1. Separation at the Top
Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU rank Nos. 1-3 nationally in total offense, scoring offense and yards per play.
If you drill down and look only at the Big 12, there are sizable gaps in those same three categories between Nos. 3 and 4. There's a 13.7-point gap in scoring offense between No. 3 TCU (51.0) and No. 4 Oklahoma State (37.3). It's the same story with total offense, a 127.1-yard gap between No. 3 TCU (615.5) and No. 4 West Virginia (488.4). Then there's yards per play, where No. 3 TCU (7.77) enjoys a a 1.38-yard lead over No. 4 Oklahoma (6.39). This remains true in points per play, as well -- No. 3 Baylor (0.80) is comfortably ahead of No. 4 Oklahoma State (0.53).
I think you see what I'm getting at.
Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU are the class of the Big 12 offensively. The rest of the league is a step or two behind and none of those teams have shown a consistent ability to score in bunches like the three at the top.
Oklahoma State has scored in the 20s and 30s all season except for a 69-point outburst against UTSA. Oklahoma is averaging 30.7 points per game against Power Five teams. West Virginia is averaging 31.7.
Put it another way: Iowa State's numbers are closer offensively to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma than the Pokes or Cowboys are to Texas Tech, Baylor or TCU.
2. Defining Stretch
For all of the talk over the offseason of Texas Tech's three-game stretch against Arkansas, TCU and Baylor, how this team performers in late October and November will determine how it's remembered far more what it did in September and early October.
Texas Tech will win on Saturday, and then the real work begins.
If you look at the last five games of each of the last four seasons, Texas Tech is 0-5, 1-4, 0-5 and 1-4 (a combined 2-18). The two wins were against Kansas and Iowa State, and only four of the losses were by eight points or less.
The Red Raiders have consistently faded over the last four years as the season deepened.
Now we'll see if Kliff Kingsbury and his coaching staff can reverse that negative trend in the same way that they did the program's penalty and turnover problems.
3. Mighty Morphin Power Rankings
1. Baylor (1) -- Notice how no one is talking about Baylor's non-conference schedule right now? BU continues to win that argument.
2. TCU (2) -- The Frogs are kind of like a better version of Oklahoma State. Their wins aren't always pretty, but they still win.
3. Oklahoma State (4) -- There's a faint whiff of "2013 Texas Tech" with this group, but 6-0 is still 6-0. Pokes will be 7-0 heading into a Halloween date with the Red Raiders.
4. Texas Tech (6) -- Texas Tech's defense is suspect, but its offense is nationally elite.
5. Oklahoma (3) -- The Sooners' offensive line is trash and will be a major problem as their schedule toughens.
6. West Virginia (5) -- The 'Eers got average in a hurry.
7. Texas (8) -- UT's big win over Oklahoma probably says more about the Sooners than it does the Longhorns.
8. Kansas State (7) -- K-State has played well despite massive quarterback issues and narrowly missed out on wins the last two weeks.
9. Iowa State (9) -- Bye Paul.
11. Kansas (10) -- Going to be ugly on Saturday.
4. Last Time Out
5. Scattershots
Would you rather Texas Tech have an opportunity to punch up (e.g. 2013 Holiday Bowl) or punch down (e.g. 2010 TicketCity Bowl) in its bowl game?
7. Confession Time
I am the result of a broken condom.
8. Number to Know
12.8 -- Kansas is averaging 12.8 points per game in its last six games against FBS competition. The most points the Jayhawks have scored over that stretch is 23 (Memphis).
9. Prediction for Saturday
Record -- 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS
TEXAS TECH 59, Kansas 21
10. And Finally...
Less than five days until Texas Tech's bye week against Kansas.
Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU rank Nos. 1-3 nationally in total offense, scoring offense and yards per play.
If you drill down and look only at the Big 12, there are sizable gaps in those same three categories between Nos. 3 and 4. There's a 13.7-point gap in scoring offense between No. 3 TCU (51.0) and No. 4 Oklahoma State (37.3). It's the same story with total offense, a 127.1-yard gap between No. 3 TCU (615.5) and No. 4 West Virginia (488.4). Then there's yards per play, where No. 3 TCU (7.77) enjoys a a 1.38-yard lead over No. 4 Oklahoma (6.39). This remains true in points per play, as well -- No. 3 Baylor (0.80) is comfortably ahead of No. 4 Oklahoma State (0.53).
I think you see what I'm getting at.
Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU are the class of the Big 12 offensively. The rest of the league is a step or two behind and none of those teams have shown a consistent ability to score in bunches like the three at the top.
Oklahoma State has scored in the 20s and 30s all season except for a 69-point outburst against UTSA. Oklahoma is averaging 30.7 points per game against Power Five teams. West Virginia is averaging 31.7.
Put it another way: Iowa State's numbers are closer offensively to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma than the Pokes or Cowboys are to Texas Tech, Baylor or TCU.
