By Chris Level
Level wrote and sent this to me for me to post since he's with his son at Matt Mooney's basketball camp.
… Lets’ start with the bottom line: No one really knows how this will play out or how long it will take to get to the end result.
… Do the Pac-12 and/or the Big Ten have to do something? Inaction could lead to them, the Pac-12 especially, falling further behind the SEC in terms of payouts. FOX will have a significant say in what happens next as it is the primary rights holder for both the Pac-12 and Big Ten. Does FOX want to maintain what it has, which will soon no longer include access to Texas or Oklahoma games, or go to battle with ESPN?
… Does the ACC need to do something? The league is in locked into a bad TV deal through 2036, and maintaining the status quo means that it will fall even further and further behind. I’m not sure what buttons the ACC can realistically push but the Clemson and Florida State types will get real antsy if they aren’t already. And if Texas A&M can’t block Texas from joining the SEC, South Carolina couldn’t stand in the way of a Clemson move.
… The timing of Oklahoma’s and Texas’ departure is at the forefront of what to watch for. The Sooners and Longhorns want out as quickly as possible and they would love nothing more than for all or most of the remaining eight Big 12 members to splinter off, leaving UT and OU free and clear of any exit penalty. The most likely scenario is the Longhorns and Sooners spending two more years in the Big 12.
… It makes you wonder if this outcome would have been different at all if the Big 12 had added Cincinnati and UCF back in 2016. Maybe the league would be in a stronger position than it was a week ago but, and this is a recurring theme throughout the Big 12’s history, Oklahoma and Texas did not have any interest in action.
… The best and worst thing about conference realignment is that you get all kinds of rumors, speculation and opinion. I have had more than one person tell me – this makes for a great conspiracy theory – that Nick Saban was ultimately responsible for what has happened over the last week because he wanted to knee-cap Texas A&M in recruiting. Saban has also been very outspoken about wanting more league games and he will now get them.
… You also get the “Just call up Notre Dame!” or “You know Nebraska would come back!” comments with realignment. That’s just part of it.
… Seriously, though, keep your bullshit meter up to date and in working order. You will probably be sifting through a lot of it over the coming months.
… My best guess on Texas Tech’s long-term future involves the Pac-12, a Big 12 3.0 with two to four additions or a newly-formed league that results from some kind of merger between the Big 12 and Pac-12 or ACC. This will largely be determined by the media rightsholders at this point. What does FOX, NBC, Discovery/WarnerMedia, Amazon, Hulu, Netflix, etc. want to do here because they will ultimately decide how it all plays out.
... What programs should the Big 12 add? That conversation should start with Cincinnati and then either BYU or UCF. Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU have an obvious interest in boxing Houston out of a Big 12 invite but if a rightsholder wants that market, the league would have to strongly look at adding the Cougars. The other options are South Florida, Memphis, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Tulane, Navy and SMU. The Mustangs face the same issues as Houston and would face similar opposition.
… Finally, it could take months before the post-2025 endgame is clear, and people involved are going to be very cautious about saying anything to anyone for fear of it hurting their institution’s future prospects.
Level wrote and sent this to me for me to post since he's with his son at Matt Mooney's basketball camp.
… Lets’ start with the bottom line: No one really knows how this will play out or how long it will take to get to the end result.
… Do the Pac-12 and/or the Big Ten have to do something? Inaction could lead to them, the Pac-12 especially, falling further behind the SEC in terms of payouts. FOX will have a significant say in what happens next as it is the primary rights holder for both the Pac-12 and Big Ten. Does FOX want to maintain what it has, which will soon no longer include access to Texas or Oklahoma games, or go to battle with ESPN?
… Does the ACC need to do something? The league is in locked into a bad TV deal through 2036, and maintaining the status quo means that it will fall even further and further behind. I’m not sure what buttons the ACC can realistically push but the Clemson and Florida State types will get real antsy if they aren’t already. And if Texas A&M can’t block Texas from joining the SEC, South Carolina couldn’t stand in the way of a Clemson move.
… The timing of Oklahoma’s and Texas’ departure is at the forefront of what to watch for. The Sooners and Longhorns want out as quickly as possible and they would love nothing more than for all or most of the remaining eight Big 12 members to splinter off, leaving UT and OU free and clear of any exit penalty. The most likely scenario is the Longhorns and Sooners spending two more years in the Big 12.
… It makes you wonder if this outcome would have been different at all if the Big 12 had added Cincinnati and UCF back in 2016. Maybe the league would be in a stronger position than it was a week ago but, and this is a recurring theme throughout the Big 12’s history, Oklahoma and Texas did not have any interest in action.
… The best and worst thing about conference realignment is that you get all kinds of rumors, speculation and opinion. I have had more than one person tell me – this makes for a great conspiracy theory – that Nick Saban was ultimately responsible for what has happened over the last week because he wanted to knee-cap Texas A&M in recruiting. Saban has also been very outspoken about wanting more league games and he will now get them.
… You also get the “Just call up Notre Dame!” or “You know Nebraska would come back!” comments with realignment. That’s just part of it.
… Seriously, though, keep your bullshit meter up to date and in working order. You will probably be sifting through a lot of it over the coming months.
… My best guess on Texas Tech’s long-term future involves the Pac-12, a Big 12 3.0 with two to four additions or a newly-formed league that results from some kind of merger between the Big 12 and Pac-12 or ACC. This will largely be determined by the media rightsholders at this point. What does FOX, NBC, Discovery/WarnerMedia, Amazon, Hulu, Netflix, etc. want to do here because they will ultimately decide how it all plays out.
... What programs should the Big 12 add? That conversation should start with Cincinnati and then either BYU or UCF. Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU have an obvious interest in boxing Houston out of a Big 12 invite but if a rightsholder wants that market, the league would have to strongly look at adding the Cougars. The other options are South Florida, Memphis, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Tulane, Navy and SMU. The Mustangs face the same issues as Houston and would face similar opposition.
… Finally, it could take months before the post-2025 endgame is clear, and people involved are going to be very cautious about saying anything to anyone for fear of it hurting their institution’s future prospects.
