Pete Thamel of Sports Illustrated wrote a column today on Big 12 expansion. Much of it was about the dysfunction in the conference. But toward the end he listed the likelihood of what the Big 12 would do.
Thamel, former national college football writer at the New York Times, is pretty plugged in. Some of it is what he's gleaned and the rest is just informed opinion. Here's the excerpt:
The Big 12 adds Cincinnati and Houston: 60%
It has gotten so sideways for the Big 12 that the key tenet driving expansion decisions could be what will yield the least embarrassing press conference. Could David Boren get trotted out in front of the media and explain not taking Houston? Likely not. Especially a few weeks after the Cougars pounded the Sooners, sold out NRG Stadium and did a remarkable 12.8 television rating in Houston.
Could Boren defend taking BYU? Probably not after a slew of LGBT groups have spoken out against the school, which has an "honor code" that includes the following provision: "Homosexual behavior is inappropriate and violates the Honor Code. Homosexual behavior includes not only sexual relations between members of the same sex, but all forms of physical intimacy that give expression to homosexual feelings."
There's already been a student government vote at Iowa State against the admission of BYU.
The potential of BYU's candidacy has taken a precipitous dip. (Boren had long been considered a huge backer of BYU, which some speculate may be a reason he has cooled on his expansion stance.)
As for Cincinnati, the school has handled this process calmly and coolly. It is the Big 12's safety date, and it's hard to consider a scenario where the Big 12 expands and it doesn't get invited. (Unless something drastic changes in the tenor of how BYU is viewed.)
Houston is a much more polarizing candidate, as myopic coaches and officials at TCU, Oklahoma State,Kansas State and Iowa State have all spoken out against Houston's candidacy. But in the end, it's hard to imagine the Big 12 selling the public on not taking Houston, because of its market and football potential.
Nothing happens: 30%
This is the dysfunction option. Commissioner Bob Bowlsby clearly wants to expand, or he wouldn't have endured these two months of nonsense. But the Big 12 has a long history of its commissioners—Kevin Weiberg and Dan Beebe come to mind—not being able to control the presidents.
BYU is toxic, but some presidents still feel it is the strongest addition and brings the biggest national following. Houston has the most potential as a program, but may have the least support. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State aren't giddy about Houston. Texas has come out publicly saying it will favor the Cougars, but there are few in Austin political circles who feel like that's anything more than public posturing. If Texas was serious about supporting Houston, it would have to back it up with action. The chance that Texas votes to extend the league's grant of rights in order to support Houston's candidacy is completely unrealistic.
Basically, the Big 12 needs Houston more than it wants it. It would have preferred BYU, but can't take another spate of bad publicity. (There were already complications with BYU refusing to schedule games on Sunday, but those pale in comparison to forcing risk-averse presidents to take a stand against LGBT groups.) Cincinnati is safe, but it falls into the old line about the Big 12. If there were perfect options for the league it would have expanded already.
But we'll bring this back to Boren standing in front of the media. After an expansion dog-and-pony show that would make the folks at Westminster and Churchill Downs blush, how bad would it look if the league decided to do nothing?The only thing certain after two months is that this league is nowhere near consensus.
Something wacky happens: 10%
Always leave the Big 12 wiggle room for the unpredictable. Could there be four teams added for a money grab and an entrée into Florida? Sure. But the only school not yet mentioned that is still perceived to have a realistic chance in all this is Connecticut. Yet UConn's chances have dimmed as BYU's candidacy has crumbled, as both could have conceivably been added as football-only. UConn would have placed its other sports in the Big East. (UConn's candidacy really got hurt when the league decided against a television network, as UConn's Northeast market was a much better sell than its football program.)
What else wacky could happen? Nothing should be left off the table. But for now, only Cincinnati, Houston, BYU and Connecticut have a reasonable chance. And it appears Cincinnati and Houston have pulled away. But this being the Big 12, we know there's a lot of time left for something strange to happen.
Thamel, former national college football writer at the New York Times, is pretty plugged in. Some of it is what he's gleaned and the rest is just informed opinion. Here's the excerpt:
The Big 12 adds Cincinnati and Houston: 60%
It has gotten so sideways for the Big 12 that the key tenet driving expansion decisions could be what will yield the least embarrassing press conference. Could David Boren get trotted out in front of the media and explain not taking Houston? Likely not. Especially a few weeks after the Cougars pounded the Sooners, sold out NRG Stadium and did a remarkable 12.8 television rating in Houston.
Could Boren defend taking BYU? Probably not after a slew of LGBT groups have spoken out against the school, which has an "honor code" that includes the following provision: "Homosexual behavior is inappropriate and violates the Honor Code. Homosexual behavior includes not only sexual relations between members of the same sex, but all forms of physical intimacy that give expression to homosexual feelings."
There's already been a student government vote at Iowa State against the admission of BYU.
The potential of BYU's candidacy has taken a precipitous dip. (Boren had long been considered a huge backer of BYU, which some speculate may be a reason he has cooled on his expansion stance.)
As for Cincinnati, the school has handled this process calmly and coolly. It is the Big 12's safety date, and it's hard to consider a scenario where the Big 12 expands and it doesn't get invited. (Unless something drastic changes in the tenor of how BYU is viewed.)
Houston is a much more polarizing candidate, as myopic coaches and officials at TCU, Oklahoma State,Kansas State and Iowa State have all spoken out against Houston's candidacy. But in the end, it's hard to imagine the Big 12 selling the public on not taking Houston, because of its market and football potential.
Nothing happens: 30%
This is the dysfunction option. Commissioner Bob Bowlsby clearly wants to expand, or he wouldn't have endured these two months of nonsense. But the Big 12 has a long history of its commissioners—Kevin Weiberg and Dan Beebe come to mind—not being able to control the presidents.
BYU is toxic, but some presidents still feel it is the strongest addition and brings the biggest national following. Houston has the most potential as a program, but may have the least support. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State aren't giddy about Houston. Texas has come out publicly saying it will favor the Cougars, but there are few in Austin political circles who feel like that's anything more than public posturing. If Texas was serious about supporting Houston, it would have to back it up with action. The chance that Texas votes to extend the league's grant of rights in order to support Houston's candidacy is completely unrealistic.
Basically, the Big 12 needs Houston more than it wants it. It would have preferred BYU, but can't take another spate of bad publicity. (There were already complications with BYU refusing to schedule games on Sunday, but those pale in comparison to forcing risk-averse presidents to take a stand against LGBT groups.) Cincinnati is safe, but it falls into the old line about the Big 12. If there were perfect options for the league it would have expanded already.
But we'll bring this back to Boren standing in front of the media. After an expansion dog-and-pony show that would make the folks at Westminster and Churchill Downs blush, how bad would it look if the league decided to do nothing?The only thing certain after two months is that this league is nowhere near consensus.
Something wacky happens: 10%
Always leave the Big 12 wiggle room for the unpredictable. Could there be four teams added for a money grab and an entrée into Florida? Sure. But the only school not yet mentioned that is still perceived to have a realistic chance in all this is Connecticut. Yet UConn's chances have dimmed as BYU's candidacy has crumbled, as both could have conceivably been added as football-only. UConn would have placed its other sports in the Big East. (UConn's candidacy really got hurt when the league decided against a television network, as UConn's Northeast market was a much better sell than its football program.)
What else wacky could happen? Nothing should be left off the table. But for now, only Cincinnati, Houston, BYU and Connecticut have a reasonable chance. And it appears Cincinnati and Houston have pulled away. But this being the Big 12, we know there's a lot of time left for something strange to happen.
