I said this in Deciphering Patterson on Tuesday, but I am, for the first time in a while, excited about a Texas Tech Football game. It doesn't have anything to do with me believing that Tech is going to win, but more just with just enjoying the football I saw against West Virginia. It wasn't perfect, I outlined my complaints in two lengthy pieces of writing on this very website, but there weren't any stupid mistakes made and they fought like hell until the end. Maybe that makes the difference against this OU team, maybe it doesn't, but if they play that same way then the Red Raiders have a chance.
My Pick
Texas Tech 31 Oklahoma 42
I really do think Texas Tech has a chance here, but they are underdogs for a reason. I don't know if they are 15 points worse than OU, but I don't really have a solid argument against the spread. I see this game playing out a lot like the UT (minus the Red Raider collapse), where it's like a basketball game, each team has a run or two in them, it just depends on who is more effective when playing well. It goes without saying, but a lot of this game hinges on quarterback play, which one can play more efficient, create explosive plays, without making the catastrophic mistake. I don't really know how to call that one, which is why I'm having trouble picking this game. Rattler has a little early Mahomes in him where he will pass up open guys underneath looking for the home run all the time... sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Colombi has shown he can be efficient, but can he be great? I'm not sure, if he can, Tech has a chance.
Either way, I don't think Oklahoma can ever really pull away, but Tech can't overtake them either. OU tacks a cheap one on at the end to make it look worse than it is.
Mailbag
jacketgrad2001 asked...
Do you: 1) Make Spencer beat you deep with Mims by loading up in the box; or 2) Play a cover 2, give up the underneath throws, while trying to stop Pledger?
On the offensive side -
Ehlinger had 4 rushing TD's against OU (2 in OT, and 2 in the 2Q), collecting 112 yards. It stands to reason that this would be the week to open the playbook for Columbi and break out the RPO's, no?
Rattler and Mims are going to beat Tech deep regardless, so I'm playing an aggressive/physical cover two and making sure tackles. I think you can frustrate Rattler and these receivers that way.
Tech is going to run RPOs, but that has little to do with the QB run game. I would be surprised to see any designed runs for Colombi, besides the occasional keep on a zone read, but he is going to create some plays with his legs. Don't expect to see anything, offensively, that we haven't seen, that's not really Yost's thing.
ryane836 asked...
What is the formula for us winning? The only way I really see it is a shortened game with long, sustained drives, a couple of Rattler picks/fumbles, and maybe a D/ST touchdown.
The formula is similar to what you described, I don't think Tech necessarily has to shorten the game, they just have to finish drives with points, preferably touchdowns, and not go on long scoreless droughts like they've been prone to do. Rattler mistakes and D/ST scores will absolutely help, but I think you can win straight up.
Seems like Rattler would prefer to be out of the pocket. A lot of his best throws in that game were when he rolled out and found new passing lanes. Is that by design or is he just good at improvising? Also, as good as he is, it seems like Rattler has a little Favre in him in that he gambles A LOT with his downfield throws. It seems like our Safeties and DBs will have some opportunities in this game, Thoughts?
He absolutely prefers to leave the pocket, and I don't think a lot of it is designed or wanted by Riley. He's prone to leaving clean pockets only to run into the rush or just cut his field in half. With that being said, he can move and has a cannon, so he absolutely could be a monster out of the pocket, he's just not there yet.
And yeah, he will throw some 50/50 balls, there will be opportunities for our DBs. Just gotta capitalize.
BAlf17 asked...
Will we have Thompson and White 100% to split carries with Brooks? Is the run game the key to Tech possibly winning this game?
It's impossible to give a sure fire answer on Thompson and White, due to COVID and all that, but I would be pretty surprised if they both didn't at least give it a go, but there is no doubt that Brooks will be asked to do a lot of what he did against WVU.
The running game is a key for Tech, not because Tech needs to rush for 250 yards to win, but they do need to be able run effective play action, so the run game needs to be a threat.
Rolf C asked...
True or false: Raiders will score at least 4 touchdowns in this game.
