This feels like a really good time to talk about Tech Hoops. We're a week out from College Basketball officially starting, plus Tech football just got dismantled by an in-state conference opponent.
Kenpom predicts a 20-9 record for Tech. 10-8 in the conference. Tech is rated as the 17th best team in the country. Essentially tied with TCU, but well behind Texas, Kansas, and Baylor.
3-man Weave has Tech as the 18th best team in the country. That was also pre-Aimaq injury, and they were really high on him.
Circa has Tech with the 18th shortest odds to win the national title. It comes out to like a 2% chance.
I think it's fair to say that we have top 20 team. And that's exciting.
De'vion Harmon
We're going to love this guy. A pace and tone-setter PG. Not the tallest, but very physical for his position. Should lead the team in minutes played, time spent possessing the ball, time spent defending the ball, and assists. So, I think it's fair to call him the most important player on the team, especially when you consider the youth and inexperience behind him. True FR point guards have not fared well historically in the rugged Big 12, so we need Harmon to stay healthy. Many will probably respond in this post that Pop Isaacs will possess the ball more than Harmon. I'm sure he will help out, but I think this team goes as Harmon goes.
Harmon was a bit of an outlier for FR Big 12 point guards in his 2020 season at OU. He was solid. Very solid. One thing he did well was take care of the basketball. Also got to the free throw line at a solid clip (he's a physical guy). He's really effective in transition, pushing the ball to find shooters and finishing tough shots in transition.
I think it's fair to call Harmon's season at Oregon disappointing. He wasn't as efficient. A change of scenery back to the Big 12, and getting closer to home should do him well.
One thing he has been elite at throughout his career -- and this is something that probably caught the eye of Mark Adams -- is how well he can defend the ball without fouling. He'll be one of the best point-of-attack defenders in the country in that regard, and it's even more impressive when you consider how often he produces steals. And they are generally open-floor, point-producing steals.
As I already mentioned, I think a lot of our season will depend on Harmon because of how much I anticipate he will possess the basketball. If we are indeed a better shot-making team, then we will depend on a guy (Harmon or Isaacs) to create some of those looks for shooters.
There were 59 "high-usage" guys in the Pac-12 last year. This is how Harmon ranked
Points per possession: 39th
Shooting fouls drawn: 37th
Turnover percentage: 14th (that's really good for a PG -- almost everyone ahead of him are bigs or shooters)
eFG %: 36th
Kevin Obanor
Kevin Obanor is due to make about 34 3-pointers in a row. I predict he returns to form in a major way from behind the 3-pt line. His body of work in college as a shooter speaks for itself. Last year was the worst shooting season of his career (33%). I would set the over/under on his shooting percentage next year at 38%. He's going to be a big factor from behind the line.
In some ways, though, Obanor was one of the biggest surprises of last year's team. Because he showed everyone that he can impact a Big 12 game in a lot of ways. For a guy that was billed as unathletic and slow footed, he was a monster on the boards and a plus defender. That part of his game isn't going away and has likely improved with another year in the weight room. He's going to be a bully. One of the oldest players in the conference. Was a top 10 Big 12 rebounder last year. And probably a top 15 shot blocker.
There were 46 "high-usage" guys in the Big 12 last year. This is how Obanor ranked:
Points per possession: 8th (on the worst shooting season of his life)
Shooting fouls drawn: 21st
Turnover percentage: 6th
eFG %: 9th
Obanor would be one of the favorites next year to lead the conference in eFG%. He gets a lot of easy put backs and baskets at the rim, and he's got the ability to shoot 45% from the 3.
Jaylon Tyson
A lot of people close to the program are high on him. Really good size for a guard and was a great shooter in HS. I love that he's a year out of HS and has spent the last 10 or so months in the program. That bodes well for him, since playing as a true FR is just really tough in this league. If Tech is going to have a "successful" season this year, we probably need him to be a major hit as a recruit / transfer.
Pop Isaacs
Really excited about this guy. Having watched him play in HS (against solid competition), he's "got that dawg in him." He's really light. Probably under 170 pounds. But he can create off the dribble and shoot the basketball. However, things will be different in D1 hoops. It can be tough to play in this league for young guys, even more so for guys who spent much of the summer rehabbing a hip surgery. I'm tempering expectations as much as possible, but still very excited about his potential.
