- There were more than a couple surprises from the selection committee this year. NC State missing out completely, ND should have hosted, UT didn't deserve to host. I still think TTU got a relatively favorable matchup in this regional. Surprisingly, I would pick Georgia Southern (the host) as the 3rd best team in this regional behind Notre Dame and TTU.
SCHEDULES
- I always like to dive into a year long schedule and see who teams have faced off against. ND played only 49 games this season as a result of losing 5 games due to bad weather. NC State, Northwestern, Va Tech X2 and one game against Marist all lost because of weather.
- ND was swept by Duke and Louisville, and also lost series to Miami and Va Tech (Just one game). Series sweeps over FSU and Clemson in the middle of the year propelled them to a 9 game win streak before getting swept in Durham to Duke.
- It's no secret that TTU can play with anybody in the country, but they've also shown they can be the victim of playing down to competition too. Losses to KU/Baylor/WVU to thwart would be sweeps hurts. But the midweek losses really blew up their all important RPI. UNM, ACU, GCU X2... No reason to lose those games.
- Tech did go 15-9 and finish second in the league, which apparently doesn't matter at all anymore as the 4th and 5th place teams garnered host spots over the top 3.... interesting. Series wins over UT and Oklahoma State (sweep) highlight bolstered TTU.
- Georgia Southern is a tough read. They dominated an underwhelming conference and will host a regional for the first time in school history. Getting paired with tournament tested teams in ND and TTU is tough. The sun belt did have Texas State/Georgia Southern/Coastal Carolina at the top of the standings, but when the bottom 5 teams in a 12 team conference go 42-105.... woof.
- Tennessee shellacked GSU to start the year but I always take those first 2/3 weekends with a grain of salt. 1-2 vs Georgia. 1-2 vs Lousiana. Won the series with Texas State. Just a tough team to guage. We will see how they approach their first time hosting. '
- UNC Greensboro is a bid stealer from the southern conference. They came from the loser's bracket to win 5 straight games to win their conference tournament over Wofford. I believe Wofford ended up being left out of the tournament all together.
- Not many games or series of note. Wofford swept them in the regular season. 1-2 vs South Carolina. A whopping 20-2 defeat to NC State. Midweek losses to Wake Forest and Campbell.
LINEUPS
- This regional should stack up pretty well offensively. UNCG hits .311 as a team but doesn't have the same pop as ND or TTU. GSU hits .297, TTU .294 and ND .298. Pretty crazy to see how closely 3 out of the 4 teams matchup.
- Notre Dame is paced by Carter Putz, Zack Prajzner, Jack Brannigan and Brooks Coetzee. Jack Zyska also leads them in HR with 10 but has only started 29 games. They hit 65 total HR and slug .481 as a team.
- Just a random observation but teams have committed 78 errors against ND... kind of an outlier.
- UNCG has 6 starters hitting over .300. Hogan Windish and Kennedy Jones are hitting .380 and .374. Pretty impressive. Those two also have combined for 27 HR and 133 RBI. Their slugging percentage as a team is a little low at .457 and outside of Windish/Jones, the rest of the team has combined to hit 26 home runs in over 1,700 AB's.
- Another random stat, UNCG has allowed 93 SB this season.
- GSU hits .297 as a team. Noah Ledford is really the only longball threat, but can strikeout a ton. Actually GSU strikes out 8 times a game. So there could be a cold spell for the host team.
- Which Texas Tech offense shows up this weekend? When they're good, they're almost unstoppable. .294 as a team with a .502 slugging percentage. 83 total HR is by far the highest of this regional. The veterans need to play well. Jung/Wilson/Stillwell/Murrell need to have good weekends. Also leads the regional with a combined .405 OBP.
- Wildcard player to go insane for the weekend? Owen Washburn. I just love that kid's swing. He's got a little too much swing and miss right now, but the talent is there.
1 - Texas Tech - Just too much power in this lineup to stay quiet too long. When they're hitting, there isn't a hole in the lineup 1-9.
2 - Notre Dame - Just a very balanced offense. They don't strike out a ton and have pop from several spots.
3 - GSU - The strikeout totals are a little alarming. Especially when they don't have the ability to hit HR from 7 spots in the lineup like TTU.
4 - UNCG - Highest BA in the regional, but they will rely on stringing base hits together without the extra base power from the other teams.
PITCHING
- Notre Dame has the lowest ERA of the regional by over a run. John Bertrand and Austin Temple are one hell of a 1-2 punch. They also have 8 relievers with double digit appearances and an ERA below 4.0. I still think that if they didn't have the VT and NC State games cancelled, this team hosts. Gonna be a challenge to get to this staff.
