I said all week that nothing good could come from Saturday's game against Kansas, and I stand by that, just the nature of this season and, well, the Kansas football program. My one caveat, although it doesn't fall on lines of "good/bad," is that it would give us a chance to judge the offense in a way that we could not have against UT and Texas Christian. Sonny Cumbie's unit had one path to success on Saturday, score early, score often, and make it look easy. They did that. There are still a ridiculous amount of questions swirling around this program, and rightfully so, but, for me, the "Sonny Cumbie Question" is answered, this was a successful hire. The offense will not be a reason you lose a game as we enter this crucial stretch of the season.
Nothing shows this more than the Success Rate numbers from Saturday. When Texas Tech was playing at full strength, the offense dominated Kansas. So much so that the "Total" number is still in green even with a literal zero in the 4th quarter.
Success Rate: A play is considered to by successful if it is a first down and at least 50% of yards to go are attained, or if it is 2nd down and at least 70% or yards to go are attained, or if it is a 3rd or 4th down that is converted for a first down or score
The one question I have, for the offense as a whole, moving forward is, what are we doing with quarterback? It's my understanding that the Donavan Smith cameos are not going away, if anything, they are going to get larger. Combine that with the imminent return of Tyler Shough, and Colombi not doing anything to lose the job... Wells, Cumbie, and the entire offensive staff have some tough decisions to make at the most important position on the field.
The charts below don't tell the whole story, obviously, but I do think they can be important in the decision making process. The first chart is from the Kansas game, and the second is for the season as a whole. As you can see, Donovan Smith leads his position pretty easily. It's important to note that, before this week, he wasn't really being asked to do things anywhere close to the same level as Colombi and Shough. I don't really know what the right answer is, when it comes to starter, reps splitting, and balancing present and future. I do know that it's hard to deny what my eyes tell me in terms of Donovan Smith. He looks like a future game changer, and it would be very difficult for me to keep him off the field, and that includes the guaranteed growing pains. On the other hand, I don't blame Wells for not risking his future on a freshman quarterback. I'm fascinated to see how this shakes out.
This first clip is two plays that I loved with Colombi behind center. It was obvious that Cumbie was not happy with the target distribution last week, and he made a concerted effort to fix it. This first play is a perfect example of that, this is a one read, one receiver play to get Price in space. Price goes in motion, gets the whole Kansas defense thinking about him because he is the usual jet sweep guy, and you can see the defenders on the right get set up to tackle him. The moment he doesn't get the ball, he's an after thought and Colombi avoids the rush to deliver him the ball.
This next play is the stuff of football twitter porn. It's a variation of TE or Y Leak. It's called leak because the offense is trying to get the defense to look and move in one direction, while the TE runs in the opposite direction. Cumbie puts Mannix in motion to the right, pulls a guard to the right, boots Colombi to the right, all while Tharp is working his way up the left seam. Great play and great execution, Cumbie is good at this.
This clip is three Donovan Smith plays. The first one looks like zone read out of 12 personnel with both TE's acting as H backs, this was a Lamar Jackson special. I once spent a few hours listening to Jackson's Louisville OC talk about all the unique run game concepts they ran for him, and about half were out of this formation. I need more of it with Smith. The two H backs X in the backfield to confuse the LBs, but there is no read out of the QB/RB mesh, it's just another motion to confuse the LBs. After the mesh point, White turns into a lead blocker and Smith follows him for a first down.
The next play should look familiar, it's what Cumbie killed Tech with last season with Duggan at TCU. It's power read, where the line is blocking power left for the QB, while the play side tackle leaves the DEnd for the read. If the end crashes, he hands it to Price with a full head of steam around the outside, if the end widens, he pulls it and follows the guard. Kansas actually plays this pretty well, but Price is good enough to score anyway... mostly because SaRodorick has a fantastic block.
Finally, this in an old Kansas State special, the old pop pass. This weird formation is screaming QB zone to the right with both TEs and no WRs lined up on that side. Smith then takes a few steps to make Kansas think they've guessed right, pulls up, and throws a bomb downfield to a receiver running in all the vacated space created by the formation and fake. The ball is a little under thrown (I think EZ scores if he just keeps running), but it's not a terrible throw considering the situation, field position, and not being able to step into that throw.
