14,650 tracked bets.
60% of the money is backing Tech
78% of the money on the under.
The line has been hovering around Michigan -1.5 to -2 all week. The total opened at 126 and has been bet down to 124. This is almost a spot to bet an alternate line under of like 115 at really good odds. I think if we played them 1000 times, about 300 of them would end something like 58 to 54.
The more I think about what pace the game is likely to be played at, the more I think it's going to be crazy low scoring. Both teams rely on a half court offense that is most efficient when its initiated with a lot of time still on the shot clock.
If I was Beard/Adams, I'd use that token full-court defense look with Mooney and Moretti at the top much more than we normally do. We don't need to gamble for steals out of it. Just force Michigan to use 8-15 seconds each possession to bring the ball up and initiate its half-court sets. I also think we'll employ some seldom-used trapping variants out of that token full-court look in key moments of the game.
Unlike the total for the Buffalo game, I don't think 124 is that bad of a number. Obviously, the 126 open was but I couldn't get anything down on it.
Gun to my head... Tech 61 - Michigan 58 & either Mooney or B Fran (or both) being the heroes of the game.
Player Props:
Under on Jarrett Culver points at 19.5. The guy that will guard him has some freak Zhaire athleticism to him. I don't believe that Culver is going to be shut down by him, but I do think it will be tough to generate 17-20 shots for Culver like we have been. Against K-state, Culver shot it 7 and 16 times. In a 60-65 possession game, I'm thinking he only takes about 12.
Matt Mooney over 10.5 points and/or Mooney pts+rebounds+assists over 18. I suspect that Mooney is going to find himself with the ball and needing to create in late-clock scenarios quite a bit. Mooney would probably be the first one to tell you that he isn't happy with his shooting numbers this year. But he's still made over 200 threes. For Tech, I think only Voskuil, Jay Jackson, John Roberson, Bonewitz, Carr, and Koy Smith can say that.
Over on Jon Teske pts + rebounds at 17.5. Michigan does not have a back up at the 5. They will play small ball with that 6'7 Livers at the 5, but that guy is also their primary backup at the 3 and 4. Additionally, Teske will get some opportunities for trash buckets and dump offs when Tariq leaves him to contest and block shots at the rim. Teske has played 32ish minutes in most of their tough games. Lastly, the way we ice ball screens, it dares the big-guy screener to pop out to the three point line and take a contested three. I think Teske will be more than willing to take about 3-4 of those shots. An alarming potential downside with this one: Unlike Beard, Beilein is a stickler for taking guys out in the first half if they get two fouls, and I imagine getting Teske in foul trouble will be a focus for Tech.
60% of the money is backing Tech
78% of the money on the under.
The line has been hovering around Michigan -1.5 to -2 all week. The total opened at 126 and has been bet down to 124. This is almost a spot to bet an alternate line under of like 115 at really good odds. I think if we played them 1000 times, about 300 of them would end something like 58 to 54.
The more I think about what pace the game is likely to be played at, the more I think it's going to be crazy low scoring. Both teams rely on a half court offense that is most efficient when its initiated with a lot of time still on the shot clock.
If I was Beard/Adams, I'd use that token full-court defense look with Mooney and Moretti at the top much more than we normally do. We don't need to gamble for steals out of it. Just force Michigan to use 8-15 seconds each possession to bring the ball up and initiate its half-court sets. I also think we'll employ some seldom-used trapping variants out of that token full-court look in key moments of the game.
Unlike the total for the Buffalo game, I don't think 124 is that bad of a number. Obviously, the 126 open was but I couldn't get anything down on it.
Gun to my head... Tech 61 - Michigan 58 & either Mooney or B Fran (or both) being the heroes of the game.
Player Props:
Under on Jarrett Culver points at 19.5. The guy that will guard him has some freak Zhaire athleticism to him. I don't believe that Culver is going to be shut down by him, but I do think it will be tough to generate 17-20 shots for Culver like we have been. Against K-state, Culver shot it 7 and 16 times. In a 60-65 possession game, I'm thinking he only takes about 12.
Matt Mooney over 10.5 points and/or Mooney pts+rebounds+assists over 18. I suspect that Mooney is going to find himself with the ball and needing to create in late-clock scenarios quite a bit. Mooney would probably be the first one to tell you that he isn't happy with his shooting numbers this year. But he's still made over 200 threes. For Tech, I think only Voskuil, Jay Jackson, John Roberson, Bonewitz, Carr, and Koy Smith can say that.
Over on Jon Teske pts + rebounds at 17.5. Michigan does not have a back up at the 5. They will play small ball with that 6'7 Livers at the 5, but that guy is also their primary backup at the 3 and 4. Additionally, Teske will get some opportunities for trash buckets and dump offs when Tariq leaves him to contest and block shots at the rim. Teske has played 32ish minutes in most of their tough games. Lastly, the way we ice ball screens, it dares the big-guy screener to pop out to the three point line and take a contested three. I think Teske will be more than willing to take about 3-4 of those shots. An alarming potential downside with this one: Unlike Beard, Beilein is a stickler for taking guys out in the first half if they get two fouls, and I imagine getting Teske in foul trouble will be a focus for Tech.
