A Win Would be Nice:
In November or December, I think every one of us would've signed up for 5-2 going into the Big 12/SEC weekend. Maybe not after the 4-0 start, but here we are... Starting out 3-1 on the road easily offsets the home game we dropped to Iowa State.
Interestingly, Kenpom lists us having played the easiest conference schedule to date. That's a little concerning, especially since I don't think it accounts for us playing (1) WVU in early January which meant easier travel for us and no students in town; (2) K-State without Dean Wade and a hobbled Stokes, (3) UT without students or Jericho Sims, (4) Iowa State without Lard, and (5) Baylor without Clarke. Kenpom has K-State having played the toughest Big 12 SOS to date.
What we've done well through 6 conference games:
Force turnovers: Second highest percentage in the conference in terms of forcing turnovers.
Block Shots: Highest percentage (by a yuge margin) of blocked shots.
Force opponents to shoot poorly: We give up second lowest FG% on 3-point shots, and third lowest on 2-point shots: Our conference opponents' effective FG% is lowest in the conference by a pretty big margin.
Get to the free throw line: Second highest free throw rate.
Shoot free throws: Second highest free throw percentage.
What we've done poorly through 6 conference games:
Lack of offensive rebounding: Lowest % of offensive rebounds in the conference. Iowa State is just above us, but then there is a wide gap before you get to Kansas.
Allowing offensive rebounds: We give up the second highest % of offensive rebounds.
Shooting 3s: We're essentially tied with OU for second worst 3-point shooting %.
Turnovers: Third worst in % of possessions that end in a turnover.
Mooney:
Through 6 games, Culver has the highest usage rate of anyone in the conference. We're running the offense through him plenty. But good teams in this conference can game plan around a special talent like Culver. Moretti has the 5th highest Offensive Rating in the conference through 6 games. But he's not really the type of guy that can take over a game, particularly if other teams are conscious of him too (they are).
Mooney is more than capable of taking over games with the attention that Culver & Morro are getting. To me, he's the X factor in tough games like the one tonight. I'm not sure he even made it to the Ferrell Center in Waco. It's absurd to say that our success comes down to solely him, because Kyler and B Fran can shoulder some of this responsibility as well, but this is why us and a ton of other major programs wanted Mooney. He's a bad m'fer.
I still have a lot of confidence in Mooney and predict he wins us some big games down the stretch.
Shot Disparity:
From a combination of turning the ball over too much, giving up too many offensive rebounds, not getting offensive rebounds ourselves, and our somewhat sneaky ability to get to the line quite a bit, we're facing a huge disparity in shot attempts compared to our opponents.
Through 6 conference games, we've shot 33 less three pointers than our opponents. That's perfectly fine in a vacuum but we're not making up for it in free throw attempts (5 more than opponents) and 2-point shots (4 more than opponents).
At some point, particularly in this conference, it doesn't really matter how well you defend people when they are getting, on average, 4-5 more shots than you are per game. What's scary is how poorly Big 12 opponents have shot from 3 against us. Iowa State arguably had the worst shooting night of the season against us...
Random:
Not counting TCU (who we are 9-3 against in Big 12 play), our current 6-2 mark against K-State is as good of an 8-game span that I can find against a Big 12 opponent.
We're going for four straight wins against K-State tonight, which is pretty significant for Tech since joining the Big 12. We beat TCU four straight from 2013-2014; K-State four straight from 2005-2008; and Baylor 6 straight from the 2003 Conf. Tourney to 2008.
We are 13-53 on the road against current or former Big 12 North opponents.
K-State is the only current or former Big 12 North school that we've beaten consecutively on the road (2005 & 2007).
In November or December, I think every one of us would've signed up for 5-2 going into the Big 12/SEC weekend. Maybe not after the 4-0 start, but here we are... Starting out 3-1 on the road easily offsets the home game we dropped to Iowa State.
Interestingly, Kenpom lists us having played the easiest conference schedule to date. That's a little concerning, especially since I don't think it accounts for us playing (1) WVU in early January which meant easier travel for us and no students in town; (2) K-State without Dean Wade and a hobbled Stokes, (3) UT without students or Jericho Sims, (4) Iowa State without Lard, and (5) Baylor without Clarke. Kenpom has K-State having played the toughest Big 12 SOS to date.
What we've done well through 6 conference games:
Force turnovers: Second highest percentage in the conference in terms of forcing turnovers.
Block Shots: Highest percentage (by a yuge margin) of blocked shots.
Force opponents to shoot poorly: We give up second lowest FG% on 3-point shots, and third lowest on 2-point shots: Our conference opponents' effective FG% is lowest in the conference by a pretty big margin.
Get to the free throw line: Second highest free throw rate.
Shoot free throws: Second highest free throw percentage.
What we've done poorly through 6 conference games:
Lack of offensive rebounding: Lowest % of offensive rebounds in the conference. Iowa State is just above us, but then there is a wide gap before you get to Kansas.
Allowing offensive rebounds: We give up the second highest % of offensive rebounds.
Shooting 3s: We're essentially tied with OU for second worst 3-point shooting %.
Turnovers: Third worst in % of possessions that end in a turnover.
Mooney:
Through 6 games, Culver has the highest usage rate of anyone in the conference. We're running the offense through him plenty. But good teams in this conference can game plan around a special talent like Culver. Moretti has the 5th highest Offensive Rating in the conference through 6 games. But he's not really the type of guy that can take over a game, particularly if other teams are conscious of him too (they are).
Mooney is more than capable of taking over games with the attention that Culver & Morro are getting. To me, he's the X factor in tough games like the one tonight. I'm not sure he even made it to the Ferrell Center in Waco. It's absurd to say that our success comes down to solely him, because Kyler and B Fran can shoulder some of this responsibility as well, but this is why us and a ton of other major programs wanted Mooney. He's a bad m'fer.
I still have a lot of confidence in Mooney and predict he wins us some big games down the stretch.
Shot Disparity:
From a combination of turning the ball over too much, giving up too many offensive rebounds, not getting offensive rebounds ourselves, and our somewhat sneaky ability to get to the line quite a bit, we're facing a huge disparity in shot attempts compared to our opponents.
Through 6 conference games, we've shot 33 less three pointers than our opponents. That's perfectly fine in a vacuum but we're not making up for it in free throw attempts (5 more than opponents) and 2-point shots (4 more than opponents).
At some point, particularly in this conference, it doesn't really matter how well you defend people when they are getting, on average, 4-5 more shots than you are per game. What's scary is how poorly Big 12 opponents have shot from 3 against us. Iowa State arguably had the worst shooting night of the season against us...
Random:
Not counting TCU (who we are 9-3 against in Big 12 play), our current 6-2 mark against K-State is as good of an 8-game span that I can find against a Big 12 opponent.
We're going for four straight wins against K-State tonight, which is pretty significant for Tech since joining the Big 12. We beat TCU four straight from 2013-2014; K-State four straight from 2005-2008; and Baylor 6 straight from the 2003 Conf. Tourney to 2008.
We are 13-53 on the road against current or former Big 12 North opponents.
K-State is the only current or former Big 12 North school that we've beaten consecutively on the road (2005 & 2007).
