It's crazy how much healthier I deal with my complete and utter frustration with the offense after wins, as few and far between as they have been. Winning is by no means a masking agent for the offense, but it makes this easier to write knowing that side of the ball didn't cost Texas Tech another victory.
Without wasting any more time, let's see what College Football Data's Box Score had to say...
Post game win probability looks at advanced metrics like success rates, PPA, and scoring opportunities and assesses the probability of each team winning should the game be played again with equivalent stats. In other words, if you take all of the plays in a game and shuffle them into a random order, how often would each team be expected to win?
Excitement Index is a measure of how exciting a game was to watch. It accomplishes this by measuring swings in win probability throughout the course of the game. The more extreme swings between both teams, the higher the excitement index will be.
Scoring Opportunities consist of all offensive drives in which the ball has been advanced past the defense's 40 yard line.
The first thing that stands out to me here is Baylor's win %, I can't remember the last time Tech pulled off a game they had no business of winning. It's a good feeling, especially since we have been on the other end of that stat.
The next part of this chart that stands out is the Points Per Opportunity number, I've harped on how bad the Tech offense has been in this category all season, so I'll give credit where credit is due. That is the reason they won this game when they shouldn't have.
Success Rate is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:
There's really not a ton that stands out here, especially if you watched the game, but Tech's lack of success through the air and with explosive plays continues to be a problem.
To the film...
This first clip is a play I've been waiting for since Tech hired Wells and his staff, and I started watching Utah State games. The tight end screen. This sets up really well for two reasons, one, Tech uses this backfield action all the time when it is trying to hit a play deep down the seam. The defense saw this, and immediately went to their pass responsibilities. And, two, because Tech's tight end is not a position that the defense really has to key on in the passing game. Add two really good downfield blocks from Deaton and Anderson, and you get a big play.
This clip contains what was probably my two least favorite plays of the day, although that is a hotly contested group. This first play is, you guessed it, a screen. It's a wide receiver middle screen, that could actually be pretty effective if run correctly. The biggest problem I have with all the screens, in general, is that this offense line is not good at them. I know it's common to say "if your offensive line is bad, just run some screens," unfortunately, blocking for screens is really difficult. I would say it's pretty rare to find an offensive lineman who is not very good, but can track down back 7 defenders in space. Just look at this play, it actually sets up pretty well, but not a single offensive lineman blocks anyone. I can't tell you how many times I've screamed "DONT PASS ANYONE UP!" when working screens in practice, and that's what they all do here.
The second play in one where, I like the idea, but it's just not going to work with this personnel. Tech overloads the left side to try to gain numbers on the right, and it works, if Colombi reads the end, and Koontz blocks the OLB, it's a TD. Unfortunately, Colombi makes the wrong read, and isn't fast enough to get to any edge. That mistake is compounded by Koontz's inability to give a decisive block. Koontz is fine blocking in the box, but he has not shown an ability to make that block consistently. The play pretty much rules out the possibility of a touchdown.
This next clip has three of my favorite Bowman plays from Saturday. I am continually frustrated with this offenses lack of production after turnovers, but Bowman drops an absolute dime after McPherson's interception that leads to a touchdown. This is the best Bowman, decisive and looking downfield.
This second play is more of Bowman being decisive. It looks line an RPO, he gets the throw read, and delivers a ball to Vasher that allows him to make a play after the catch. It seems simple, but this is what we need from the QB position right now, get the ball to our skill players in space.
The final play is probably the play of the game, other than Schooler's hit. The offense had gotten one first down on this game-winning drive, but a methodical drive wasn't going to get this game won, they needed a big play, and this was it. Baylor is playing to not give up that big play (even though they did send a blitz), which gives Thompson space in the flat. Bowman avoids the rush perfectly, still keeping his eyes downfield, doesn't take a an unnecessary risk downfield, but gives it to a playmaker in space. Again, this is all we need from Bowman, he doesn't have to rush for 100 yards, but he needs to be able to make this play. I don't want to overshadow Thompson here, him making that first defender miss was absolutely huge.
Let's end with a clip that shows what Bowman has to improve on as he, I can only suspect, takes back over as the starter. Like I said, Bowman's decisiveness is what makes him a serviceable quarterback, however, he has to make the right read or we get what we got in this clip. The pick six on his first throw. The OLB/Safety knew exactly what was coming, watch him, he reads pass and immediately gets into Vasher's lane. In Bowman's defense, this is basically what Yost calls any third and short they aren't running the ball, Bowman is set up to fail.... unless he takes advantage of that Baylor defender jumping the route. Look at Koontz in the slot, that's an easy first down, off what should've been an easy read.
Bowman has got to look the TE's way if the Red Raiders are going to insist on running 11 personnel. On the game winning drive, Tech went 10 personnel for five plays in the middle of that possession, Rigdon replaced Koontz at the Y position and Bowman looked his way twice. I'm not sure what the disconnect is, but it needs to be fixed or Tech is easier to defend. With the current state of this offense, Tech cannot make it easier on the defense.