True... 4 or 5
BrittTTU asked...
How would you attack the OU defense?
How would you defend the OU offense?
If you could make Lincoln Riley dress up in any costume for the sideline on what would it be and why?
I would attack the OU's defense with what I think Tech's best group, the receivers, I would try to get it into their hands all over the field. Screens, yes screens, deep shots, over the middle, quick game, jet sweeps, everything to get OU worried abut the skill in that group. Tech is going to need to run the ball well, but come out swinging. Make them sweat from the opening kick.
Defensively, I would make Rattler be patient and drive down the field. Keep him in the pocket, play cover 2 and 4, and make him lead a sustained drive. He will do it some, but he'll get impatient and make mistakes too.
I would make Lincoln dress up as Yost because I think it would be funny and maybe that would not challenge Tech downfield as much.
SouthForkRaider23 asked...
Will we see a return to the “strange things happen in Lubbock/night game” this weekend? Full moon, blue moon on Halloween seems like it’s telling us yes. Name one Tech player we haven’t yet really heard from that could emerge in said “strange things happen in night games theme”.
Man, I really hope so. Weird night games in Lubbock... where we win/give an opponent hell, is one of my favorite things about being a Red Raider. The lack of fans is a blow to that, but like you said, a lot going in our favor too. I'm going to say yes.
Travis Koontz... he scores twice or something like that.
redstormrising! asked...
I don't feel good about this game at all. Give me one or two reasonable paths (outside of OU turning the ball over a bunch) for Tech to come out with the dubya?
1) Rattler is just off, like the second half against KState, a lot of the Texas game, and several points against TCU. He keeps trying to force things downfield, his receivers don't bail him out, and Tech forces a lot of 3/4/5 and out type drives.
2) The Tech offense produces long, sustained drives over and over and over, scores touchdowns, and the OU offense feels the pressure. Again, Rattler/Riley press and put their defense in bad positions.
Defensive Matchup to Watch
Texas Tech DBs vs Oklahoma Receivers
This isn't the matchup to watch because the Tech DBs have to win outright, they just cannot be embarrassed. Rattler is going to give this DB unit plenty of chances because he trusts his receivers, nearly, to a fault. Unfortunately, Texas Tech DBs are not really known for their ball hawking skills, but they have shown a glimmer of improvement recently. I want to see the Tech defensive backfield be physical with this group of OU receivers (I'll take some penalties), have some confidence about them, and not let them get anything easy. If they are up to the challenge, this will be a game. Texas Tech DBs vs Oklahoma Receivers
Offensive Matchup to Watch
Texas Tech Offensive Line vs Oklahoma Front Seven
Texas Tech is going to have to be able to run the ball effectively, but it's more than that, the Tech offensive line needs to help Colombi out as much as possible. Sure, Colombi can run, but that needs to be more of a last resort than a first read. Several times last week, the O Line was beaten so badly that Colombi didn't even have a chance to use his legs, that cannot happen regularly on Saturday. This OU defense will try to mix it up some, and the offensive line needs to be able to sort it out, and beat it. I haven't even mentioned the state of the running back room, health wise, the offensive line needs win more than it loses... simple as that. They need to help that group as much as they do the QB. They have the ability, they just have to put it all together, something that has been rare so far this season. Texas Tech Offensive Line vs Oklahoma Front Seven
My Pick
Texas Tech 31 Oklahoma 42
Either way, I don't think Oklahoma can ever really pull away, but Tech can't overtake them either. OU tacks a cheap one on at the end to make it look worse than it is.
Mailbag
Do you: 1) Make Spencer beat you deep with Mims by loading up in the box; or 2) Play a cover 2, give up the underneath throws, while trying to stop Pledger?
On the offensive side -
Ehlinger had 4 rushing TD's against OU (2 in OT, and 2 in the 2Q), collecting 112 yards. It stands to reason that this would be the week to open the playbook for Columbi and break out the RPO's, no?
Rattler and Mims are going to beat Tech deep regardless, so I'm playing an aggressive/physical cover two and making sure tackles. I think you can frustrate Rattler and these receivers that way.
