I was so high on Tech going into the season, so much higher than any non-Tech person that I respect who evaluates college football teams, that through 3 games, I don't think I need to adjust my expectations for this team too much. I noticed that Bill Connelly's revised his SP+ rankings to have Tech in the top 50 (and he's including Tech to win the conference in his bold predictions feature) -- that seems about right for what I (and most of you) thought going into the season. We're about a top 40ish team; unfortunately, the margin between 2nd and 9th in this league is very tight.
I'm a little worried about our offense, but that feels weird to say when we're averaging over 7 yards per play, which leads the conference. We also lead the conference in % of plays that go 20+ and 50+ yards (we are 7th in % of plays that go 10+ yards). This weekend will a big test though. UT has some really good pass rushers and have the beef up front to stop us from running the ball with light'ish boxes. Shough will probably need to make a lot of plays with his feet.
The defense has been outstanding. We've allowed 6 TDs on 28 possessions to FBS opponents. Three of those TDs (the 2 v. UH and the long pass to the RB v. FIU) were busted coverages of some sort. Literally no one was defending the pass that resulted in a TD. It would be nice to eliminate those plays because the defense has been really good (see below):
>4th in the conference yards per play allowed (behind ISU / BU / KSU), with a big gap between us and 5th place OSU.
>3rd in the conference in % of possessions where we forced a TO (and the defense has scored 2 TDs).
>PFF has Tech with the highest graded defense overall, including the highest graded run defense and secondary.
This weekend will be a big test for our defense. I think we're doing things a little differently schematically than in the past, and UT will have some tape on it to prepare (whereas, our first opponents had very little to work with). Bijan Robinson is the real deal and is flat out scary. Luckily, this is as good of a Tech team that I can recall when it comes to having the bodies up front to stop the run. Still, I expect UT / Bijan to have quite a bit of success running the ball. Hopefully, it doesn't lead to big passing plays or long runs. We can live with keeping Bijan and company in front of us.
Another thing that will be interesting to watch is whether Patterson continues to rush 6+ guys on 3rd and medium. We do it close to every time in that situation, and it's been pretty dang effective v. UH / SFA / FIU. As mentioned above, the passing TDs we've allowed have been blown coverages. I really haven't seen our secondary lose on a contested pass downfield. UT's receivers will give our guys a real test, though.
Shout out to Rayshad Williams. That guy is good. He plays a lot and is very physical in the quick game stuff. Another underrated guy is Bouyer-Randle. He's so versatile. Not many guys can cover Tight Ends 40+ yards downfield and also be a consistent threat to rush the passer.
18 guys on defense have played 25% or more of the snaps.
>5 are super seniors
>10/18 are transfers
>8/18 are HS signees - Riko, Fields, Bradford, Hutchings, Frye, Mbanasor, Dadrion Taylor, Blidi
13 guys on offense have played 25% or more of the snaps
>2 are super seniors
>6 are transfers
>7 are HS signees (Tharp is the only true freshman)
I have Tech's EPA (expected points added) per play margin as 3rd in the country (behind Baylor, and ahead of Georgia). Both our offense and defense are in the top 15 nationally in success rate. We've really dominated large portions of the games we've played in, and I understand why Bill Connelly's this-season-only rankings have Tech in the top 5 -- we have played pretty dang good through 3 games.
Tech is currently a 10 point underdog next week. I can't help but flashback to last year and a get a good hearty chuckle at Tech getting like 20 points to these guys in Lubbock. One of the worst lines involving Tech that I've seen. This one seems about right, I guess.
Since 2014, Tech has played 11 games on the road against former Big 12 South teams. Tech's been a double digit underdog in all of those games except the 3 in Austin. Tech won there in 2015 as a 2-point underdog and in 2017 as a 7.5-point underdog.
I expect Tech will be favored in only 2 more games the rest of the season -- @Kansas and Kansas State at home. @BU and a couple of our home games could be pretty close to a pick'em though.
This is Big 12 team's Net TD %, which = (% of possessions that your offense scores a TD) - (% of possessions that the defense has allowed a TD).
