The Tech Defensive Improvement thread got me thinking... what's the most sound way to measure Tech's defensive performance this year, relative to our peers within the conference.
For the guy that will post "wins and losses," I'm looking for an intelligent discussion on possible answers, not a binary measurement that depends on factors well beyond the defense's performance (aka, the thing we're trying to measure). I'd rather the Stros sign a pitcher with a 2.23 ERA and a 6-12 record, then the number 5 starter on a pennant-winning team, who went 12-5 with a 4.45 ERA.
Is it strictly yards per game? If so, that means a defense who gives up 400 yards in a 6 possession game is better than a defense that gives up 550 in a 15 possession game? That doesn't sound right.
So it must be just points allowed. Let's compare one of OU's defensive performances, when it allowed 21 points and about 350 yards, to one of Tech's, when the other team put 40 on the scoreboard and racked up 420 yards.
Against Army, OU allowed 3.5 points and about 60 yards per Army possession. That's not good, horrible in fact.
Against Iowa State, Tech's defense gave up 2.21 points and about 30 yards per Iowa State possession. Not great. Probably good enough to win. But from a win/loss, total yards, total points perspective, it's much worse than how OU did against army.
In fact, when OU played a Zeb Noland-led Iowa State team, they gave up 27 points over 10 possessions. No one that is capable of thinking critically would argue that was a better performance than us giving up 31 offensive points over 14 possessions? And that obviously doesn't consider the fact that our D scored in that game, forced punts from their goal line, played a better qb, etc.
I posted this in the other thread, but the most subjective way to measure a defense seems to be points given up per possession or percentage of opponents' possessions that result in TDs.
Points given up per opponents' possession:
Baylor 2.61
OU 2.38
O$U 2.26
Texas 2.22
Kansas State 2.16
Tech 2.11
Kansas 2.07
TCU 1.91
WVU 1.63
Iowa State 1.57
Percentage of opponents' possessions that end in TD:
Baylor 31.25%
OU 30.4%
O$U 29.9%
Texas 27.42%
Tech 25.5%
Kansas 25%
Kansas State 24.37%
TCU 23.53%
WVU 20%
Iowa State 15.38%.
We also have yet to play the 2nd (KSU) and 5th worst (BU) offenses in terms of points scored per possession. I expect us to finish 4th best in both of these categories by the end of the year.
For some historical context, here is Tech's opponent's points per possession since 2005:
2018 2.11
2017 2.24
2016 2.98
2015 2.94
2014 3.02
2013 1.99
2012 2.65
2011 2.98
2010 2.08
2009 1.75
2008 2.35
2007 2.04
2006 2.04
2005 1.44
By year's end, I expect the 2018 defense to finish anywhere between 3rd - 6th best since 2005.
I don't think anyone would tell you the defense is where we want to be. But anyone relying on data, or their eye balls, or the fact that Gibbs' scheme allows a few easy 10 yard outs to argue that our defense isn't average within the conference, or improved from year's past is... well, a bit misguided. If it wasn't sports, which IMO along with women can make a really smart dude sound like an idiot, I'd think those arguing we aren't improved have a serious agenda.
For the guy that will post "wins and losses," I'm looking for an intelligent discussion on possible answers, not a binary measurement that depends on factors well beyond the defense's performance (aka, the thing we're trying to measure). I'd rather the Stros sign a pitcher with a 2.23 ERA and a 6-12 record, then the number 5 starter on a pennant-winning team, who went 12-5 with a 4.45 ERA.
Is it strictly yards per game? If so, that means a defense who gives up 400 yards in a 6 possession game is better than a defense that gives up 550 in a 15 possession game? That doesn't sound right.
So it must be just points allowed. Let's compare one of OU's defensive performances, when it allowed 21 points and about 350 yards, to one of Tech's, when the other team put 40 on the scoreboard and racked up 420 yards.
Against Army, OU allowed 3.5 points and about 60 yards per Army possession. That's not good, horrible in fact.
Against Iowa State, Tech's defense gave up 2.21 points and about 30 yards per Iowa State possession. Not great. Probably good enough to win. But from a win/loss, total yards, total points perspective, it's much worse than how OU did against army.
In fact, when OU played a Zeb Noland-led Iowa State team, they gave up 27 points over 10 possessions. No one that is capable of thinking critically would argue that was a better performance than us giving up 31 offensive points over 14 possessions? And that obviously doesn't consider the fact that our D scored in that game, forced punts from their goal line, played a better qb, etc.
I posted this in the other thread, but the most subjective way to measure a defense seems to be points given up per possession or percentage of opponents' possessions that result in TDs.
Points given up per opponents' possession:
Baylor 2.61
OU 2.38
O$U 2.26
Texas 2.22
Kansas State 2.16
Tech 2.11
Kansas 2.07
TCU 1.91
WVU 1.63
Iowa State 1.57
Percentage of opponents' possessions that end in TD:
Baylor 31.25%
OU 30.4%
O$U 29.9%
Texas 27.42%
Tech 25.5%
Kansas 25%
Kansas State 24.37%
TCU 23.53%
WVU 20%
Iowa State 15.38%.
We also have yet to play the 2nd (KSU) and 5th worst (BU) offenses in terms of points scored per possession. I expect us to finish 4th best in both of these categories by the end of the year.
For some historical context, here is Tech's opponent's points per possession since 2005:
2018 2.11
2017 2.24
2016 2.98
2015 2.94
2014 3.02
2013 1.99
2012 2.65
2011 2.98
2010 2.08
2009 1.75
2008 2.35
2007 2.04
2006 2.04
2005 1.44
By year's end, I expect the 2018 defense to finish anywhere between 3rd - 6th best since 2005.
I don't think anyone would tell you the defense is where we want to be. But anyone relying on data, or their eye balls, or the fact that Gibbs' scheme allows a few easy 10 yard outs to argue that our defense isn't average within the conference, or improved from year's past is... well, a bit misguided. If it wasn't sports, which IMO along with women can make a really smart dude sound like an idiot, I'd think those arguing we aren't improved have a serious agenda.
