The predictions at the end of these posts are based strictly on public wager percentages and how sports books are reacting to same. The last two years, these posts have gone 9-6 against the spread, and 9-6 against the over/under.
3,768 total bets tracked @ 5dimes.
55% of spread tickets are on Tech, but 58% of $ money bet on the spread is backing Ole Miss.
81% of moneyline bets are on Ole Miss, but 56% of the $ placed on the ML is backing Tech.
75% of tickets are on the over, but the $ bet on the total is 50/50.
Majority of money all summer was coming in on Tech. Last few days, Ole Miss started receiving a ton of $, likely from public bettors. Pinnacle opened at pick'em back in June, but recently it ticked up to Tech -2.5. Similarly, the money line recently moved about 15 percentage points in Tech's favor , despite 4/5ths of money line wagers being placed on Ole Miss.
I lean Tech here, and think the books and/or sharps will have a small Tech position on both the spread and moneyline. I will bet the under if I can find 68 or better.
Prediction:
Tech 33
Ole Miss 30
Miscellaneous:
Texas is the most lopsided bet game of the first week and are receiving >80% of spread bets & $ bet on the spread. Maryland +14 is a definite play.
Michigan is receiving a ton of money against Notre Dame. FWIW, Notre Dame is the only team in the country that returns more defensive production than Tech.
I think defenses are catching up schematically to the spread and offenses are doing a lot more hurrying up and waiting, as opposed to hurrying up and snapping it. Average points scored last year was 55.86, which is the lowest since 2011. There's been 4 straight years of more unders than overs in CFB.
The lower the total, and the higher the point spread, the better chance the underdog will cover. With a total below 47 and a line above +7, underdogs are 220-135 ATS since 2005.
Big 12 ATS records:
Gundy 92-71 ATS. (3rd best active coach in terms of units won)
Matt Campbell 45-28-2 ATS. (5th best active).
Snyder 71-54-1 ATS (8th best)
Rhule 39-24 ATS (12th).
Patterson 90-75-1 (16th)
Herman 23-16 (29th).
Kliff 34-28-1 ATS. (46th)
David Beaty 13-23 ATS (5th worst)
Dana 37-52-1 ATS (2nd worst)
3,768 total bets tracked @ 5dimes.
55% of spread tickets are on Tech, but 58% of $ money bet on the spread is backing Ole Miss.
81% of moneyline bets are on Ole Miss, but 56% of the $ placed on the ML is backing Tech.
75% of tickets are on the over, but the $ bet on the total is 50/50.
Majority of money all summer was coming in on Tech. Last few days, Ole Miss started receiving a ton of $, likely from public bettors. Pinnacle opened at pick'em back in June, but recently it ticked up to Tech -2.5. Similarly, the money line recently moved about 15 percentage points in Tech's favor , despite 4/5ths of money line wagers being placed on Ole Miss.
I lean Tech here, and think the books and/or sharps will have a small Tech position on both the spread and moneyline. I will bet the under if I can find 68 or better.
Prediction:
Tech 33
Ole Miss 30
Miscellaneous:
Texas is the most lopsided bet game of the first week and are receiving >80% of spread bets & $ bet on the spread. Maryland +14 is a definite play.
Michigan is receiving a ton of money against Notre Dame. FWIW, Notre Dame is the only team in the country that returns more defensive production than Tech.
I think defenses are catching up schematically to the spread and offenses are doing a lot more hurrying up and waiting, as opposed to hurrying up and snapping it. Average points scored last year was 55.86, which is the lowest since 2011. There's been 4 straight years of more unders than overs in CFB.
The lower the total, and the higher the point spread, the better chance the underdog will cover. With a total below 47 and a line above +7, underdogs are 220-135 ATS since 2005.
Big 12 ATS records:
Gundy 92-71 ATS. (3rd best active coach in terms of units won)
Matt Campbell 45-28-2 ATS. (5th best active).
Snyder 71-54-1 ATS (8th best)
Rhule 39-24 ATS (12th).
Patterson 90-75-1 (16th)
Herman 23-16 (29th).
Kliff 34-28-1 ATS. (46th)
David Beaty 13-23 ATS (5th worst)
Dana 37-52-1 ATS (2nd worst)
