From the Athletic today - based on KenPom metrics:
Welcome to March.
This men’s college basketball season has featured record-breaking offensive efficiency — teams are scoring at an all-time rate — and rare depth at the top. If the metrics have their way, this could be one of the best (and most entertaining) NCAA Tournaments ever. That’s my hope. Everyone loves upsets, but my favorite NCAA Tournaments are when elite teams advance to the second and third weekends and we get high-level games because of it.
Now here’s the data that suggests that’s about to happen: There are five teams at plus-30 in Ken Pomeroy’s net ratings (which depict a team’s adjusted offensive efficiency minus its adjusted defensive efficiency) and 11 at plus-26. Both totals are records for the first Monday of March.
Since 2000, these are the seasons that are the closest comparisons in each category on the first Monday of March. The third column shows where that season’s eventual champ ranked on KenPom at that moment.
A common thread through all of those years? The eventual champ was a No. 1 seed.
If we’re to believe that data set, the eventual champ is going to come out of the current KenPom top eight and will need to be a No. 1 seed. Current qualifiers with a realistic shot at a No. 1 seed in that top eight: Duke, Auburn, Houston, Florida, Tennessee and Alabama. (Texas Tech, at No. 7 on KenPom, would be a dark horse for a top seed if the Red Raiders were to win out.)
The author ranked us #9, up from having us as #13 last week.
Welcome to March.
This men’s college basketball season has featured record-breaking offensive efficiency — teams are scoring at an all-time rate — and rare depth at the top. If the metrics have their way, this could be one of the best (and most entertaining) NCAA Tournaments ever. That’s my hope. Everyone loves upsets, but my favorite NCAA Tournaments are when elite teams advance to the second and third weekends and we get high-level games because of it.
Now here’s the data that suggests that’s about to happen: There are five teams at plus-30 in Ken Pomeroy’s net ratings (which depict a team’s adjusted offensive efficiency minus its adjusted defensive efficiency) and 11 at plus-26. Both totals are records for the first Monday of March.
Since 2000, these are the seasons that are the closest comparisons in each category on the first Monday of March. The third column shows where that season’s eventual champ ranked on KenPom at that moment.
| 2000 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 2001 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 2007 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 2015 | 4 | 8 | 8 |
| 2017 | 2 | 10 | 4 |
| 2019 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| 2021 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
If we’re to believe that data set, the eventual champ is going to come out of the current KenPom top eight and will need to be a No. 1 seed. Current qualifiers with a realistic shot at a No. 1 seed in that top eight: Duke, Auburn, Houston, Florida, Tennessee and Alabama. (Texas Tech, at No. 7 on KenPom, would be a dark horse for a top seed if the Red Raiders were to win out.)
The author ranked us #9, up from having us as #13 last week.