This offense is fun. I'm even more annoyed now that the defense in the TCU and UT games was so inept that it stole our chance to see this offense in a pressure situation. I'm not sure what is going to happen these next few weeks, but I'm hoping Sonny Cumbie's unit gets a chance to show what it can do in meaningful football games for the Red Raiders.
Nothing shows this more than the Success Rate numbers from Saturday. When Texas Tech was playing at full strength, the offense dominated Kansas. So much so that the "Total" number is still in green even with a literal zero in the 4th quarter.
Success Rate: A play is considered to by successful if it is a first down and at least 50% of yards to go are attained, or if it is 2nd down and at least 70% or yards to go are attained, or if it is a 3rd or 4th down that is converted for a first down or score
The one question I have, for the offense as a whole, moving forward is, what are we doing with quarterback? It's my understanding that the Donavan Smith cameos are not going away, if anything, they are going to get larger. Combine that with the imminent return of Tyler Shough, and Colombi not doing anything to lose the job... Wells, Cumbie, and the entire offensive staff have some tough decisions to make at the most important position on the field.
The charts below don't tell the whole story, obviously, but I do think they can be important in the decision making process. The first chart is from the Kansas game, and the second is for the season as a whole. As you can see, Donovan Smith leads his position pretty easily. It's important to note that, before this week, he wasn't really being asked to do things anywhere close to the same level as Colombi and Shough. I don't really know what the right answer is, when it comes to starter, reps splitting, and balancing present and future. I do know that it's hard to deny what my eyes tell me in terms of Donovan Smith. He looks like a future game changer, and it would be very difficult for me to keep him off the field, and that includes the guaranteed growing pains. On the other hand, I don't blame Wells for not risking his future on a freshman quarterback. I'm fascinated to see how this shakes out.
- Predicted Points Added (PPA) - EPA metric that measures expected points added on an average play
This first clip is two plays that I loved with Colombi behind center. It was obvious that Cumbie was not happy with the target distribution last week, and he made a concerted effort to fix it. This first play is a perfect example of that, this is a one read, one receiver play to get Price in space. Price goes in motion, gets the whole Kansas defense thinking about him because he is the usual jet sweep guy, and you can see the defenders on the right get set up to tackle him. The moment he doesn't get the ball, he's an after thought and Colombi avoids the rush to deliver him the ball.
This next play is the stuff of football twitter porn. It's a variation of TE or Y Leak. It's called leak because the offense is trying to get the defense to look and move in one direction, while the TE runs in the opposite direction. Cumbie puts Mannix in motion to the right, pulls a guard to the right, boots Colombi to the right, all while Tharp is working his way up the left seam. Great play and great execution, Cumbie is good at this.
This clip is three Donovan Smith plays. The first one looks like zone read out of 12 personnel with both TE's acting as H backs, this was a Lamar Jackson special. I once spent a few hours listening to Jackson's Louisville OC talk about all the unique run game concepts they ran for him, and about half were out of this formation. I need more of it with Smith. The two H backs X in the backfield to confuse the LBs, but there is no read out of the QB/RB mesh, it's just another motion to confuse the LBs. After the mesh point, White turns into a lead blocker and Smith follows him for a first down.
The next play should look familiar, it's what Cumbie killed Tech with last season with Duggan at TCU. It's power read, where the line is blocking power left for the QB, while the play side tackle leaves the DEnd for the read. If the end crashes, he hands it to Price with a full head of steam around the outside, if the end widens, he pulls it and follows the guard. Kansas actually plays this pretty well, but Price is good enough to score anyway... mostly because SaRodorick has a fantastic block.
Finally, this in an old Kansas State special, the old pop pass. This weird formation is screaming QB zone to the right with both TEs and no WRs lined up on that side. Smith then takes a few steps to make Kansas think they've guessed right, pulls up, and throws a bomb downfield to a receiver running in all the vacated space created by the formation and fake. The ball is a little under thrown (I think EZ scores if he just keeps running), but it's not a terrible throw considering the situation, field position, and not being able to step into that throw.
This offense is fun. I'm even more annoyed now that the defense in the TCU and UT games was so inept that it stole our chance to see this offense in a pressure situation. I'm not sure what is going to happen these next few weeks, but I'm hoping Sonny Cumbie's unit gets a chance to show what it can do in meaningful football games for the Red Raiders.