- GSU will most likely trot out Ty Fisher and Jaylen Paden. This is a large chink for the hosts IMO. After Fisher, the only other starter with more than 7 starts is Paden with a 5.32 ERA. They do depend on Jay Thompson, Anthony DiMola and Jake Martin. They have combined for 77 appearances.
- Texas Tech is the interesting dark horse here. We all know how good Andrew Morris and Brandon Birdsell are. And, quite honestly, this rotation probably benefits the most from simply playing teams that haven't seen you 4 days prior..... looking at Oklahoma just blasting away. If Mason Molina or Chase Hampton can give you 5+ innings somewhere this weekend, I like our chances a lot. The bullpen is still a little scary, but Hitt, Bridges, Beckel, Becker, Devine have all shown moments of how good they can be.
- UNCG could have a rough weekend. Opponents bat .281 against them, and they've been prone to the BB/WP/HBP piling up. Austin Parsley and Jared Mathewson are more than capable, I just don't know if they have the horses.... especially if they get bounced to the loser's side as innings mount.
1 - Notre Dame - Best staff of the regional, but all 4 teams boast impressive offenses. All it takes is one bad outing.
2 - Texas Tech - I just think Morris and Birdsell will have big bounce back weekends. Add in Good Hampton and Good Molina.... watch out.
3 - GSU - Not a lot of starter depth, is another team that would have issues if they don't stay in the winner's bracket.
4 - UNGC - Parsley can't pitch every day. They allow too much traffic on the bases.
This regional is a tough draw for GSU. Notre Dame could easily have hosted, and they boast an impressive pitching staff to boot. Texas Tech is one of the most hot/cold teams you could ask for. But there isn't a doubt that Tech can beat anybody. Can they put that together for a weekend like when they swept Oklahoma State?
Who had the 4 seed with a .311 team batting average?
Bertrand and Birdsell are bonafide aces.
I do have one major gripe to just get out there....The Big 12 current design just isn't sustainable, especially if they put more weight on a weekend showcase to end the year than the 24 game slate where we play everyone. It's maddening. "Hey we know that you lost to pretty much anyone with a pulse but you mad the championship game to play the same team for the 6th and 7th times so you get to host!" I'm 100% looking forward to a new format with the new teams joining. This dang conf does it to themselves in all three major sports. Football championship? - Rematch. Hoops tourney - Useless. Baseball tourney - Useless-er.
From an odds standpoint, I think ND is the team to beat this weekend. That first game is massive. I would like to send them to the losers side to burn up arms. Tech can absolutely win this thing too.
"Can't win them all without winning the first one."
SCHEDULES
- I always like to dive into a year long schedule and see who teams have faced off against. ND played only 49 games this season as a result of losing 5 games due to bad weather. NC State, Northwestern, Va Tech X2 and one game against Marist all lost because of weather.
- ND was swept by Duke and Louisville, and also lost series to Miami and Va Tech (Just one game). Series sweeps over FSU and Clemson in the middle of the year propelled them to a 9 game win streak before getting swept in Durham to Duke.
- It's no secret that TTU can play with anybody in the country, but they've also shown they can be the victim of playing down to competition too. Losses to KU/Baylor/WVU to thwart would be sweeps hurts. But the midweek losses really blew up their all important RPI. UNM, ACU, GCU X2... No reason to lose those games.
- Tech did go 15-9 and finish second in the league, which apparently doesn't matter at all anymore as the 4th and 5th place teams garnered host spots over the top 3.... interesting. Series wins over UT and Oklahoma State (sweep) highlight bolstered TTU.
- Georgia Southern is a tough read. They dominated an underwhelming conference and will host a regional for the first time in school history. Getting paired with tournament tested teams in ND and TTU is tough. The sun belt did have Texas State/Georgia Southern/Coastal Carolina at the top of the standings, but when the bottom 5 teams in a 12 team conference go 42-105.... woof.
- Tennessee shellacked GSU to start the year but I always take those first 2/3 weekends with a grain of salt. 1-2 vs Georgia. 1-2 vs Lousiana. Won the series with Texas State. Just a tough team to guage. We will see how they approach their first time hosting. '
- UNC Greensboro is a bid stealer from the southern conference. They came from the loser's bracket to win 5 straight games to win their conference tournament over Wofford. I believe Wofford ended up being left out of the tournament all together.
- Not many games or series of note. Wofford swept them in the regular season. 1-2 vs South Carolina. A whopping 20-2 defeat to NC State. Midweek losses to Wake Forest and Campbell.
LINEUPS
- This regional should stack up pretty well offensively. UNCG hits .311 as a team but doesn't have the same pop as ND or TTU. GSU hits .297, TTU .294 and ND .298. Pretty crazy to see how closely 3 out of the 4 teams matchup.
