The predictions at the end of these posts are based strictly on public wager percentages and how sports books are reacting to same. Last year, these posts went 7-3 against the spread, and 6-4 against the over/under. This year, these posts are 1-1 ATS, and 1-1 predicting the total. For what it's worth, I'm 2-1 on actual bets made (ASU +7.5, ASU/Tech Under & Tech/UH Under).
Received some good feedback from @DrBangs -- Less words, moar picks.
4,559 Total Bets
O$U is garnering 61% of the spread bets and spread $.
71% of money line bets are on Tech.
2/3 of the bets on the total are on the over. 75% of the money bet on the total is on the over.
Line opened at -13 and was seemingly pounded by sharps down to -8. I assume as the week went on and public money started coming in, this line has been pushed back up to -10.5, which is the current consensus offshore number. There's been no suspicious line movement to date, which is a bit surprising. Not ruling out a 1% bankroll play on Tech and will continue to monitor line movement and public money.
Pinnacle opened this total at 81, and the over has been pounded, seemingly by sharps and squares, causing it to go up to 84.5. It's the highest total of the weekend. Prior to this morning, I tracked over 90% of the money being placed on the over. No official position yet for me, but I anticipate a 1% bankroll play on this under.
Prediction
Oklahoma State 43
Texas Tech 40
Georgia/Tennessee - I have Vols +7.5. It's just a great spot to back them. Two weeks ago, they lose on hail mary at Florida. They have no pulse last week against UMass in a dreaded "sandwich" game between their Florida & Georgia match-ups. Meanwhile, Georgia is coming off several high-profile wins/covers. 7,000 bets.. over 70% on Georgia.
Unders (158-122 ATS) and underdogs (158-123 ATS) have been hot this year
In fact, the bigger the dog, the better:
Teams closing +21 or higher went 9-3 ATS and are now 74-40 ATS this season.
Teams closing +35 or higher went 3-0 ATS and are now 35-14 ATS this season.
Teams closing +40 or higher went 2-0 ATS and are now 17-5 ATS this season.
Teams closing +45 or higher have gone 8-2 ATS this year and 71-46 ATS since 2007.
Last week, the most lopsided teams in games with high ticket counts all lost ATS: Florida (-3), Oklahoma State (-12), Penn St (-13), and WVU (-24). I was able to fade three of those four.
This week, lopsided teams in games with high ticket counts will likely be: Florida State, Cal, Georgia, and possibly Oklahoma State.
Betting numbers aside, I think the pokes are in trouble . Their effort the last two years against us would be a loss this Saturday. After losing 11 of the last 13 games that I attended going into the year, I'm going for 4 straight this weekend.
Received some good feedback from @DrBangs -- Less words, moar picks.
4,559 Total Bets
O$U is garnering 61% of the spread bets and spread $.
71% of money line bets are on Tech.
2/3 of the bets on the total are on the over. 75% of the money bet on the total is on the over.
Line opened at -13 and was seemingly pounded by sharps down to -8. I assume as the week went on and public money started coming in, this line has been pushed back up to -10.5, which is the current consensus offshore number. There's been no suspicious line movement to date, which is a bit surprising. Not ruling out a 1% bankroll play on Tech and will continue to monitor line movement and public money.
Pinnacle opened this total at 81, and the over has been pounded, seemingly by sharps and squares, causing it to go up to 84.5. It's the highest total of the weekend. Prior to this morning, I tracked over 90% of the money being placed on the over. No official position yet for me, but I anticipate a 1% bankroll play on this under.
Prediction
Oklahoma State 43
Texas Tech 40
Georgia/Tennessee - I have Vols +7.5. It's just a great spot to back them. Two weeks ago, they lose on hail mary at Florida. They have no pulse last week against UMass in a dreaded "sandwich" game between their Florida & Georgia match-ups. Meanwhile, Georgia is coming off several high-profile wins/covers. 7,000 bets.. over 70% on Georgia.
Unders (158-122 ATS) and underdogs (158-123 ATS) have been hot this year
In fact, the bigger the dog, the better:
Teams closing +21 or higher went 9-3 ATS and are now 74-40 ATS this season.
Teams closing +35 or higher went 3-0 ATS and are now 35-14 ATS this season.
Teams closing +40 or higher went 2-0 ATS and are now 17-5 ATS this season.
Teams closing +45 or higher have gone 8-2 ATS this year and 71-46 ATS since 2007.
Last week, the most lopsided teams in games with high ticket counts all lost ATS: Florida (-3), Oklahoma State (-12), Penn St (-13), and WVU (-24). I was able to fade three of those four.
This week, lopsided teams in games with high ticket counts will likely be: Florida State, Cal, Georgia, and possibly Oklahoma State.
Betting numbers aside, I think the pokes are in trouble . Their effort the last two years against us would be a loss this Saturday. After losing 11 of the last 13 games that I attended going into the year, I'm going for 4 straight this weekend.
