Prediction time for the Big 12 Track and Field Championships

RRTracklover · May 10, 2018

The Big 12 T&F Championships start tomorrow morning. I waited to do my predictions until I could see the heat sheets, since there are often a few surprise omissions from the conference entries, but there were only a few surprises this year. So, let's get started:

MEN

I really think the men's championship is Tech's to lose. I tried to be very, very conservative in my predictions, but I still see Tech beating UT by around 10-15 points. Now 10 points is not very much -- it would only take an injury to a key point-scorer to change that really fast. BUT, I think Tech will score in the 150-160 point range, with UT following with 140-150 points. UT won the men's championship last year with 153.5 points, with Kansas in 2nd with 143 pts and Tech in 3rd with 110.

It looks like Tech and UT are the teams to beat. Kansas State, Kansas, TCU and Baylor look like they will score in the 82-97 point range, in that approximate order. Okie State and Iowa State look like they can score around 60-75 points and OU looks like the doormat this year with 40-45 points -- if the Sooner break 50 points, it will be a good meet for them.

For those of you who will follow the meet at home or from the stands, there are 8 keys to watch for that will indicate Tech will win the men's championship:

If Tech scores 48 or more points in the sprints -- 100, 200, 400, 4x100, and 4x400 .Tech is really loaded in the sprints this year. There is a good chance that Tech sweeps both relays this year and I can never remember that happening in Tech's tenure in the Big 12.
If Tech can go 1-2 in the 800 with Vincent Crisp and Charles Jones
If Tech can somehow scrape up even 1 point in the distance races -- 1500, 5K, 10K, and steeplechase -- there is a chance that someone like Todd Mickey could slip in for a point or two in the 1500, for instance
If Tech get 22 or more points in the hurdles -- Darien Tennon in both 110H and 400H; Norman Grimes in the 400H and Ardran Carr slipping in for a point like he did last year in the 400H. I do see that Dorian Williams is not entered in the 110H, but he has been injured since the 2nd meet of the year. Still, if healthy he could have added some points in the 110H
If Trey Culver wins the HJ -- this might look like a given, but the Big 12 has 2 superstar freshmen jumpers who have jumped higher than Trey this year outdoors. Trey can certainly beat them, but he will need to have a good meet to do so.
If Tech scores 25 or more points in the LJ/TJ -- Charles Brown and Odaine Lewis have been jumping superbly all year. It would be good to see Justin Hall have a good meet. I also see that Dalton Rigdon got to make the trip.
If Tech scores 17 or more points in the throws -- SP, DT and JT (we don't have a male entry in the hammer throw). It would be particularly good to see Werner Bouwer break out of his funk in the javelin.
If Tech scores 7 or more points in the decathlon -- weird situation that our 3 decathletes (Clark Griffith, Erin Lopez, and Colten Gayle) have not competed in a single decathlon this year, but all three are entered in a weak field. This could be a big points scorer if Tech can somehow get all three into the top-8.

If Tech achieves all 8 keys, I can practically guarantee a Red Raider team victory. But, Tech could only hit on 5 of the 8 and still have a high likelihood of winning. If we only hit on 2-3 of these keys, look for the Red Raiders to lose the championship. BUT, I really think the good guys win it this weekend!

WOMEN

This is a good and YOUNG women's Red Raider team. I don't think they can challenge for the team championship yet, but 3rd is certainly within reach. UT looks like the top of the class, capable of scoring 140-150 points. Kansas State looks like the best bet to get 2nd with 120-130 points. Then, the next 4 teams are pretty close together, with Tech, Baylor, Kansas and OU all grouped around 90-105 and Tech more than likely at the top of this group. Iowa State comes in around 80-85 points; WVU traveling all the way from Morgantown to score 40-50 points; and TCU looking like the cellar-dweller with 10-15 points.

So how can Tech break 100 points (we only scored 64 for 6th place last year) and possibly challenge for 2nd?

Score more than 32 points in the sprints (100, 200, 400, 4x100 and 4x400) - watch for Sara Limp to have a big meet and freshman Kaylor Harris is destined for greatness at Tech and I would love to see this championship be her first great collegiate track meet
Just like the men, it will be a bonus if the Tech women can somehow score a point in the distance races -- 1500, 5K, 10K, steeplechase and throw in the 800.
Score 10 or more points in the hurdles -- Kaylee Hinton, Kaylor Harris and Faith Roberson could lead the way. G'Auna Edwards is being held out of the heptathlon, betting that this will help her make the finals in the open 100H.
Tech is so stinkin' strong in the jumps (except for the vault) -- the Red Raiders could well score 40 or more points in the jumps. Paetyn Revell, Chelsey Cole, Brianna Johnson, Kaylee Hinton, G'Auna Edwards, Ivy Walker, along with Zarreia Willis and Cyre Virgo in the HJ
Score 11 or more points in the heptathlon with Kaylee Hinton and Rose Njoku -- Tech will be dependent on Kaylee for a lot of points over the whole weekend.
Tech scores 15 or more points in the throws -- Crystal Onwukaife in the SP, Seasons Usual and Happiness Okeke in the discus and Alexandria Johnson in the Hammer. I see that Dorleta Armendariz-Lasa is not entered in the hammer - a bit of a surprise.
It would be a huge boost for this team if the 4x100 could win (with 2 freshmen on the relay) -- they are ranked 2nd. Also, see if the 4x400 can place 3rd or higher.

This team is not far away from competing for the conference crown. This year, though, the goal will be to get 3rd or even 2nd -- that would make for an excellent championship meet.

webredraider · May 10, 2018