (1) 2007 team at 25.8%, and (2) 2013 team at 26.3%.
Tier 3: (1a) 2008 team at 31.2%; (1b) 2017 team at 31.8%; (1c) 2018 team at 32%; (2) 2012 team at 34.1%; and (3) 2014 team at 38.1%.
Tier God Awful: (1) 2015 Team at 41.2%; (2) 2011 team at 42.5%; and (3F-) 2016 team at 43.8%.
Clearly, the 2009 defense was in a class of its own. After that, 2a & 2b appear to be the 2007 defense and the 2013 defense.
The other nine defenses that we've fielded in the last twelve years have been.. bad, to say the least. But only a few have been truly awful. Those are the 2014-2016 teams & the 2011 team.
As shown above, the 2017 & 2018 defenses are nearly indistinguishable from the 2008 defense. Those defenses are also measurably better than the 2012 defense, which was considered pretty good by Tech standards.
Gibbs' first year came on the heels of the second worst defense (2014) that Tech had fielded since 2007. And the personnel that he inherited (2015) would go on to become one of the worst defenses in the history of modern football. Not to be outdone, year 2 under Gibbs (2016) would make even the 2014 defense look like it had a pulse.
Then something changed in 2017-2018. We got better. Sure, there were still some awful performances from the 2017-2018 seasons; it happens to a lot of teams nowadays, even some good defenses. But our last two defenses have not been THAT bad. From 2007-2018, Tech won 9 games when only scoring 29 or less points. A third of those occurred in the 2017-2018 seasons (and 4 out of 9 of those wins occurred under Gibbs).
Myth 2: Kliff is the most brilliant offensive mind ever, even when he didn't have the most gifted QB walking the planet.
Considering the same metrics as above, the Tier 1 offenses since 2007 are:
(1) 2008: scored TDs on 50% of possessions & averaged 3.64 PPD.
(2) 2016: TDs on 41.6% of possessions & averaged 3.12 PPD.
(3) 2015: TDs on 40.3% of possessions & averaged 3.10 PPD.
This is not intended to take anything away from what Kliff's contributed to the 2015-2016 seasons, but Pat, as we all know, was a cheat code. Luckily, we have four other Kliff seasons to compare to three Neal Brown years and three Mike Leach years, when we didn't have the best player on the field under center every game.
All three of Neal's years and the 07 & 09 Leach years scored a TD on 30% or more of their possessions. Kliff never did without Pat (2013-2014 & 2017-2018), but did come pretty close (27.4%, 29.6%, 29.9%, and 29.9%).
Leach's 07 & 09 years scored well above 2.5 points per drive (3.07 & 2.7). Neal's offense in 2012 was damn salty (2.88 PPD & 36.9% TD rate). Neal's worst year (2010) is the only season that was arguably equal to or worse than Kliff's best non-Pat year (2018).
Only four times in the last 12 years did Tech finish worse than 40th in the county in points scored per drive. Three of those seasons under Kliff. Kliff's best non-Pat finish in this category was 2018, when we averaged 2.45 PPD, which was good for 36th in the country. Neal's 2010 team and all four of Kliff's non-Pat teams are the only Tech teams to finish worse than 25th in the country in this category.
My Takeaways:
Is Gibbs the best defensive mind to step foot on Tech's campus since Bill Parcells? Hardly... Did we get what we paid for after hiring Gibbs with arguably the worst defensive situation among all P5 schools? I think so.
Kliff's 2013, 2014 & 2017 are easily the worst offenses Tech's fielded in the last 12 years. After that, it's a toss up between Neal Brown's 2010 team and Kliff's 2018 team. Did we get what we paid for out of Kliff in terms of play calling when he didn't have Pat? I'm not so sure....
Hopefully, a couple of years from now, Patterson's defense puts up numbers that makes Gibbs' 2017 & 2018 defenses look mediocre or below average by Tech's pitiful standards. That seems possible, but maybe not likely.
I feel much more confident that Yost's offenses will blow Kliff's non-Pat years out of the water.
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