At 4-2 in the Big 12, Texas Tech sits tied for fourth with Kansas State with the tied for second Colorado Buffaloes coming into Lubbock this weekend.
With a win over Iowa State in the bag, Texas Tech's path to the Big 12 championship game is still somewhat unlikely, but still technically possible, which is all you can ask for as we currently sit in early November.
Texas Tech's remaining schedule has three games on it, two of which being at home and a visit to Stillwater, all effectively being elimination games and this all goes out the window if Tech were to take a loss at any point the rest of the way.
However, in the scenario where Tech would win out, the Red Raiders would need help to get to the title game despite having tie-breakers over Iowa State and Colorado, the teams currently sitting in second place.
The clearest path for a 9-3 (7-2 Big 12) Tech team would be a second loss for Iowa State, and a loss from Kansas State somewhere down the stretch, but likely not from Iowa State in the regular season finale.
ISU Remaining Schedule:
11/9: at Kansas
11/16: vs. Cincinnati
11/23: at Utah
11/30: v. K-State
KST Remaining Schedule:
11/16: vs. Arizona State
11/23: vs. Cincinnati
11/30 at Iowa State
If Kansas State doesn't take a third loss on the season, the tie-breaker would follow the Big 12's tiebreakers, which goes to "win percentage against common conference opponents," which K-State is currently 3-0 against opponents on Tech's 2024 conference schedule (beat Arizona in a non-con game, so that doesn't count), with all three remaining games counting towards that. Tech sits at 2-0 in games against K-State common opponents, with all three remaining games counting towards that.
The remaining tiebreakers go beyond reasonably checking right now, but there is a path for Texas Tech to play in Arlington. We have a meaningful game in November in Lubbock, Texas on Saturday afternoon.
TLDR: Win out, KSU beats ISU, KSU loses to ASU/Cincy.
With a win over Iowa State in the bag, Texas Tech's path to the Big 12 championship game is still somewhat unlikely, but still technically possible, which is all you can ask for as we currently sit in early November.
Texas Tech's remaining schedule has three games on it, two of which being at home and a visit to Stillwater, all effectively being elimination games and this all goes out the window if Tech were to take a loss at any point the rest of the way.
However, in the scenario where Tech would win out, the Red Raiders would need help to get to the title game despite having tie-breakers over Iowa State and Colorado, the teams currently sitting in second place.
The clearest path for a 9-3 (7-2 Big 12) Tech team would be a second loss for Iowa State, and a loss from Kansas State somewhere down the stretch, but likely not from Iowa State in the regular season finale.
ISU Remaining Schedule:
11/9: at Kansas
11/16: vs. Cincinnati
11/23: at Utah
11/30: v. K-State
KST Remaining Schedule:
11/16: vs. Arizona State
11/23: vs. Cincinnati
11/30 at Iowa State
If Kansas State doesn't take a third loss on the season, the tie-breaker would follow the Big 12's tiebreakers, which goes to "win percentage against common conference opponents," which K-State is currently 3-0 against opponents on Tech's 2024 conference schedule (beat Arizona in a non-con game, so that doesn't count), with all three remaining games counting towards that. Tech sits at 2-0 in games against K-State common opponents, with all three remaining games counting towards that.
The remaining tiebreakers go beyond reasonably checking right now, but there is a path for Texas Tech to play in Arlington. We have a meaningful game in November in Lubbock, Texas on Saturday afternoon.
TLDR: Win out, KSU beats ISU, KSU loses to ASU/Cincy.
