Here is just one paragraph of the free portion from today’s release.
This is the most important complication: if Biden loses Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — and he trails badly in each — he’ll need to win all three of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and not just one of them (https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-270-is-the-most-dangerous-number). Even though these states are pretty heavily correlated, they aren’t perfectly correlated. Winning several different correlated bets is still hard. (Just ask the DraftKings how it makes so much money on same-game parlays.) And these states do have some differences with one another: Wisconsin is more rural, for instance, and Michigan has the largest Arab/Muslim/Palestinian population. In our simulations, Biden wins at least one of these states 54 percent of the time. But he wins all three of them in only 32 percent of simulations. This is the sort of
precision that a model can provide that your intuition really can’t.
This is the most important complication: if Biden loses Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — and he trails badly in each — he’ll need to win all three of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and not just one of them (https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-270-is-the-most-dangerous-number). Even though these states are pretty heavily correlated, they aren’t perfectly correlated. Winning several different correlated bets is still hard. (Just ask the DraftKings how it makes so much money on same-game parlays.) And these states do have some differences with one another: Wisconsin is more rural, for instance, and Michigan has the largest Arab/Muslim/Palestinian population. In our simulations, Biden wins at least one of these states 54 percent of the time. But he wins all three of them in only 32 percent of simulations. This is the sort of
precision that a model can provide that your intuition really can’t.
