QB Situation
In a vast majority of the games in Matt Wells' tenure, he operated with a starting QB that was in the bottom 3 in this league. That wasn't really his fault. He inherited a guy (Bowman) that turned out to be not so good and was frequently injured. The backup QB he inherited, Jett Duffey, was okay... maybe even better than Bowman. Unfortunately, the week that Duffey was scheduled to make his first start, the football program was made aware of the disposition of a second Title IX claim re: sexual assault. Just a disaster of a first few games for Wells' QB room.
After the first year, the majority of QB snaps were taken by a Utah State transfer that would've started at exactly 1 other Big 12 program over that time frame. The transfer that was brought in to shore up those QB deficiencies gets hurt diving into the endzone in his first Big 12 start.
I do believe that Wells left the QB room in a much better situation than he found it with Donovan / Shough / Morton. Hopefully at least two of them stick around.
The Baylor Butt Fumble Game in 2019
In one of the most inspiring performances in the Wells' era, Tech loses on a blown call. We also elected to kick a FG in the first possession of OT on 4th and 2. That was a bad decision. IMO, I don't think Wells would've kicked in that spot by year 3. But he kicked in that spot in year 1, and it hurt our chances of winning tremendously.
The Kansas Game in 2019
The most egregious decision in the Wells' era was made in this game, which is really saying something considering we kicked a FG on 2nd down.
With 1 min left in the game, Kansas converted a 7-yard pass to make it 2nd and 3 at Tech's 22-yard line. At that point in the game, it was inevitable that Kansas would attempt a game-winning FG. In fact, you would not expect them to even try for anything more than that (i.e., they aren't throwing a fade to the end zone on the ensuing plays).
We should've immediately called a TO with roughly 50 seconds left. Impossible to say what would've happened the next two plays. But, had it played out the same way it did that Saturday, Kansas is kicking their first FG attempt with at least 30-40 seconds left on the clock, and Doug Coleman is certainly not attempting to lateral the ball after it was blocked with that much time left. Calling a TO when we should've was the only possible way to create another possession for ourselves at the end of the game. By not calling a TO, the only outcomes from that point forward were OT or loss in regulation. Calling a TO gives you a chance to win in regulation, even if Kansas had converted a FG.
I will never understand that decision.
Failed Onside Kick Recovery v. UT in 2020
This one speaks for itself. That was a deflating loss and who knows how the rest of the season plays out had we won that game. At minimum, we would've played in a bowl game last year.
Kicking a FG on 2nd Down v. TCU in 2020
This decision wasn't that impactful because we had such a small percentage of winning that game regardless. But, perception wise, it was a disaster. The math on that decision was actually quite simple. And there is just no way it gave us a better chance of winning. See this post if you want to relive that. https://texastech.forums.rivals.com/threads/thoughts-on-the-decisions.145802/#post-3915651
But again, it was blowback from that decision that was most harmful. Many people lost faith in our process after that game. And I don't blame them.
Putting Together (Finally) a Competent Roster and Having Unexplainable Results
There is no explanation for TCU and UT gaining all the yards and scoring all the touchdowns against this defense. Period. And, based on Kirby's presser yesterday, it was the TCU game that confirmed this result was "inevitable."
Devin Drew Personal Foul Penalty v. KSU in 2021
Without the penalty, ESPN's gamecast gave Tech nearly an 85% chance of winning the game. After the penalty, it was around 60%. I tend to agree with those numbers that it was very likely that we win that game without the penalty. Of course, we still could've lost out. But that penalty ended up being a death blow to Wells' tenure.
Wells' tenure was a total disaster. He was put in a situation where his team would need to overperform their capabilities to win, at least early on, largely due to the QB situation he inherited. A sizeable portion of the fans did not like him from the outset. He made egregious decisions that lead to Tech losing to Kansas. He made, perception wise, a horrible decision to kick a FG on 2nd down. Both of those decisions validated all of the fans that did not want him from the outset. And then his best roster performed as bad as it possibly could against UT and TCU in year 3. Throw in the negative effects of COVID on a new coach. Everything that could've gone wrong, pretty much did.
That is the playbook to getting fired midway through year 3 with a winning record. It's unprecedented. He joins Lane Kiffin, Steve Sarkisian, and Nick Rolovich as the only coaches I can find that were fired midseason with a winning record. But this is how it happens.
There's no way our next coach will be as snake-bit as Matt Wells.. no way....
