I don't think anyone needs to be reminded how great Trey Wolff was last season, he saved our collective butts on several occasions. As great as some of those moments were, I'd rather not ride the razor's edge of successful season v. unsuccessful season depending on the foot of a kicker.
The reason his services were called upon time and time again was because of the Tech offense's inability to consistently score touchdowns. FootballOutsiders.com tracks this with their Touchdown Rate stat (Touchdown rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown). Tech ranked 66th in this category, scoring touchdowns on 27.9% of their eligible drives. This was not Tech's worst offensive metric was Turnover rate (Turnover rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that end with an interception or fumble) where Tech ranked 114th, turning the ball over on almost 15% of their drives. I chose to focus on touchdown rate over turnover rate because 1) the two are related, turnovers are why a touchdown wasn't scored, and 2) turnovers are mostly random.
Ultimately, the touchdown rate problem is due to a lack of explosive plays. It's the reason Tech was so aggressive on 4th down, it forced Kittely to try to have to be perfect and generate touchdown plays, and it forced the offensive to run more plays which led to turnovers, penalties, and opportunities for negative plays. While Drae McCray, Cam Valdez, and quarterback continuity might help reduce this issue in 2023, I do not expect it to be magically fixed by simply adding a couple of fast guys. If I did this article would be over, instead, I looked at some pivotal drives last season that ended in FG attempts, and wonder how those might can be handled differently in 2023.
A quick preamble, yes I know that none of these clips include this year's starting quarterback and yes, I know we've added two offensive line starters. The point of this exercise is how can things be different in 2023 to generate more success. When looking for drives, I kept it to games where I think Tech should have won, and drives that I felt getting 7 instead of 3 could have changed the outcome.
The first drive that stood out as I looked back on the year was this one from the 3rd quarter against Kansas State, a game that, the Red Raiders had no business being in, and at the same time, should have won. This drive comes after the defense has forced several punts in a row that has kept the game close, and tech has a drive deep in KState territory after a big play.
I have no problem with this first play, especially considering how bad the run game was at times last season, these quick receiver screens will only be more effective if the run game provides some kind of thread in 2023. After a successful first down play, Kittley decides to take a shot, not an uncommon move for an OC with 2nd and short, the problem is the personnel. It's a great play design that forces a LB to cover in space based on formation and pre-snap motion, but why are we not taking advantage of this design with someone who can outrun the LB? Teeter is great at what he does and a necessary cog in the machine, but he has no business running this route. You'd like to think, after the way Cupp finished the season he would be the one getting this opportunity going forward.
This 3rd down play drives me nuts. Tech goes bunch formation to try to get someone open quick, but only one route is really that quick, the rest are intermediate or deep that take a beat or two to develop. The one quick hitter route, the stop route in the middle of the field is open and Donovan made that throw about 100 times against Texas the week before, he never looks there. Instead the pressure gets to him and he heaves a 25 yard desperation pass on 3rd and 3, even though a dump off to Rod in the flat might score. This season, I need to see a run play in this situation, especially after you tried the shot play on 2nd down. This season, let's see one of those Shough designed runs, speed options, or zone follows. Even if this is the same play call in 2023, from what we know from Shough, it's safe to assume he sees no one has picked up Rod OR we still take that deep shot and instead of asking Sparkman to create separation, we are finding McCrae.
The other drive that really bothered me in the moment, and continued to bother me as I prepared for this, is the last drive of the first half against OSU. Another game that was right there for the taking, for what felt like, an eternity. Tech just could not get that one stop or one conversion to really put the pressure on the pokes. A score here might would have done it.
Similar to the last series, I like the idea of the first play of this drive. I do wonder why Cupp is running the play with the motion and towards the boundary, I know it's ultimately a screen, but this seems like the kind of formation and motion that would lend to him leaking out against the flow of the play for Morton to dump off to him in a ton of space. This play appears to be a QB Run RPO, Morton can follow Brooks if the flow is towards Cupp or fling it out to Cupp is the linebackers stay stationary. OSU plays this pretty well and doesn't really give Morton a clear read, so he gets it to a play maker in space, but since it's the short side of the field, Cupp doesn't really have a chance to make anything of it. This season, with Shough's ability to run, this play, and the read, change drastically. Those LBs have to make a choice, giving Shough an easier time making them wrong.
2nd down is a zone wham play out of 13 personnel, which is interesting, everyone blocks down, opposite TE creates a whole by running down the LOS and kicking out the end man. Again, I like the play call, but this time personnel prevents you from scoring. Everyone does a good job of creating movement, except for the LG, Weston Wright, he's stood up which clouds Rod's ability to find a gap. As. great as Rod was, I do wonder what Tahj or Valdez would do in this situation because those two are much more "foot in the ground and go" backs than Rod ever was and that may ave made a difference here. Going forward, I'd like to think Cole Spencer could get a better down block, and Tahj would be able to make more of what's there between the tackles. This is another situation where Shough's running ability would create space, or time, with him having to be accounted for in the scheme.