To put things in perspective, a certain FR PG from the last Big 12 season was thought to be the #1 guy in the transfer portal over the offseason. He ranked 44 out of 46 guys in turnover percentage and 41 out of 46 in eFG %. He's a really good player that went through some serious rough patches. He plays for UT now so I hope those rough patches continue.
The good news for Pop is that we have Harmon to share the load in possessing and distributing the basketball. Tyrese Hunter didn't have that at Iowa State. So we can bring Pop along a little slower. He's capable of being one of our best players by March, though. He's got that kind of potential.
Daniel Batcho
Early reports indicate that he's the best basketball player in progrum history. I'm not sure there's ever been more hype for a returning player that played 20% of a team's minutes the preceding year and made just 5 baskets in conference play. I think I even saw Elon Musk tweeting this morning about Batcho. The hype is insane.
It was tough sledding taking minutes from Bryson, MSS and Obanor last year, so I'm not holding his lack of playing time against him. There's also no way everyone affiliated with Tech basketball is in on this conspiracy to convince us all that Batcho is the next Hakeem Olajuwon if he hasn't been dominating practices at the Womble the last 6 months. There's something going on here, for sure.
He's a large man. Very athletic. We saw that athleticism in spades last year when he would get switched out on the perimeter and more than hold his own. His block %, if he would've played more minutes and qualified, would've been top 5 in the Big 12. Batcho should be one of the best rim protectors in the conference, and that's going to go be an X factor for our defense.
As good as the defense was last year, and as good as Bryson Williams was at basketball, we often lacked that big time shot blocker in the paint. That could change with Batcho. Mark Adams' defense can be on a different planet when it has an elite shot blocker patrolling the paint.
KJ Allen
A very unique player in today's game. Listed at 6'6 and 255 pounds. Has unbelievable grip strength. If a loose ball or rebound is anywhere near him, KJ secures it. I bet he carves out a nice role as a team player, a bruiser, a garbage man and overall menace to opposing teams. I won't be surprised if he literally kills someone on the offensive glass during non-conference play.
Elijah Fisher
Will be one of the youngest players in the country next year. Reports out of summer were extremely encouraging. He's apparently very scrappy. Good size. Was asked to do everything for his HS and AAU team. He will be in a much different role for this year's team. One that probably suits him a lot better, since he was not the most efficient shooter.
Lamar Washington
Part of me wants to predict that Washington ends up having the biggest impact of any true FR. I like his game. 6'4, 205 pounds is good size for a FR guard. And he's played some really high-level prep basketball, which should help him transition to D1 hoops.
D'Maurian Williams
With all the youth on this team, I'm glad we have a guy like Williams that has been through the grind of a college basketball season and played a lot of minutes. He was the best player on an average to above average small-school team. Played over 80% of Gardner Webb's minutes. Has back-to-back seasons of shooting above 38% from 3 on over 100 attempts. This guy has skins on the wall. A really low TO rate and a high assist rate.
I bet if you ranked transfer portal guys based on how cheap they were to obtain via NIL money, Williams is in the top 5 or top 10. He was 2nd team Big South last year. The guy can hoop a little bit.
Kerwin Walton
Walton feels like a bit of wildcard. He's a 6'5 knock-down shooter. Literally set shooting records at North Carolina, and I heard they played a bit of basketball at that school. But he transferred / was removed from their rotation for a reason last year (although not a ton of shame in that considering the way they finished the year).
I'm sure we can find a spot for him if he buys in to the way we play defense. With all the youth and inexperience on this team, he's a big pick-up as an insurance policy to some of the FR not being ready to play. Anyone that plays over 50% of the minutes at North Carolina as a true FR has potential. It would be really nice if Adams and Steve Green can unlock that potential.
Fardaws Aimaq
Call me a hater, but I'm not sold that he has a big impact this year. I don't think big guys can spend half the season in a boot and on a scooter and get back into playing form in time to impact Big 12 games. I hope he can. But it seems way too optimistic to me.
Ryan left it all out on the field in everything he did. In his honor, we bring you Fields of Gold, so that others facing bone cancer can keep on playing. A portion of proceeds from every case sold is donated to The Little Warrior Foundation.