In a vast majority of the games in Matt Wells' tenure, he operated with a starting QB that was in the bottom 3 in this league. That wasn't really his fault. He inherited a guy (Bowman) that turned out to be not so good and was frequently injured. The backup QB he inherited, Jett Duffey, was okay... maybe even better than Bowman. Unfortunately, the week that Duffey was scheduled to make his first start, the football program was made aware of the disposition of a second Title IX claim re: sexual assault. Just a disaster of a first few games for Wells' QB room.
After the first year, the majority of QB snaps were taken by a Utah State transfer that would've started at exactly 1 other Big 12 program over that time frame. The transfer that was brought in to shore up those QB deficiencies gets hurt diving into the endzone in his first Big 12 start.
I do believe that Wells left the QB room in a much better situation than he found it with Donovan / Shough / Morton. Hopefully at least two of them stick around.
The Baylor Butt Fumble Game in 2019
In one of the most inspiring performances in the Wells' era, Tech loses on a blown call. We also elected to kick a FG in the first possession of OT on 4th and 2. That was a bad decision. IMO, I don't think Wells would've kicked in that spot by year 3. But he kicked in that spot in year 1, and it hurt our chances of winning tremendously.
The Kansas Game in 2019
The most egregious decision in the Wells' era was made in this game, which is really saying something considering we kicked a FG on 2nd down.
With 1 min left in the game, Kansas converted a 7-yard pass to make it 2nd and 3 at Tech's 22-yard line. At that point in the game, it was inevitable that Kansas would attempt a game-winning FG. In fact, you would not expect them to even try for anything more than that (i.e., they aren't throwing a fade to the end zone on the ensuing plays).
We should've immediately called a TO with roughly 50 seconds left. Impossible to say what would've happened the next two plays. But, had it played out the same way it did that Saturday, Kansas is kicking their first FG attempt with at least 30-40 seconds left on the clock, and Doug Coleman is certainly not attempting to lateral the ball after it was blocked with that much time left. Calling a TO when we should've was the only possible way to create another possession for ourselves at the end of the game. By not calling a TO, the only outcomes from that point forward were OT or loss in regulation. Calling a TO gives you a chance to win in regulation, even if Kansas had converted a FG.
I will never understand that decision.
Failed Onside Kick Recovery v. UT in 2020
This one speaks for itself. That was a deflating loss and who knows how the rest of the season plays out had we won that game. At minimum, we would've played in a bowl game last year.
Kicking a FG on 2nd Down v. TCU in 2020
This decision wasn't that impactful because we had such a small percentage of winning that game regardless. But, perception wise, it was a disaster. The math on that decision was actually quite simple. And there is just no way it gave us a better chance of winning. See this post if you want to relive that. https://texastech.forums.rivals.com/threads/thoughts-on-the-decisions.145802/#post-3915651
But again, it was blowback from that decision that was most harmful. Many people lost faith in our process after that game. And I don't blame them.
Putting Together (Finally) a Competent Roster and Having Unexplainable Results
There is no explanation for TCU and UT gaining all the yards and scoring all the touchdowns against this defense. Period. And, based on Kirby's presser yesterday, it was the TCU game that confirmed this result was "inevitable."
Devin Drew Personal Foul Penalty v. KSU in 2021
Without the penalty, ESPN's gamecast gave Tech nearly an 85% chance of winning the game. After the penalty, it was around 60%. I tend to agree with those numbers that it was very likely that we win that game without the penalty. Of course, we still could've lost out. But that penalty ended up being a death blow to Wells' tenure.
Wells' tenure was a total disaster. He was put in a situation where his team would need to overperform their capabilities to win, at least early on, largely due to the QB situation he inherited. A sizeable portion of the fans did not like him from the outset. He made egregious decisions that lead to Tech losing to Kansas. He made, perception wise, a horrible decision to kick a FG on 2nd down. Both of those decisions validated all of the fans that did not want him from the outset. And then his best roster performed as bad as it possibly could against UT and TCU in year 3. Throw in the negative effects of COVID on a new coach. Everything that could've gone wrong, pretty much did.
That is the playbook to getting fired midway through year 3 with a winning record. It's unprecedented. He joins Lane Kiffin, Steve Sarkisian, and Nick Rolovich as the only coaches I can find that were fired midseason with a winning record. But this is how it happens.
There's no way our next coach will be as snake-bit as Matt Wells.. no way....
