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NCAA tournament outlook (NET, quadrants, etc)

Lubbockist

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Aug 5, 2011
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Updating @Brandon Bohannon 's post from earlier in the season with new NET rankings and W/L quadrant:

W vs Eastern Illinois #214 - Q4
W vs Bethune-Cookman #281 - Q4
W $ Houston Baptist #345 - Q4
W vs Tennessee State #236 - Q4
W vs Long Island #246 - Q4
L $ Iowa #30 - Q1
L OT $ Creighton #22 - Q1
L OT at DePaul #67 - Q1
W $ Louisville #7 - Q1
W vs Southern Miss #274 - Q4
W vs UTRGV #297 - Q4
W vs CSU Bakersfield #256 - Q4
W vs Oklahoma State #74 - Q2
L vs Baylor #2 - Q1
L at West Virginia #8 - Q1
W at Kansas State #77 - Q2
W vs Iowa State #75 - Q2
L at TCU #72 - Q1
L vs Kentucky #24 - Q1
W vs West Virginia #8 - Q1
L at Kansas #4 - Q1
W vs Oklahoma #57 - Q2

at Texas #62 - Q1
vs TCU #72 - Q2
at Oklahoma State #74 - Q1
vs Kansas State #77 - Q3
at Iowa State #75 - Q1
at Oklahoma #57 - Q1
vs Texas #62 - Q2
at Baylor #2 - Q1
vs Kansas #4 - Q1

Average win: #175
Average loss: #29


Quadrant W/L record so far:
Q1: 2-8
Q2: 4-0
Q3: 0-0
Q4: 8-0

Upcoming schedule:
Q1: 6 games (1 @ home)
Q2: 2 games (2 @ home)
Q3: 1 game (@ home)

The cutoff between quadrants is NET #75/76 which is extremely important to us since we have four opponents between #72 and #77. Ideally we need all of them above the fold there to keep those wins/losses in the higher quadrants.

So if OSU falls below #75, that makes our home win just a Q3. If they can stay above #75, that would give us a chance for a potential Q1 road win. Same with ISU. If they fall below #75 that win goes from Q2 to Q3. KSU is hovering just below that, but if they could get above #75 that would give us a much needed Q1 road win. We should all be cheering for these schools to beat someone other than each other and get/stay above the fold there. I won't be and don't expect anyone to cheer for TCU, but if they drop below #75 that becomes a Q2 ("bad") loss. Also, Depaul is on like an 8 game losing streak and has dropped like a stone. If they fall below 75 that becomes another Q2 loss that we can't afford.

It may not seem like #75 or #76 should matter, but that moves them to a different box on the team sheets the selection committee is given when they are making tournament decisions (example below). We want all of our losses in the first box and as many wins as possible there.

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