Was talking to a coaching bud and discussing the strategy of onside kicking. Several points were made.
1. A receiving team gets the ball on the 25 on a touchback now compared to the 20 a few years ago.
2. An unsuccessful onside kick would result in the receiving team getting the ball around the 50.
This is only a 25 yard difference.
3. If you are facing a highly successful spread offense, a difference of 25 yards can often be only a couple of plays.
4. An onside kick eliminates the chance for a long return.
5. What is the % of possessions that you can expect to hold the opponent to less than a touchdown.? (would TCU or us expect to stop each other more than 25%) And how would that percentage change if they had to drive only 25 yards farther) Can we assume that defenses are much better against a passing offense inside the red zone when defending less area?
6. If your onside kick is unsuccessful, your defense will be on the field less, whether a result of the short field or a defensive stop. And that means the opponent's is on the field more.
7. How often can you expect to recover an onside kick if the opponent is set up for a deep kickoff? (Remembering that more onsides kicks are successful when the opponent doesn't a have a hands team up front expecting one.)
Obviously you kick it deep if you have a really stout defense or the opposition's offense is poor. But if you only expect to stop the opponent at a 25% rate, would the chance for recovering an onside kick offset the 25 yards you lose in field position.
Arkansas should've tried some for sure. I won't be surprised at all if someone this weekend kicks a couple.
Anyway, just something for thought.
1. A receiving team gets the ball on the 25 on a touchback now compared to the 20 a few years ago.
2. An unsuccessful onside kick would result in the receiving team getting the ball around the 50.
This is only a 25 yard difference.
3. If you are facing a highly successful spread offense, a difference of 25 yards can often be only a couple of plays.
4. An onside kick eliminates the chance for a long return.
5. What is the % of possessions that you can expect to hold the opponent to less than a touchdown.? (would TCU or us expect to stop each other more than 25%) And how would that percentage change if they had to drive only 25 yards farther) Can we assume that defenses are much better against a passing offense inside the red zone when defending less area?
6. If your onside kick is unsuccessful, your defense will be on the field less, whether a result of the short field or a defensive stop. And that means the opponent's is on the field more.
7. How often can you expect to recover an onside kick if the opponent is set up for a deep kickoff? (Remembering that more onsides kicks are successful when the opponent doesn't a have a hands team up front expecting one.)
Obviously you kick it deep if you have a really stout defense or the opposition's offense is poor. But if you only expect to stop the opponent at a 25% rate, would the chance for recovering an onside kick offset the 25 yards you lose in field position.
Arkansas should've tried some for sure. I won't be surprised at all if someone this weekend kicks a couple.
Anyway, just something for thought.