The Little Warrior Foundation's mission is to fund & find a lasting cure for childhood cancer, with a specific focus on Ewing's Sarcoma.
https://shop.summerlandwinebrands.com/Shop/Fields-of-Gold
@Saynotobarefoot
Kenpom predicts a 20-9 record for Tech. 10-8 in the conference. Tech is rated as the 17th best team in the country. Essentially tied with TCU, but well behind Texas, Kansas, and Baylor.
3-man Weave has Tech as the 18th best team in the country. That was also pre-Aimaq injury, and they were really high on him.
Circa has Tech with the 18th shortest odds to win the national title. It comes out to like a 2% chance.
I think it's fair to say that we have top 20 team. And that's exciting.
De'vion Harmon
We're going to love this guy. A pace and tone-setter PG. Not the tallest, but very physical for his position. Should lead the team in minutes played, time spent possessing the ball, time spent defending the ball, and assists. So, I think it's fair to call him the most important player on the team, especially when you consider the youth and inexperience behind him. True FR point guards have not fared well historically in the rugged Big 12, so we need Harmon to stay healthy. Many will probably respond in this post that Pop Isaacs will possess the ball more than Harmon. I'm sure he will help out, but I think this team goes as Harmon goes.
Harmon was a bit of an outlier for FR Big 12 point guards in his 2020 season at OU. He was solid. Very solid. One thing he did well was take care of the basketball. Also got to the free throw line at a solid clip (he's a physical guy). He's really effective in transition, pushing the ball to find shooters and finishing tough shots in transition.
I think it's fair to call Harmon's season at Oregon disappointing. He wasn't as efficient. A change of scenery back to the Big 12, and getting closer to home should do him well.
One thing he has been elite at throughout his career -- and this is something that probably caught the eye of Mark Adams -- is how well he can defend the ball without fouling. He'll be one of the best point-of-attack defenders in the country in that regard, and it's even more impressive when you consider how often he produces steals. And they are generally open-floor, point-producing steals.
As I already mentioned, I think a lot of our season will depend on Harmon because of how much I anticipate he will possess the basketball. If we are indeed a better shot-making team, then we will depend on a guy (Harmon or Isaacs) to create some of those looks for shooters.
There were 59 "high-usage" guys in the Pac-12 last year. This is how Harmon ranked
Points per possession: 39th
Shooting fouls drawn: 37th
Turnover percentage: 14th (that's really good for a PG -- almost everyone ahead of him are bigs or shooters)
eFG %: 36th
Kevin Obanor
Kevin Obanor is due to make about 34 3-pointers in a row. I predict he returns to form in a major way from behind the 3-pt line. His body of work in college as a shooter speaks for itself. Last year was the worst shooting season of his career (33%). I would set the over/under on his shooting percentage next year at 38%. He's going to be a big factor from behind the line.
In some ways, though, Obanor was one of the biggest surprises of last year's team. Because he showed everyone that he can impact a Big 12 game in a lot of ways. For a guy that was billed as unathletic and slow footed, he was a monster on the boards and a plus defender. That part of his game isn't going away and has likely improved with another year in the weight room. He's going to be a bully. One of the oldest players in the conference. Was a top 10 Big 12 rebounder last year. And probably a top 15 shot blocker.
There were 46 "high-usage" guys in the Big 12 last year. This is how Obanor ranked:
Points per possession: 8th (on the worst shooting season of his life)
Shooting fouls drawn: 21st
Turnover percentage: 6th
eFG %: 9th
Obanor would be one of the favorites next year to lead the conference in eFG%. He gets a lot of easy put backs and baskets at the rim, and he's got the ability to shoot 45% from the 3.
Jaylon Tyson
A lot of people close to the program are high on him. Really good size for a guard and was a great shooter in HS. I love that he's a year out of HS and has spent the last 10 or so months in the program. That bodes well for him, since playing as a true FR is just really tough in this league. If Tech is going to have a "successful" season this year, we probably need him to be a major hit as a recruit / transfer.
Pop Isaacs
Really excited about this guy. Having watched him play in HS (against solid competition), he's "got that dawg in him." He's really light. Probably under 170 pounds. But he can create off the dribble and shoot the basketball. However, things will be different in D1 hoops. It can be tough to play in this league for young guys, even more so for guys who spent much of the summer rehabbing a hip surgery. I'm tempering expectations as much as possible, but still very excited about his potential.