- Notre Dame is paced by Carter Putz, Zack Prajzner, Jack Brannigan and Brooks Coetzee. Jack Zyska also leads them in HR with 10 but has only started 29 games. They hit 65 total HR and slug .481 as a team.
- Just a random observation but teams have committed 78 errors against ND... kind of an outlier.
- UNCG has 6 starters hitting over .300. Hogan Windish and Kennedy Jones are hitting .380 and .374. Pretty impressive. Those two also have combined for 27 HR and 133 RBI. Their slugging percentage as a team is a little low at .457 and outside of Windish/Jones, the rest of the team has combined to hit 26 home runs in over 1,700 AB's.
- Another random stat, UNCG has allowed 93 SB this season.
- GSU hits .297 as a team. Noah Ledford is really the only longball threat, but can strikeout a ton. Actually GSU strikes out 8 times a game. So there could be a cold spell for the host team.
- Which Texas Tech offense shows up this weekend? When they're good, they're almost unstoppable. .294 as a team with a .502 slugging percentage. 83 total HR is by far the highest of this regional. The veterans need to play well. Jung/Wilson/Stillwell/Murrell need to have good weekends. Also leads the regional with a combined .405 OBP.
- Wildcard player to go insane for the weekend? Owen Washburn. I just love that kid's swing. He's got a little too much swing and miss right now, but the talent is there.
1 - Texas Tech - Just too much power in this lineup to stay quiet too long. When they're hitting, there isn't a hole in the lineup 1-9.
2 - Notre Dame - Just a very balanced offense. They don't strike out a ton and have pop from several spots.
3 - GSU - The strikeout totals are a little alarming. Especially when they don't have the ability to hit HR from 7 spots in the lineup like TTU.
4 - UNCG - Highest BA in the regional, but they will rely on stringing base hits together without the extra base power from the other teams.
PITCHING
- Notre Dame has the lowest ERA of the regional by over a run. John Bertrand and Austin Temple are one hell of a 1-2 punch. They also have 8 relievers with double digit appearances and an ERA below 4.0. I still think that if they didn't have the VT and NC State games cancelled, this team hosts. Gonna be a challenge to get to this staff.
- GSU will most likely trot out Ty Fisher and Jaylen Paden. This is a large chink for the hosts IMO. After Fisher, the only other starter with more than 7 starts is Paden with a 5.32 ERA. They do depend on Jay Thompson, Anthony DiMola and Jake Martin. They have combined for 77 appearances.
- Texas Tech is the interesting dark horse here. We all know how good Andrew Morris and Brandon Birdsell are. And, quite honestly, this rotation probably benefits the most from simply playing teams that haven't seen you 4 days prior..... looking at Oklahoma just blasting away. If Mason Molina or Chase Hampton can give you 5+ innings somewhere this weekend, I like our chances a lot. The bullpen is still a little scary, but Hitt, Bridges, Beckel, Becker, Devine have all shown moments of how good they can be.
- UNCG could have a rough weekend. Opponents bat .281 against them, and they've been prone to the BB/WP/HBP piling up. Austin Parsley and Jared Mathewson are more than capable, I just don't know if they have the horses.... especially if they get bounced to the loser's side as innings mount.
1 - Notre Dame - Best staff of the regional, but all 4 teams boast impressive offenses. All it takes is one bad outing.
2 - Texas Tech - I just think Morris and Birdsell will have big bounce back weekends. Add in Good Hampton and Good Molina.... watch out.
3 - GSU - Not a lot of starter depth, is another team that would have issues if they don't stay in the winner's bracket.
4 - UNGC - Parsley can't pitch every day. They allow too much traffic on the bases.
This regional is a tough draw for GSU. Notre Dame could easily have hosted, and they boast an impressive pitching staff to boot. Texas Tech is one of the most hot/cold teams you could ask for. But there isn't a doubt that Tech can beat anybody. Can they put that together for a weekend like when they swept Oklahoma State?
Who had the 4 seed with a .311 team batting average?
Bertrand and Birdsell are bonafide aces.
I do have one major gripe to just get out there....The Big 12 current design just isn't sustainable, especially if they put more weight on a weekend showcase to end the year than the 24 game slate where we play everyone. It's maddening. "Hey we know that you lost to pretty much anyone with a pulse but you mad the championship game to play the same team for the 6th and 7th times so you get to host!" I'm 100% looking forward to a new format with the new teams joining. This dang conf does it to themselves in all three major sports. Football championship? - Rematch. Hoops tourney - Useless. Baseball tourney - Useless-er.
From an odds standpoint, I think ND is the team to beat this weekend. That first game is massive. I would like to send them to the losers side to burn up arms. Tech can absolutely win this thing too.
"Can't win them all without winning the first one."
