Well, that was certainly better than losing.
I'm wrong plenty, but I thought I had a pretty good read on this game, and looking back on my preview, it was confirmed.
I think most Texas Tech fans, and many on this very website, are in agreement about what we watched on Saturday; winning is always a good thing, but in no way is everything good. I am of two minds on this game, one, Tech is significantly more talented that West Virginia and should have won by more than seven. And, two, with the current state of Tech football, any Big 12 win is a good win. I don't think the fact that Tech should have one by more and didn't is any huge indictment of this coaching staff or team. As the great Vince Lombardi would say, "winning is a habit," and this program needs to develop that habit in the worst way. The only way to develop that winning habit is to win, which is why I'm ok with "only winning by seven." Now, if that habit doesn't develop over the coming weeks, then different conversations need to be had, but for now, I'm going to enjoy this win.
Speaking of enjoying things, Yost's offensive game plan after the first quarter was not one of them. I've heard a lot of people gnashing their teeth about the screens, I'm not one that's going to lose my mind over the amount of screen passes, especially with the play of the offensive line in recent games. There's a reason every modern offense runs them, they are essentially run plays that get good athletes in space, sure, sometimes they don't work, but sometimes run plays are stuffed too. I would love to see some Kyle Shanahan innovative offense run here at Texas Tech, one that is at the forefront of innovation that leaves defenses guessing, but those guys don't grow on trees and I'm trying to be realistic. Ultimately, my issues with Yost come down to two things; one, the offense is incredibly predictable, and two, the lack of aggressive play calling. On Saturday's, I can sit on my couch and guess the play Tech is about to run with about 80% accuracy... that's not good. If I know what Tech is doing, the defense knows too, and that just means Tech is going to have to out skill and execute the defense, and that's not always a good matchup for the Red Raiders. As bad as the predictability is, the lack of aggression is what really is hurting this team. There are plenty of examples, there are entire games that could be used as examples, but nothing proves this point better than this Saturday. Third and eight, tie ball game, fourth quarter, and the Texas Tech offense runs a zone read. A give up play that had no chance of extending the drive, it's incredibly unfortunate to see.
What makes it worse is Colombi showed what he could do on the first drive, three times he turned a bad play into a good one. However, calling quick screens and zone reads all game. completely takes the impromptu element out of his game, and plays right into the defense's hands.
Here is some data from CollegeFootballData.com from the game Saturday.
Scoring Opportunities consist of all offensive drives in which the ball has been advanced past the defense's 40 yard line.
This first chart is nice to see because it has so often been the opposite under Wells and Yost. Good teams capitalize on scoring opportunities, hopefully this trend continues. I do think one factor here is Colombi's ability to run, it opens some things up when the field shrinks.
Success Rate is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:
Explosiveness measures the average EPA on plays which were marked as successful. It uses this site's EPA implementation (known as PPA).
Again, this shows the change in philosophy from the first quarter on, and I do not think it was a lack of execution, I think we saw a more conservative approach after the aggressiveness was rewarded in the first quarter.
To the film...
I put these plays together on the first clip because they show you what Colombi brings to the table. In the first play, it's a third down that he just made manageable by scrambling on second, his first read is covered and instead of panicking, he calmly eludes the pressure and buys enough time to hit a huge play. I'm afraid that would've been a punt in any game previously, but Colombi gives you a chance. On the second play, I'm not really sure he needs to leave the pocket, but look at the receivers and route combinations... that ain't working either, all the two yard hitches are covered, so I'm great with making something happen. If the play calling is going to be limited, Colombi's ability to create something out of nothing is going to be invaluable the rest of the season. Again, Colombi turns a probable long third and punt into a fresh set of downs.
I haven't seen enough of Colombi to fully grade his arm talent, although I do not think it's at Bowman's level, but the clip here shows us that he has more than enough to be successful. This first play is impressive for all kinds of reasons, he pulls the ball to throw on the RPO, which is the right read, hangs in there and delivers a strike for a first down, all while being smothered by an outside linebacker... I'm not entirely sure how he got the throw off, but it worked. The second play is just
.