To put things in perspective, a certain FR PG from the last Big 12 season was thought to be the #1 guy in the transfer portal over the offseason. He ranked 44 out of 46 guys in turnover percentage and 41 out of 46 in eFG %. He's a really good player that went through some serious rough patches. He plays for UT now so I hope those rough patches continue.
The good news for Pop is that we have Harmon to share the load in possessing and distributing the basketball. Tyrese Hunter didn't have that at Iowa State. So we can bring Pop along a little slower. He's capable of being one of our best players by March, though. He's got that kind of potential.
Daniel Batcho
Early reports indicate that he's the best basketball player in progrum history. I'm not sure there's ever been more hype for a returning player that played 20% of a team's minutes the preceding year and made just 5 baskets in conference play. I think I even saw Elon Musk tweeting this morning about Batcho. The hype is insane.
It was tough sledding taking minutes from Bryson, MSS and Obanor last year, so I'm not holding his lack of playing time against him. There's also no way everyone affiliated with Tech basketball is in on this conspiracy to convince us all that Batcho is the next Hakeem Olajuwon if he hasn't been dominating practices at the Womble the last 6 months. There's something going on here, for sure.
He's a large man. Very athletic. We saw that athleticism in spades last year when he would get switched out on the perimeter and more than hold his own. His block %, if he would've played more minutes and qualified, would've been top 5 in the Big 12. Batcho should be one of the best rim protectors in the conference, and that's going to go be an X factor for our defense.
As good as the defense was last year, and as good as Bryson Williams was at basketball, we often lacked that big time shot blocker in the paint. That could change with Batcho. Mark Adams' defense can be on a different planet when it has an elite shot blocker patrolling the paint.
KJ Allen
A very unique player in today's game. Listed at 6'6 and 255 pounds. Has unbelievable grip strength. If a loose ball or rebound is anywhere near him, KJ secures it. I bet he carves out a nice role as a team player, a bruiser, a garbage man and overall menace to opposing teams. I won't be surprised if he literally kills someone on the offensive glass during non-conference play.
Elijah Fisher
Will be one of the youngest players in the country next year. Reports out of summer were extremely encouraging. He's apparently very scrappy. Good size. Was asked to do everything for his HS and AAU team. He will be in a much different role for this year's team. One that probably suits him a lot better, since he was not the most efficient shooter.
Lamar Washington
Part of me wants to predict that Washington ends up having the biggest impact of any true FR. I like his game. 6'4, 205 pounds is good size for a FR guard. And he's played some really high-level prep basketball, which should help him transition to D1 hoops.
D'Maurian Williams
With all the youth on this team, I'm glad we have a guy like Williams that has been through the grind of a college basketball season and played a lot of minutes. He was the best player on an average to above average small-school team. Played over 80% of Gardner Webb's minutes. Has back-to-back seasons of shooting above 38% from 3 on over 100 attempts. This guy has skins on the wall. A really low TO rate and a high assist rate.
I bet if you ranked transfer portal guys based on how cheap they were to obtain via NIL money, Williams is in the top 5 or top 10. He was 2nd team Big South last year. The guy can hoop a little bit.
Kerwin Walton
Walton feels like a bit of wildcard. He's a 6'5 knock-down shooter. Literally set shooting records at North Carolina, and I heard they played a bit of basketball at that school. But he transferred / was removed from their rotation for a reason last year (although not a ton of shame in that considering the way they finished the year).
I'm sure we can find a spot for him if he buys in to the way we play defense. With all the youth and inexperience on this team, he's a big pick-up as an insurance policy to some of the FR not being ready to play. Anyone that plays over 50% of the minutes at North Carolina as a true FR has potential. It would be really nice if Adams and Steve Green can unlock that potential.
Fardaws Aimaq
Call me a hater, but I'm not sold that he has a big impact this year. I don't think big guys can spend half the season in a boot and on a scooter and get back into playing form in time to impact Big 12 games. I hope he can. But it seems way too optimistic to me.
Ryan left it all out on the field in everything he did. In his honor, we bring you Fields of Gold, so that others facing bone cancer can keep on playing. A portion of proceeds from every case sold is donated to The Little Warrior Foundation.
The Little Warrior Foundation's mission is to fund & find a lasting cure for childhood cancer, with a specific focus on Ewing's Sarcoma.
https://shop.summerlandwinebrands.com/Shop/Fields-of-Gold
@Saynotobarefoot
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