Tech is going to run RPOs, but that has little to do with the QB run game. I would be surprised to see any designed runs for Colombi, besides the occasional keep on a zone read, but he is going to create some plays with his legs. Don't expect to see anything, offensively, that we haven't seen, that's not really Yost's thing.
ryane836 asked...
What is the formula for us winning? The only way I really see it is a shortened game with long, sustained drives, a couple of Rattler picks/fumbles, and maybe a D/ST touchdown.
The formula is similar to what you described, I don't think Tech necessarily has to shorten the game, they just have to finish drives with points, preferably touchdowns, and not go on long scoreless droughts like they've been prone to do. Rattler mistakes and D/ST scores will absolutely help, but I think you can win straight up.
TTUGuy33 asked... Seems like Rattler would prefer to be out of the pocket. A lot of his best throws in that game were when he rolled out and found new passing lanes. Is that by design or is he just good at improvising? Also, as good as he is, it seems like Rattler has a little Favre in him in that he gambles A LOT with his downfield throws. It seems like our Safeties and DBs will have some opportunities in this game, Thoughts?
He absolutely prefers to leave the pocket, and I don't think a lot of it is designed or wanted by Riley. He's prone to leaving clean pockets only to run into the rush or just cut his field in half. With that being said, he can move and has a cannon, so he absolutely could be a monster out of the pocket, he's just not there yet.
And yeah, he will throw some 50/50 balls, there will be opportunities for our DBs. Just gotta capitalize.
BAlf17 asked...
Will we have Thompson and White 100% to split carries with Brooks? Is the run game the key to Tech possibly winning this game?
It's impossible to give a sure fire answer on Thompson and White, due to COVID and all that, but I would be pretty surprised if they both didn't at least give it a go, but there is no doubt that Brooks will be asked to do a lot of what he did against WVU.
The running game is a key for Tech, not because Tech needs to rush for 250 yards to win, but they do need to be able run effective play action, so the run game needs to be a threat.
Rolf C asked...
True or false: Raiders will score at least 4 touchdowns in this game.
True... 4 or 5
BrittTTU asked...
How would you attack the OU defense?
How would you defend the OU offense?
If you could make Lincoln Riley dress up in any costume for the sideline on what would it be and why?
I would attack the OU's defense with what I think Tech's best group, the receivers, I would try to get it into their hands all over the field. Screens, yes screens, deep shots, over the middle, quick game, jet sweeps, everything to get OU worried abut the skill in that group. Tech is going to need to run the ball well, but come out swinging. Make them sweat from the opening kick.
Defensively, I would make Rattler be patient and drive down the field. Keep him in the pocket, play cover 2 and 4, and make him lead a sustained drive. He will do it some, but he'll get impatient and make mistakes too.
I would make Lincoln dress up as Yost because I think it would be funny and maybe that would not challenge Tech downfield as much.
SouthForkRaider23 asked...
Will we see a return to the “strange things happen in Lubbock/night game” this weekend? Full moon, blue moon on Halloween seems like it’s telling us yes. Name one Tech player we haven’t yet really heard from that could emerge in said “strange things happen in night games theme”.
Man, I really hope so. Weird night games in Lubbock... where we win/give an opponent hell, is one of my favorite things about being a Red Raider. The lack of fans is a blow to that, but like you said, a lot going in our favor too. I'm going to say yes.
Travis Koontz... he scores twice or something like that.
redstormrising! asked...
I don't feel good about this game at all. Give me one or two reasonable paths (outside of OU turning the ball over a bunch) for Tech to come out with the dubya?
1) Rattler is just off, like the second half against KState, a lot of the Texas game, and several points against TCU. He keeps trying to force things downfield, his receivers don't bail him out, and Tech forces a lot of 3/4/5 and out type drives.
2) The Tech offense produces long, sustained drives over and over and over, scores touchdowns, and the OU offense feels the pressure. Again, Rattler/Riley press and put their defense in bad positions.