2. Defining Stretch
For all of the talk over the offseason of Texas Tech's three-game stretch against Arkansas, TCU and Baylor, how this team performers in late October and November will determine how it's remembered far more what it did in September and early October.
Texas Tech will win on Saturday, and then the real work begins.
If you look at the last five games of each of the last four seasons, Texas Tech is 0-5, 1-4, 0-5 and 1-4 (a combined 2-18). The two wins were against Kansas and Iowa State, and only four of the losses were by eight points or less.
The Red Raiders have consistently faded over the last four years as the season deepened.
Now we'll see if Kliff Kingsbury and his coaching staff can reverse that negative trend in the same way that they did the program's penalty and turnover problems.
3. Mighty Morphin Power Rankings
1. Baylor (1) -- Notice how no one is talking about Baylor's non-conference schedule right now? BU continues to win that argument.
2. TCU (2) -- The Frogs are kind of like a better version of Oklahoma State. Their wins aren't always pretty, but they still win.
3. Oklahoma State (4) -- There's a faint whiff of "2013 Texas Tech" with this group, but 6-0 is still 6-0. Pokes will be 7-0 heading into a Halloween date with the Red Raiders.
4. Texas Tech (6) -- Texas Tech's defense is suspect, but its offense is nationally elite.
5. Oklahoma (3) -- The Sooners' offensive line is trash and will be a major problem as their schedule toughens.
6. West Virginia (5) -- The 'Eers got average in a hurry.
7. Texas (8) -- UT's big win over Oklahoma probably says more about the Sooners than it does the Longhorns.
8. Kansas State (7) -- K-State has played well despite massive quarterback issues and narrowly missed out on wins the last two weeks.
9. Iowa State (9) -- Bye Paul.
11. Kansas (10) -- Going to be ugly on Saturday.
4. Last Time Out
5. Scattershots
- If the current Texas Tech-Kansas line of minus-30.5 holds or grows, it will mark the largest spread the Red Raiders have ever faced as a Big 12 road favorite. In the Air Raid era, Texas Tech has been a Big 12 road favorite of 20-plus points just four times: minus-21 at Texas A&M in 2008, minus-20 at Baylor in 2007, minus-23 at Oklahoma State in 2005 and minus-25 at Baylor in 2003. The team went 2-2 against the spread in those games, including an outright loss to the Pokes.
- The Red Raiders have scored 43 touchdowns through six games this season. Last year, the team scored a total of 49 touchdowns.
- The school record for single-season points is 569, set in 2008. That year's Texas Tech team had 39 touchdowns in its first six games.
- The Red Raiders lead the FBS in gains of 10-plus yards (132), gains of 20-plus yards (50), gains of 30-plus yards (30), gains of 40-plus yards (19) and gains of 50-plus yards (12).
- Texas Tech is sixth in the Big 12 in penalties per game (7.5) and fifth in penalty yards per game (60.3).
- The Red Raiders are tied for second in the Big 12 in overall turnover margin (plus-5). Texas (plus-6) leads the league.
- Texas Tech's 8.4 yards per carry average against Iowa State was its highest since averaging 9.2 yards per carry against Baylor on Nov. 4, 2006.
- Pat Mahomes and Trevone Boykin are tied for the Big 12 lead in total offense with 411.5 yards per game.
- Mahomes leads the Big 12 in attempts (257), completions (167) and passing yards (2,264).
- Mahomes is now 7-2-1 against the spread as a starter. The two losses were last week's game against Baylor and the 2014 Texas game.
- Jakeem Grant is second in the Big 12 in plays of 10-plus yards (25).
- Dakota Allen leads the Big 12 in tackles (58). Micah Awe is fifth (47) and Jah'Shawn Johnson is seventh (43).
- Taylor Symmank leads the Big 12 in kickoff average (64.51). His 72.97 percent touchback rate is second in the league behind Texas' Nick Rose (73.33).
- Kliff Kingsbury is now 12-2 when leading at the half, 1-13 when trailing and 3-0 when tied. The exceptions: The Red Raiders lost to West Virginia (21-10) and Oklahoma (14-7) in 2014 despite leading at the half, and overcame a three-point halftime deficit to Iowa State last year to win.
- The Red Raiders are now 2-0 under Kingsbury when wearing black helmets, black jerseys and white pants. The team also wore this combination in last year's win against UTEP.
Would you rather Texas Tech have an opportunity to punch up (e.g. 2013 Holiday Bowl) or punch down (e.g. 2010 TicketCity Bowl) in its bowl game?
7. Confession Time
I am the result of a broken condom.
8. Number to Know
12.8 -- Kansas is averaging 12.8 points per game in its last six games against FBS competition. The most points the Jayhawks have scored over that stretch is 23 (Memphis).
9. Prediction for Saturday
Record -- 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS
TEXAS TECH 59, Kansas 21
10. And Finally...
Less than five days until Texas Tech's bye week against Kansas.