Without wasting any more time, let's see what College Football Data's Box Score had to say...
Post game win probability looks at advanced metrics like success rates, PPA, and scoring opportunities and assesses the probability of each team winning should the game be played again with equivalent stats. In other words, if you take all of the plays in a game and shuffle them into a random order, how often would each team be expected to win?
Excitement Index is a measure of how exciting a game was to watch. It accomplishes this by measuring swings in win probability throughout the course of the game. The more extreme swings between both teams, the higher the excitement index will be.
Scoring Opportunities consist of all offensive drives in which the ball has been advanced past the defense's 40 yard line.
The first thing that stands out to me here is Baylor's win %, I can't remember the last time Tech pulled off a game they had no business of winning. It's a good feeling, especially since we have been on the other end of that stat.
The next part of this chart that stands out is the Points Per Opportunity number, I've harped on how bad the Tech offense has been in this category all season, so I'll give credit where credit is due. That is the reason they won this game when they shouldn't have.
Success Rate is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:
- the offense scored
- 1st downs which gain at least 50% of the yards to go
- 2nd downs which gain at least 70% of the yards to go
- 3rd and 4th downs which gain at least 100% of the yards to go
There's really not a ton that stands out here, especially if you watched the game, but Tech's lack of success through the air and with explosive plays continues to be a problem.
To the film...
This first clip is a play I've been waiting for since Tech hired Wells and his staff, and I started watching Utah State games. The tight end screen. This sets up really well for two reasons, one, Tech uses this backfield action all the time when it is trying to hit a play deep down the seam. The defense saw this, and immediately went to their pass responsibilities. And, two, because Tech's tight end is not a position that the defense really has to key on in the passing game. Add two really good downfield blocks from Deaton and Anderson, and you get a big play.
This clip contains what was probably my two least favorite plays of the day, although that is a hotly contested group. This first play is, you guessed it, a screen. It's a wide receiver middle screen, that could actually be pretty effective if run correctly. The biggest problem I have with all the screens, in general, is that this offense line is not good at them. I know it's common to say "if your offensive line is bad, just run some screens," unfortunately, blocking for screens is really difficult. I would say it's pretty rare to find an offensive lineman who is not very good, but can track down back 7 defenders in space. Just look at this play, it actually sets up pretty well, but not a single offensive lineman blocks anyone. I can't tell you how many times I've screamed "DONT PASS ANYONE UP!" when working screens in practice, and that's what they all do here.
The second play in one where, I like the idea, but it's just not going to work with this personnel. Tech overloads the left side to try to gain numbers on the right, and it works, if Colombi reads the end, and Koontz blocks the OLB, it's a TD. Unfortunately, Colombi makes the wrong read, and isn't fast enough to get to any edge. That mistake is compounded by Koontz's inability to give a decisive block. Koontz is fine blocking in the box, but he has not shown an ability to make that block consistently. The play pretty much rules out the possibility of a touchdown.
This next clip has three of my favorite Bowman plays from Saturday. I am continually frustrated with this offenses lack of production after turnovers, but Bowman drops an absolute dime after McPherson's interception that leads to a touchdown. This is the best Bowman, decisive and looking downfield.
This second play is more of Bowman being decisive. It looks line an RPO, he gets the throw read, and delivers a ball to Vasher that allows him to make a play after the catch. It seems simple, but this is what we need from the QB position right now, get the ball to our skill players in space.
The final play is probably the play of the game, other than Schooler's hit. The offense had gotten one first down on this game-winning drive, but a methodical drive wasn't going to get this game won, they needed a big play, and this was it. Baylor is playing to not give up that big play (even though they did send a blitz), which gives Thompson space in the flat. Bowman avoids the rush perfectly, still keeping his eyes downfield, doesn't take a an unnecessary risk downfield, but gives it to a playmaker in space. Again, this is all we need from Bowman, he doesn't have to rush for 100 yards, but he needs to be able to make this play. I don't want to overshadow Thompson here, him making that first defender miss was absolutely huge.
Let's end with a clip that shows what Bowman has to improve on as he, I can only suspect, takes back over as the starter. Like I said, Bowman's decisiveness is what makes him a serviceable quarterback, however, he has to make the right read or we get what we got in this clip. The pick six on his first throw. The OLB/Safety knew exactly what was coming, watch him, he reads pass and immediately gets into Vasher's lane. In Bowman's defense, this is basically what Yost calls any third and short they aren't running the ball, Bowman is set up to fail.... unless he takes advantage of that Baylor defender jumping the route. Look at Koontz in the slot, that's an easy first down, off what should've been an easy read.
Bowman has got to look the TE's way if the Red Raiders are going to insist on running 11 personnel. On the game winning drive, Tech went 10 personnel for five plays in the middle of that possession, Rigdon replaced Koontz at the Y position and Bowman looked his way twice. I'm not sure what the disconnect is, but it needs to be fixed or Tech is easier to defend. With the current state of this offense, Tech cannot make it easier on the defense.
