Right now of course fans are focused on our problems in trying to have a good year this season. The focus, not surprisingly, will mostly be on whether or not our current players and coaching staff can get the program where fans want it to go.
In this post, I am going to try and step back from all that and offer some thoughts on the big picture in college football and think about how the changing landscape impacts us.
My first thought is that when we hired Coach Mcguire, it seemed like our thought process was something along these lines:
-we will get a guy with great contacts in the Texas HS coaching ranks
-we will get a guy who can bring along an excellent talent evaluator who has shown the ability to find "diamonds in the rough"
-this will improve our HS recruiting and allow Coach Mcguire to (over time) build up the talent and depth on the roster
At the same time, we all saw the landscape starting to shift in major way in college football as NIL took over. Here again, Tech seemed to be a bit ahead of the curve by setting up a well thought out NIL program earlier than many other schools. The idea seemed to be we will guarantee every player $25,000 on the basis that they work in the community in meaningful ways. This concept seemed to play well into a Coach like Mcguire who wants to be all about attracting HS kids that will come to your program and stay committed while the grow into better players over their time in the program. On top of all this, we decided to put $200 million into making our facilities 1st class so that potential recruits could be attracted to that as well.
So, this appeared to be (and still appears to be) the plan as best I understand it.
Meanwhile, the college football world we have all known all our lives was being turned upside down. Court rulings and human nature changed the landscape radically very quickly while we were busy trying to implement the plan above. Now college football is just the same as the NFL.
Money and what you can pay matters more than anything else. Kids (understandably) are going to go where they can make the most bank. Especially the kids who everyone wants and are the most talented and likely to go on to the NFL. It's just human nature.
So now, while it's great to have 1st class facilities and a worldview that you want athletes that are loyal to your school and program, the reality is that most of the most highly talented kids are not going to care about those things as much as in the past. Let's face it.
If a school offers you two or three times the amount another school will offer (either in straight revenue sharing from the school or from wealthy boosters getting you sweet NIL money), most highly talented kids will take the money over the facilities and the idea they need to connect with the community and do extra work in that regard. It's just human nature.
Now there will always be kids you can get that may not have money as their highest priority, but can you get enough of those that are talented enough to compete against everyone else if they can outbid you for players?
That's going to be tough to deal with in this brave new turned upside down college football landscape.
The "salary cap" may very help Tech compete at least in terms of the revenue sharing funds available if we can stay at the top of the cap. But outside NIL deals appear to be "sky is the limit" at many competing schools so that may be hard to match.
Then Tech always has to deal with the "Lubbock isn't for everyone" factor in attracting players (although if we are competitive with money that may actually diminish as a factor)
Now, again stepping back, who does Texas Tech need as a head football coach in a world like this?
It appears we need someone who
-wants to be at Tech and stay there long term (won't jump ship at the first hint of success)
-understands how college football has changed and can deal with a world where the players now have the leverage (can do anything they want in terms of where they play)
-can figure out how to implement "old school" values into players and things like discipline without driving them away to the next highest bidder if they don't like that atmosphere
-can not only recruit good enough players to compete at a high level, but also game plan and scheme well enough to win at a high level
-can connect well with fans, alumni, and former players and do all the "PR' things we expect coaches to do
-is enthused about Lubbock and will relentlessly sell it every chance they get
Now. If that is what we need, how many coaches are there on the face of the earth are there that can meet all those requirements? It's likely very few, so in the real world we have to try to find someone who can meet as many as possible.
These observations are not meant to offer any ideas on who should be our coach. Instead, it's just to point out that the big decision makers at Tech have to look at this enormously complex big picture in a new and turned upside down college football landscape. I'm sure there are other complex factors to consider I did not even list and it's not going to get any easier going forward. I guess my main point is that just changing out coaches in a world like this is not going to insure you are any better off than you are in the present. It's always been a risk and a gamble, now the risks (and stakes) are even higher for those who have to make these decisions.
In this post, I am going to try and step back from all that and offer some thoughts on the big picture in college football and think about how the changing landscape impacts us.
My first thought is that when we hired Coach Mcguire, it seemed like our thought process was something along these lines:
-we will get a guy with great contacts in the Texas HS coaching ranks
-we will get a guy who can bring along an excellent talent evaluator who has shown the ability to find "diamonds in the rough"
-this will improve our HS recruiting and allow Coach Mcguire to (over time) build up the talent and depth on the roster
At the same time, we all saw the landscape starting to shift in major way in college football as NIL took over. Here again, Tech seemed to be a bit ahead of the curve by setting up a well thought out NIL program earlier than many other schools. The idea seemed to be we will guarantee every player $25,000 on the basis that they work in the community in meaningful ways. This concept seemed to play well into a Coach like Mcguire who wants to be all about attracting HS kids that will come to your program and stay committed while the grow into better players over their time in the program. On top of all this, we decided to put $200 million into making our facilities 1st class so that potential recruits could be attracted to that as well.
So, this appeared to be (and still appears to be) the plan as best I understand it.
Meanwhile, the college football world we have all known all our lives was being turned upside down. Court rulings and human nature changed the landscape radically very quickly while we were busy trying to implement the plan above. Now college football is just the same as the NFL.
Money and what you can pay matters more than anything else. Kids (understandably) are going to go where they can make the most bank. Especially the kids who everyone wants and are the most talented and likely to go on to the NFL. It's just human nature.
So now, while it's great to have 1st class facilities and a worldview that you want athletes that are loyal to your school and program, the reality is that most of the most highly talented kids are not going to care about those things as much as in the past. Let's face it.
If a school offers you two or three times the amount another school will offer (either in straight revenue sharing from the school or from wealthy boosters getting you sweet NIL money), most highly talented kids will take the money over the facilities and the idea they need to connect with the community and do extra work in that regard. It's just human nature.
Now there will always be kids you can get that may not have money as their highest priority, but can you get enough of those that are talented enough to compete against everyone else if they can outbid you for players?
That's going to be tough to deal with in this brave new turned upside down college football landscape.
The "salary cap" may very help Tech compete at least in terms of the revenue sharing funds available if we can stay at the top of the cap. But outside NIL deals appear to be "sky is the limit" at many competing schools so that may be hard to match.
Then Tech always has to deal with the "Lubbock isn't for everyone" factor in attracting players (although if we are competitive with money that may actually diminish as a factor)
Now, again stepping back, who does Texas Tech need as a head football coach in a world like this?
It appears we need someone who
-wants to be at Tech and stay there long term (won't jump ship at the first hint of success)
-understands how college football has changed and can deal with a world where the players now have the leverage (can do anything they want in terms of where they play)
-can figure out how to implement "old school" values into players and things like discipline without driving them away to the next highest bidder if they don't like that atmosphere
-can not only recruit good enough players to compete at a high level, but also game plan and scheme well enough to win at a high level
-can connect well with fans, alumni, and former players and do all the "PR' things we expect coaches to do
-is enthused about Lubbock and will relentlessly sell it every chance they get
Now. If that is what we need, how many coaches are there on the face of the earth are there that can meet all those requirements? It's likely very few, so in the real world we have to try to find someone who can meet as many as possible.
These observations are not meant to offer any ideas on who should be our coach. Instead, it's just to point out that the big decision makers at Tech have to look at this enormously complex big picture in a new and turned upside down college football landscape. I'm sure there are other complex factors to consider I did not even list and it's not going to get any easier going forward. I guess my main point is that just changing out coaches in a world like this is not going to insure you are any better off than you are in the present. It's always been a risk and a gamble, now the risks (and stakes) are even higher for those who have to make these decisions.
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