I mean, it's fourth and long, pressure coming, and he throws a perfect pass that makes Eazy open because the WVU DB has really good coverage. It's a heck of a catch as well, but the throw is a thing of beauty especially in that spot. This play call and decision does not jive with most of the game plan, but I want to see more of it. And the last play is just solid play, the offensive line does a good job giving time, and Colombi is patient and doesn't just take off when he sees an opening. I like the shallow cross here because you assume WVU is going to be playing man, but even if they aren't, you are getting the ball to an athlete in space... and it works, touchdown. Great finish by Cleveland and it's great to see that level of calm and patience in the pocket from Colombi.
Tech seemed to run quite a bit more presnap motion this week, and I am all for it. That's something that seems to correlate with good offenses. Yost called this particular play several times on Saturday, and I'm not entirely sure what everyone's job is on the play. This play looks like the inside zone with a wham block that they run a lot, but that's not always where Koontz ended up. Either way, it's not blocked great as Anderson and Burger struggle to get a push, but freshman Tahj Brooks makes up for it with a really good run. He shows patience, excellent vision, and that burst to finish it off. Very impressive.
Since I end the losses with the good, I might as well end the wins with the bad. I really didn't find a ton of individual errors that really cost the Red Raiders, that was all done by game plan and play calling. The plays in this clip show some of those issues. The first clip is just a microcosm of Carde's day. He was pretty decent in the run game, but really struggled protecting Colombi, there's nothing fancy here from the WVU end, but he just runs right past Carde, he's got to at least make it difficult. In the second play, I'm not a huge fan of this play call on fourth and two, but if it's called then Colombi has to get rid of that ball the moment the route breaks. Yeah, it's probably PI, but it wouldn't have mattered if the ball is on time. With the last play, it's the very first offensive play from the Red Raiders, and I was ready to walk out of the press box when I watched it. Since those plays were so successful against Iowa State, let's start the next game with one! I just don't get, it's obviously not blocked well, but even if it was, there are more defenders than the receivers can block anyway. Let's retire this one, Yost.
Colombi absolutely has his limitations, and maybe that's why we saw a "watered down version" of the offense, but he also will fight for every possible yard that will give this skill position group more chances to show off. As frustrated as I am with Yost, for this first time in a long time I am looking forward to watching Tech play Saturday, and that says plenty.
I'm wrong plenty, but I thought I had a pretty good read on this game, and looking back on my preview, it was confirmed.
I think most Texas Tech fans, and many on this very website, are in agreement about what we watched on Saturday; winning is always a good thing, but in no way is everything good. I am of two minds on this game, one, Tech is significantly more talented that West Virginia and should have won by more than seven. And, two, with the current state of Tech football, any Big 12 win is a good win. I don't think the fact that Tech should have one by more and didn't is any huge indictment of this coaching staff or team. As the great Vince Lombardi would say, "winning is a habit," and this program needs to develop that habit in the worst way. The only way to develop that winning habit is to win, which is why I'm ok with "only winning by seven." Now, if that habit doesn't develop over the coming weeks, then different conversations need to be had, but for now, I'm going to enjoy this win.
Speaking of enjoying things, Yost's offensive game plan after the first quarter was not one of them. I've heard a lot of people gnashing their teeth about the screens, I'm not one that's going to lose my mind over the amount of screen passes, especially with the play of the offensive line in recent games. There's a reason every modern offense runs them, they are essentially run plays that get good athletes in space, sure, sometimes they don't work, but sometimes run plays are stuffed too. I would love to see some Kyle Shanahan innovative offense run here at Texas Tech, one that is at the forefront of innovation that leaves defenses guessing, but those guys don't grow on trees and I'm trying to be realistic. Ultimately, my issues with Yost come down to two things; one, the offense is incredibly predictable, and two, the lack of aggressive play calling. On Saturday's, I can sit on my couch and guess the play Tech is about to run with about 80% accuracy... that's not good. If I know what Tech is doing, the defense knows too, and that just means Tech is going to have to out skill and execute the defense, and that's not always a good matchup for the Red Raiders. As bad as the predictability is, the lack of aggression is what really is hurting this team. There are plenty of examples, there are entire games that could be used as examples, but nothing proves this point better than this Saturday. Third and eight, tie ball game, fourth quarter, and the Texas Tech offense runs a zone read. A give up play that had no chance of extending the drive, it's incredibly unfortunate to see.
What makes it worse is Colombi showed what he could do on the first drive, three times he turned a bad play into a good one. However, calling quick screens and zone reads all game. completely takes the impromptu element out of his game, and plays right into the defense's hands.
