It feels like it has been eons since we watched Tech beat Drake on Saturday to move on to the Sweet 16. I don't know about you but now that we are to gameday I am pretty wired and ready for this thing to kick off. The buildup has been fun and intriguing but at some point, I get tired of hearing all of the hoopla and pundits.... especially now that Arkansas is "America's Underdog" with the scrappy 7-million-dollar roster and out of nowhere Coach Cal driving them. I jest but at the same time this Arkansas team really is playing inspired basketball. Not even two months earlier this squad was dead in the water with no shot to make the tournament and now they have 10-1 title odds. Hate 'em all you want but it's impressive. They play extremely hard, are positionally huge and are very athletic, all things that Tech has struggled with at times this year. They aren't pretty to watch. Arkansas wants to bludgeon you in the paint, get to the line, turn you over and turn the game into an up and down chaotic mess. But this is where it should end for them if Tech holds up their end. Tech is better coached, has the pieces to open up a stingy Arkansas and honestly is just a better team. Let's go!
Arkansas by the Numbers:
Arkansas by the Numbers:
- 36th overall per Kenpom
- 65th on offense
- 17th on defense
- 68th in tempo
- 38th per Torvik
- 67th on offense
- 17th on defense
- 38th per Haslametrics
- 57th on offense
- 26th on defense
- Projected 77-70 Tech per Torvik
- Projected 77-70 Tech per Haslametrics
- 7th in the country in block % (15.3%)
- 245th in the country in 3P rate and 248th in the country in 3p% (32%)
- 37th in the country in eFG% allowed (47%)
- 37th in 3p% allowed (31%)
- 13th in the country in near proximity FG% allowed (51%)
- 18th in the country in near proximity FG% on offense (~66%)
- 29th in the country in FTAR
- Shoot 73% from FT (129th)
- Johnell Davis - Guard - Sr. - 6'4 210 - Smooth operator who likes to operate in the midrange. More smooth than athletic but has excellent body control and start/stop ability. Thick build and physical on both ends (especially on offense). Talented and crafty shot maker who will change speeds and has a deep bag off the bounce. Doesn't always have the best shot diet but for my money Davis is Arkansas' best offensive player. Doesn't shoot a great % from deep but fully capable of going on a heater. Historically a good shooter on high-ish volume. Averages 11 ppg, 3.3 rpg and 1.6 apg.
- Trevon Brazile - Big - Sr. - 6'10 230 - Freak athlete who will dunk on your head. Solid perimeter skillset for a big. Streaky from deep but can get hot, will play in PnP and DHOs. Lob and put back threat who is a menace in transition. Very good shot blocker, not uber strong. Can float offensively and makes dumb mistakes occasionally. Averages 6.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.1 bpg.
- DJ Wagner - Guard - So. - 6'4 195 - Downhill attacker. Gets a head of steam off of the high ball screen and can really attack the paint. Foul magnet who will get into the body of defenders. Solid if not flashy passer. Strong defender with good hands who will turn defense into offense in a flash. Can get jumper happy at times and is not a great shooter. Not a freak athlete but very powerful. Gets to the basket but can struggle finishing at times. Cannot let him get airspace to start his attack. Averages 11.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.6 apg.
- Zvonimir Ivisic - Big - So. - 7'2 245 - Endlessly tall and long big. Very good shot blocker and skilled on offense. Thin lower base and can struggle to maintain position on both ends. will stretch the floor and be used as the pop guy on screens but has been up and down as a shooter (not a great percentage). Slow footed and struggles to guard in space. Struggling with an injury and has not been very effective as of late. Averages 8.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.9 bpg.
- Jonas Aidoo - Big - Sr. - 6'11 240 - Ridiculously long big on a hot streak. Arkansas will throw it in to him in the post. Solid vertical athlete but not great laterally. Almost all left shoulder when he posts but hard to move and has solid touch. Very good shot blocker, plays in drop coverage and isn't great in ball screens in space. Good rebounder. Averages 6.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 bpg.
- Karter Knox - Fr. - 6'6 220 & Billy Richmond - Fr. - 6'5 205 - Both lengthy / athletic wings and heralded recruits. Knox is the more perimeter oriented of the two, but both are best slashing to the basket and can really go in the open floor. Combined for 31 against St. Johns and alot of it came in transition or from offensive boards. The lefty Richmond is the better athlete but is also a non shooter. Knox will shoot some from deep but is not terribly effective at it either on modest volume. Both are active, turnover causing defenders who will rip and run off of defensive rebounds. They want to get up and down. Have both come on late in the season with the absence of Thiero. Knox averages 8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.1 apg. Richmond averages 5.8 ppg, 3 rpg and 1.3 apg.
- Boogie Fland - Guard - Fr. - 6'2 175 & Adou Thiero - Wing - Jr. - 6'8 220 - Fland started the season as Arky's go to scorer and premier perimeter threat. Very talented shotmaker who can get it off the bounce or off the catch. Variety of moves and very quick, can get into the paint at will at times but struggles to finish, mostly looks to get to his jumper off the bounce. Again, a talented Shotmaker but uber confident and will take some tough looks. Wired to score but is a good playmaker. Small and a liability on defense. Has struggled since missing a bunch of time with injury. Thiero when healthy is probably Arkansas' best 2-way player. NBA frame and athleticism. High motor player who lives on the glass and gets most of his looks the dirty way. Finishes thru contact and moves off the ball well. Non shooter and a very good defender. Has missed extended time with an injury and might be on a minutes restriction. Fland averages 14.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, and 5.4 apg (20 games). Thiero averages 15.6 ppg, 6 rpg, 2 apg, and 1.7 spg (26 games).
- Ball screen supremacy -Tech has eviscerated opponents in ball screen actions this year. With the primary duo being Toppin and Hawkins, but D5 / Anderson / Fede all contributing as well to this trend. Arkansas does not blitz ball screens like some teams due. Instead preferring to use their bigs in drop coverage, which provides space for the roller to maneuver. Just so happens Tech thrives in the short roll. JT and D5 will need to take advantage of this.
- An interesting nugget (compliments of the wonderful folks at 3 Man Weave) is that Arkansas 10th percentile in defending the roll man while allowing it at a 79th percentile frequency. Favors Tech.
- Shot Diets / Officiating -These two teams could not be more different in the type of shots they will take offensively. Tech runs beautiful offense in the half court and lives at the rim (Toppin/D5) or behind the arc (bevy of shooters). In theory an ideal shot diet. Arkansas can't really shoot and doesn't really care to jack up a ton of looks from deep. They will chuck from midrange and bludgeon their way into the paint. And will live at the line if you allow them. So that leads to two things...
- If this game is called tightly that would likely favor Arkansas. Tech cannot allow Fede/Toppin to get into foul trouble or for Arky to have a steady diet of FT attempts.
- Tech has to be better from deep. Thinking 8+ makes to soften up an aggressive defense.
- Winning on the margins - Keeping the pace in the favor of Tech is key. Tech usually takes care of the ball and will need to continue that trend. Arkansas wants chaos. That cannot be allowed. And Captain Obvious here but Tech has to hang on the glass. Cannot allow second and third looks at the rim and needs to hit the offensive glass to avoid run outs just as much as to score.
