Something I hear on this board a lot (and I have agreed with) is that Mike Leach boosted his record with soft 4-game non-conference schedules. I have generally agreed with the theory that the current 9 game Big 12 season, and the requirement to schedule a P5 non-conference opponent, has hamstrung Tech in the 2010’s. Also that Leach's results would have dropped I wanted to see how accurate this is, so I looked at Leach’s tenure, and period between 2011-2019 when the new scheduling system was put in place. I threw out 2010 because they played a traditional 4 non-conference game schedule and I’m still mad at myself for thinking that Tuberville was a good coach. I also threw out bowls because frankly they skew the data, Leach went to a bunch, and the following coaches didn’t (his win percentage is basically the same with bowls).
Mike Leach, regular season only:
I was surprised to see that over his time here Leach only averaged three non-conference G5 or lower games per year. I would have assumed closer to four, but I wasn’t around for the non-conference schedule in the early 2000’s. I was also surprised to see that the last three coaches have outperformed Leach slightly in G5 games.
I was shocked to see the disparity in P5 records, Leach’s first year at 38%-win percentage is the only year that is lower than any year from 2011-2019. The highest win percentage from the later period, 2015’s 50%-win percentage, would rank in a four-way tie for sixth on Leach’s list. The average win percentage of the three later coaches is slightly over half that of Leach’s time at Tech. Leach did play fewer P5 teams per year (8.5/year) than the following coaches (9.67/year), but the disparity wasn’t as great as I had thought.
To compare them to the schedules that Leach played, I gave the 2011-2019 crew three G5 games and assumed they won all three every year. Then I assumed that they won the remaining nine P5 games at the same rate that they did with the actual schedule. The average estimated record during that time, with those parameters ends up being W 6.01 - L 5.99. Slightly better than the W 5.4 - L 6.6 we actually averaged.
Assumed records for Leach 2011 -2019:
The conclusion that I draw is that the G5 wins did not inflate Leach’s record to the extent I thought they did. All else being equal (motivation, money, recruiting) I think he would have handily out-performed the coaches from 2011 – 2019. I do think there is a legitimate question about his motivation or if he’s been figured out though, I glanced at his records at Wazzou and they seemed worse overall than his time at Tech.
I think this shows that coaching can make a big impact at Tech, we just have to find the right one.
**Random fact I didn’t know, we played 14 games in 2002? I checked two different sources and that’s what they said.
Mike Leach, regular season only:
- Total regular season record: 78-40, win percentage 66.1%
- G5 or lower record: 30-3, win percentage 90.9%
- Power five record: 49-36, win percentage 57.6%
- Total regular season record: 49-59, win percentage 45.4%
- G5 or lower record: 21-0, win percentage 100%, note 2011 – 2013 Tech played 3 nonconference G5 or lower opponents per year.
- Power five record: 29-58, win percentage 33.3%
I was surprised to see that over his time here Leach only averaged three non-conference G5 or lower games per year. I would have assumed closer to four, but I wasn’t around for the non-conference schedule in the early 2000’s. I was also surprised to see that the last three coaches have outperformed Leach slightly in G5 games.
I was shocked to see the disparity in P5 records, Leach’s first year at 38%-win percentage is the only year that is lower than any year from 2011-2019. The highest win percentage from the later period, 2015’s 50%-win percentage, would rank in a four-way tie for sixth on Leach’s list. The average win percentage of the three later coaches is slightly over half that of Leach’s time at Tech. Leach did play fewer P5 teams per year (8.5/year) than the following coaches (9.67/year), but the disparity wasn’t as great as I had thought.
To compare them to the schedules that Leach played, I gave the 2011-2019 crew three G5 games and assumed they won all three every year. Then I assumed that they won the remaining nine P5 games at the same rate that they did with the actual schedule. The average estimated record during that time, with those parameters ends up being W 6.01 - L 5.99. Slightly better than the W 5.4 - L 6.6 we actually averaged.
Assumed records for Leach 2011 -2019:
- Assume: 3 G5 and 9 P5 as shown above (assumed he lost 3 G5 games during that period): W 8.43 - 3.57 L
- Assume: 2 G5 and 10 P5 (assumed he lost 3 G5 games during that period): W 7.43 - L 4.57, add a 50% bowl winning % into this and it's closer to 8 wins a season.
The conclusion that I draw is that the G5 wins did not inflate Leach’s record to the extent I thought they did. All else being equal (motivation, money, recruiting) I think he would have handily out-performed the coaches from 2011 – 2019. I do think there is a legitimate question about his motivation or if he’s been figured out though, I glanced at his records at Wazzou and they seemed worse overall than his time at Tech.
I think this shows that coaching can make a big impact at Tech, we just have to find the right one.
**Random fact I didn’t know, we played 14 games in 2002? I checked two different sources and that’s what they said.
