This why the NET rating is deceptive for Tech. Just because we are #54 doesn't mean we should automatically be in.
Bracketology 2023: The Lock and Bubble Picture With 2 1⁄2 Weeks Until Selection Sunday
Story by ChrisDobbertean • Yesterday 2:00 PMOn Tuesday’s edition of College Basketball Coast to Coast, T.J. Rives and I talked quite about the Selection Committee’s bracket preview and the state of the bubble. You may want to listen to the podcast as an accompaniment to this breakdown.
If you thought Texas Tech was out of the at-large hunt, things have changed in the past three weeks.© Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
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Now onto the lock and bubble breakdown...
Acknowledgements: NET rankings and records are accurate as of Wednesday, February 22, 2023 and reflect only games against Division I teams. Selection Sheet info is from WarrenNolan.com.
Before I get into the details of where each conference stands in terms of the bubble heading into the weekend, a quick reminder of how this all works.
- As has been the case since 2011, the 2023 NCAA Tournament will feature 68 teams: 32 conference tournament winners who will claim automatic bids and 36 teams the Selection Committee will select at-large.
- Of the 32 auto bids, it’s looking like 23 of those will come from conferences that are likely to earn one bid.
- Combine the 9 likely multi-bid auto bid holders with the 36 at-large teams, and you’re left with 45 spots that are up for grabs. (Of course, if the power conference tournaments go haywire like they did in 2021, this number will decline as Selection Sunday gets closer.)
So, How Many of the 45 Spots Remain Open on February 22nd?
Based on the designations below:- 27 teams are currently locks.
- 10 teams are near-locks.
- That’s 37 of 45 spots gone, leaving just 8 for the bubble. If you subtract the 1 team that is in good shape with 17 days to go, that number drops to 7.
But What Exactly Is a “Lock” With 21⁄2 Weeks to Play?
While there is an element of “you know it when you see it” involved here, I consider a power conference team a lock based on simple math. Over the past few weeks, I’ve used Kansas as my example. Today, I’m switching to Creighton, who has recovered from an injury-driven midseason swoon to become a lock.- Creighton is currently 18-10.
- The Bluejays have 3 regular-season games and a minimum of 1 conference tournament game remaining.
- Assuming each and every single one of these 4 remaining games is a loss, Creighton’s Selection Sunday record would be 18-14.
- Considering that the most losses for an at-large team is 15—shared by a trio of recent 19-15 SEC squads (2017 Vanderbilt, 2018 Alabama, and 2019 Florida)—and that Creighton’s metrics are likely to still be very good, even if Georgetown and DePaul rank among their final three opponents, I would still expect the Bluejays to be in the field even after losing streak that would fly in the face of all logic, common sense, and recent performances.
- In other words, if a power conference team can go on a nonsensical losing streak over the final five weeks and while being mathematically able to get to 18-14 or 19-15 (when we get to the final week), it will be classified as a “lock” or “near lock” following an examination of its selection sheet and metrics.
- As the days fall away, I’ll update the math, but it will still apply the same general principles.