Here is some data from CollegeFootballData.com from the game Saturday.
Scoring Opportunities consist of all offensive drives in which the ball has been advanced past the defense's 40 yard line.
This first chart is nice to see because it has so often been the opposite under Wells and Yost. Good teams capitalize on scoring opportunities, hopefully this trend continues. I do think one factor here is Colombi's ability to run, it opens some things up when the field shrinks.
Success Rate is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:
- the offense scored
- 1st downs which gain at least 50% of the yards to go
- 2nd downs which gain at least 70% of the yards to go
- 3rd and 4th downs which gain at least 100% of the yards to go
Explosiveness measures the average EPA on plays which were marked as successful. It uses this site's EPA implementation (known as PPA).
Again, this shows the change in philosophy from the first quarter on, and I do not think it was a lack of execution, I think we saw a more conservative approach after the aggressiveness was rewarded in the first quarter.
To the film...
I put these plays together on the first clip because they show you what Colombi brings to the table. In the first play, it's a third down that he just made manageable by scrambling on second, his first read is covered and instead of panicking, he calmly eludes the pressure and buys enough time to hit a huge play. I'm afraid that would've been a punt in any game previously, but Colombi gives you a chance. On the second play, I'm not really sure he needs to leave the pocket, but look at the receivers and route combinations... that ain't working either, all the two yard hitches are covered, so I'm great with making something happen. If the play calling is going to be limited, Colombi's ability to create something out of nothing is going to be invaluable the rest of the season. Again, Colombi turns a probable long third and punt into a fresh set of downs.
I haven't seen enough of Colombi to fully grade his arm talent, although I do not think it's at Bowman's level, but the clip here shows us that he has more than enough to be successful. This first play is impressive for all kinds of reasons, he pulls the ball to throw on the RPO, which is the right read, hangs in there and delivers a strike for a first down, all while being smothered by an outside linebacker... I'm not entirely sure how he got the throw off, but it worked. The second play is just
I mean, it's fourth and long, pressure coming, and he throws a perfect pass that makes Eazy open because the WVU DB has really good coverage. It's a heck of a catch as well, but the throw is a thing of beauty especially in that spot. This play call and decision does not jive with most of the game plan, but I want to see more of it. And the last play is just solid play, the offensive line does a good job giving time, and Colombi is patient and doesn't just take off when he sees an opening. I like the shallow cross here because you assume WVU is going to be playing man, but even if they aren't, you are getting the ball to an athlete in space... and it works, touchdown. Great finish by Cleveland and it's great to see that level of calm and patience in the pocket from Colombi.
Tech seemed to run quite a bit more presnap motion this week, and I am all for it. That's something that seems to correlate with good offenses. Yost called this particular play several times on Saturday, and I'm not entirely sure what everyone's job is on the play. This play looks like the inside zone with a wham block that they run a lot, but that's not always where Koontz ended up. Either way, it's not blocked great as Anderson and Burger struggle to get a push, but freshman Tahj Brooks makes up for it with a really good run. He shows patience, excellent vision, and that burst to finish it off. Very impressive.
Since I end the losses with the good, I might as well end the wins with the bad. I really didn't find a ton of individual errors that really cost the Red Raiders, that was all done by game plan and play calling. The plays in this clip show some of those issues. The first clip is just a microcosm of Carde's day. He was pretty decent in the run game, but really struggled protecting Colombi, there's nothing fancy here from the WVU end, but he just runs right past Carde, he's got to at least make it difficult. In the second play, I'm not a huge fan of this play call on fourth and two, but if it's called then Colombi has to get rid of that ball the moment the route breaks. Yeah, it's probably PI, but it wouldn't have mattered if the ball is on time. With the last play, it's the very first offensive play from the Red Raiders, and I was ready to walk out of the press box when I watched it. Since those plays were so successful against Iowa State, let's start the next game with one! I just don't get, it's obviously not blocked well, but even if it was, there are more defenders than the receivers can block anyway. Let's retire this one, Yost.
Colombi absolutely has his limitations, and maybe that's why we saw a "watered down version" of the offense, but he also will fight for every possible yard that will give this skill position group more chances to show off. As frustrated as I am with Yost, for this first time in a long time I am looking forward to watching Tech play Saturday, and that says plenty.
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