What the likelihood of Texas Tech making the CFP next year was. Here was the answer -
Bottom line up front
Because the 2024-25 season is the first with a 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP), Texas Tech no longer has to run the table to get in. A Big 12 title would guarantee a berth (the five highest-ranked conference champs are automatic), and a 10-2 résumé could still earn one of the seven at-large spots.
Using the major publicly available models plus the new format:
Putting those numbers together, most models land between 8 % and 15 % for Texas Tech to reach the expanded CFP. That’s the program’s best preseason outlook of the playoff era.
With a forgiving schedule, a veteran QB, and the Big 12’s wide-open pecking order, Texas Tech has a real—but still outside—shot at the playoff. A reasonable expectation is 9–3 or 10–2; hit the high end and Lubbock could be celebrating its first CFP trip.
Right now the smart money puts the Red Raiders’ playoff probability in the low-double digits (about 1-in-10). That’s enough to dream—just not enough to book January flights quite yet.
Bottom line up front
Because the 2024-25 season is the first with a 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP), Texas Tech no longer has to run the table to get in. A Big 12 title would guarantee a berth (the five highest-ranked conference champs are automatic), and a 10-2 résumé could still earn one of the seven at-large spots.
Using the major publicly available models plus the new format:
| Metric | What it says | Playoff-berth takeaway |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN SP+ – No. 26 overall, 73 % returning production 6th-best in FBS, projected strength-of-schedule (SOS) 62nd | 7 % chance to finish 11-1 or better (same as BYU, higher than Arizona St.) | ~8–10 % CFP chance if they hit 11-1; ~3–5 % at 10-2 |
| Way-Too-Early Top 25 – No. 16 post-spring ranking | A consensus fringe-top-20 team | On the right side of the CFP bubble in preseason polls |
| ESPN Bet futures – +10,000 to win the national title (100-to-1) | Implies ~1 % title chance; historically a 10–12 % playoff probability for that price tier | Vegas sees them as a plausible but longshot bid |
| On3/CBS national pundits – several list Tech as a dark-horse playoff pick, slotting them as a projected 10-seed in the 12-team bracket | Narrative momentum matches the analytics | Outsiders view the path as “difficult but doable” |
Putting those numbers together, most models land between 8 % and 15 % for Texas Tech to reach the expanded CFP. That’s the program’s best preseason outlook of the playoff era.
Why the optimism?
| Factor | Details | Edge for Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Roster continuity | 73 % returning production, including QB Behren Morton (3,300 yds, 27 TD in ’24) and 9 defensive starters | Experience + system stability in year 3 under HC Joey McGuire |
| Transfer-portal haul | No. 2 portal class per ESPN: 17 newcomers, 7 top-75 transfers, >$10 M NIL investment | Filled holes at CB, LT, and WR with Power-4 starters |
| Manageable schedule | Seven home games and no Texas, OU, TCU or Baylor on the slate(Midland Reporter-Telegram)Non-conf: Ark-Pine Bluff, Kent State, Oregon State | SOS only 62nd; 10-2 is realistic if they split the toughest trips (Utah, Arizona St., Kansas St.) |
| Big 12 landscape | Only Kansas State (No. 18 SP+) rates higher in SP+; league depth good but lacks a juggernaut | Tech can win the conference without beating a top-10 team |
What could derail the run?
- Defense in high-leverage downs. SP+ still pegs the unit 55th in success-rate despite the returning starters. Last season they finished 97th in red-zone TD rate.
- Road gauntlet in October. Back-to-back at Arizona State (Oct 18) and Kansas State (Nov 1) followed by West Virginia (Nov 29) means one slip could force an at-large bid.
- Depth behind Morton. The QB has battled shoulder issues two years running; true freshman Zane Flores is the next man up.
Scenarios to watch
| Finish | Likely Record | CFP Odds | How it happens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Big 12 champion | 11-1 or 10-2 | ~85 % (auto-bid if top-12) | Sweep home games, split Utah/K-State road swing |
| At-large | 10-2 | 30–40 % | Lose the league title game but stay in top-12 with quality wins vs. KSU/Utah |
| Outside looking in | 9-3 | <10 % | Slip‐ups vs. Utah and K-State, plus one upset (e.g., Houston) |
Verdict
With a forgiving schedule, a veteran QB, and the Big 12’s wide-open pecking order, Texas Tech has a real—but still outside—shot at the playoff. A reasonable expectation is 9–3 or 10–2; hit the high end and Lubbock could be celebrating its first CFP trip.
Right now the smart money puts the Red Raiders’ playoff probability in the low-double digits (about 1-in-10). That’s enough to dream—just not enough to book January flights quite yet.