BU +40%
UT +27.8%
KSU +27.6%
TCU +27.6%
OU +24%
Tech +20.6%
WVU +16.9%
ISU +11.8%
OSU +9.8%
KU -23.3%
5 Most Important Players (this was tough):
(1) Tyler Shough
(2) Colin Schooler
(3) Ezukanma
(4) Reggie Pearson
(5) Demarcus Fields
I'm a little worried about our offense, but that feels weird to say when we're averaging over 7 yards per play, which leads the conference. We also lead the conference in % of plays that go 20+ and 50+ yards (we are 7th in % of plays that go 10+ yards). This weekend will a big test though. UT has some really good pass rushers and have the beef up front to stop us from running the ball with light'ish boxes. Shough will probably need to make a lot of plays with his feet.
The defense has been outstanding. We've allowed 6 TDs on 28 possessions to FBS opponents. Three of those TDs (the 2 v. UH and the long pass to the RB v. FIU) were busted coverages of some sort. Literally no one was defending the pass that resulted in a TD. It would be nice to eliminate those plays because the defense has been really good (see below):
>4th in the conference yards per play allowed (behind ISU / BU / KSU), with a big gap between us and 5th place OSU.
>3rd in the conference in % of possessions where we forced a TO (and the defense has scored 2 TDs).
>PFF has Tech with the highest graded defense overall, including the highest graded run defense and secondary.
This weekend will be a big test for our defense. I think we're doing things a little differently schematically than in the past, and UT will have some tape on it to prepare (whereas, our first opponents had very little to work with). Bijan Robinson is the real deal and is flat out scary. Luckily, this is as good of a Tech team that I can recall when it comes to having the bodies up front to stop the run. Still, I expect UT / Bijan to have quite a bit of success running the ball. Hopefully, it doesn't lead to big passing plays or long runs. We can live with keeping Bijan and company in front of us.
Another thing that will be interesting to watch is whether Patterson continues to rush 6+ guys on 3rd and medium. We do it close to every time in that situation, and it's been pretty dang effective v. UH / SFA / FIU. As mentioned above, the passing TDs we've allowed have been blown coverages. I really haven't seen our secondary lose on a contested pass downfield. UT's receivers will give our guys a real test, though.
Shout out to Rayshad Williams. That guy is good. He plays a lot and is very physical in the quick game stuff. Another underrated guy is Bouyer-Randle. He's so versatile. Not many guys can cover Tight Ends 40+ yards downfield and also be a consistent threat to rush the passer.
18 guys on defense have played 25% or more of the snaps.
>5 are super seniors
>10/18 are transfers
>8/18 are HS signees - Riko, Fields, Bradford, Hutchings, Frye, Mbanasor, Dadrion Taylor, Blidi
13 guys on offense have played 25% or more of the snaps
>2 are super seniors
>6 are transfers
>7 are HS signees (Tharp is the only true freshman)
I have Tech's EPA (expected points added) per play margin as 3rd in the country (behind Baylor, and ahead of Georgia). Both our offense and defense are in the top 15 nationally in success rate. We've really dominated large portions of the games we've played in, and I understand why Bill Connelly's this-season-only rankings have Tech in the top 5 -- we have played pretty dang good through 3 games.
Tech is currently a 10 point underdog next week. I can't help but flashback to last year and a get a good hearty chuckle at Tech getting like 20 points to these guys in Lubbock. One of the worst lines involving Tech that I've seen. This one seems about right, I guess.
Since 2014, Tech has played 11 games on the road against former Big 12 South teams. Tech's been a double digit underdog in all of those games except the 3 in Austin. Tech won there in 2015 as a 2-point underdog and in 2017 as a 7.5-point underdog.
I expect Tech will be favored in only 2 more games the rest of the season -- @Kansas and Kansas State at home. @BU and a couple of our home games could be pretty close to a pick'em though.
This is Big 12 team's Net TD %, which = (% of possessions that your offense scores a TD) - (% of possessions that the defense has allowed a TD).
BU +40%
UT +27.8%
KSU +27.6%
TCU +27.6%
OU +24%
Tech +20.6%
WVU +16.9%
ISU +11.8%
OSU +9.8%
KU -23.3%
5 Most Important Players (this was tough):
(1) Tyler Shough
(2) Colin Schooler
(3) Ezukanma
(4) Reggie Pearson
(5) Demarcus Fields