Finally, this third down play which was a "YES, NO, DANG!" I know there where times where these Donovan short yardage plays were successful later in the season, but I don't like this idea, in principle. I want my best players out there on every down, and that does not include those two QBs at this time in the year. We are led to believe that Donovan was hurt for this game... why is he out there? If he was benched due to indecision/bad decisions... again, why is he out there? Even still, everyone bites on the Donovan fake, but Rod not selling it for a half second nearly proves disastrous. It's also blocked really well and Donovan might score if he runs it in... just a weird deal in a weird spot that may have cost us a game. I think we saw what a play like this will look like in 2023 during the bowl game, if we are going to go two QB with Shough and Morton it will be much more involved, misdirection, handoffs, laterals, double passes, both QBs can run. and throw. Basically, a defense will have to be ready for more than just one thing, even if it's a good one thing.
These situations will also bring out the best in guys like Valdez, getting the edge, Tahj and Shough, tough inside the tackles runners, Cupp, mismatch nightmare, Bradley, huge, McRae, creating space. I'm excited, and hopeful, that a few minor tweaks in personnel and scheme can improve that TD rate and steal us a couple more games in 2023.
Be sure to book with TreeLine Vacation Rentals if you are in need of a Broken Bow, Oklahoma cabin rental. All Red Raiders get a 25% discount and direct booking with no additional fees.
TreeLine Vacation Rentals – Broken Bow, OK
Craig Crawford (@crawfordTT)
214-228-0892
TreeLine Owner craig@vacationtreeline.com
TreeLine can also build, sell & manage investment properties in Broken Bow -- one of the best investment opportunities in the nation right now!
The reason his services were called upon time and time again was because of the Tech offense's inability to consistently score touchdowns. FootballOutsiders.com tracks this with their Touchdown Rate stat (Touchdown rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown). Tech ranked 66th in this category, scoring touchdowns on 27.9% of their eligible drives. This was not Tech's worst offensive metric was Turnover rate (Turnover rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that end with an interception or fumble) where Tech ranked 114th, turning the ball over on almost 15% of their drives. I chose to focus on touchdown rate over turnover rate because 1) the two are related, turnovers are why a touchdown wasn't scored, and 2) turnovers are mostly random.
Ultimately, the touchdown rate problem is due to a lack of explosive plays. It's the reason Tech was so aggressive on 4th down, it forced Kittely to try to have to be perfect and generate touchdown plays, and it forced the offensive to run more plays which led to turnovers, penalties, and opportunities for negative plays. While Drae McCray, Cam Valdez, and quarterback continuity might help reduce this issue in 2023, I do not expect it to be magically fixed by simply adding a couple of fast guys. If I did this article would be over, instead, I looked at some pivotal drives last season that ended in FG attempts, and wonder how those might can be handled differently in 2023.
A quick preamble, yes I know that none of these clips include this year's starting quarterback and yes, I know we've added two offensive line starters. The point of this exercise is how can things be different in 2023 to generate more success. When looking for drives, I kept it to games where I think Tech should have won, and drives that I felt getting 7 instead of 3 could have changed the outcome.
The first drive that stood out as I looked back on the year was this one from the 3rd quarter against Kansas State, a game that, the Red Raiders had no business being in, and at the same time, should have won. This drive comes after the defense has forced several punts in a row that has kept the game close, and tech has a drive deep in KState territory after a big play.
I have no problem with this first play, especially considering how bad the run game was at times last season, these quick receiver screens will only be more effective if the run game provides some kind of thread in 2023. After a successful first down play, Kittley decides to take a shot, not an uncommon move for an OC with 2nd and short, the problem is the personnel. It's a great play design that forces a LB to cover in space based on formation and pre-snap motion, but why are we not taking advantage of this design with someone who can outrun the LB? Teeter is great at what he does and a necessary cog in the machine, but he has no business running this route. You'd like to think, after the way Cupp finished the season he would be the one getting this opportunity going forward.
This 3rd down play drives me nuts. Tech goes bunch formation to try to get someone open quick, but only one route is really that quick, the rest are intermediate or deep that take a beat or two to develop. The one quick hitter route, the stop route in the middle of the field is open and Donovan made that throw about 100 times against Texas the week before, he never looks there. Instead the pressure gets to him and he heaves a 25 yard desperation pass on 3rd and 3, even though a dump off to Rod in the flat might score. This season, I need to see a run play in this situation, especially after you tried the shot play on 2nd down. This season, let's see one of those Shough designed runs, speed options, or zone follows. Even if this is the same play call in 2023, from what we know from Shough, it's safe to assume he sees no one has picked up Rod OR we still take that deep shot and instead of asking Sparkman to create separation, we are finding McCrae.
The other drive that really bothered me in the moment, and continued to bother me as I prepared for this, is the last drive of the first half against OSU. Another game that was right there for the taking, for what felt like, an eternity. Tech just could not get that one stop or one conversion to really put the pressure on the pokes. A score here might would have done it.
Similar to the last series, I like the idea of the first play of this drive. I do wonder why Cupp is running the play with the motion and towards the boundary, I know it's ultimately a screen, but this seems like the kind of formation and motion that would lend to him leaking out against the flow of the play for Morton to dump off to him in a ton of space. This play appears to be a QB Run RPO, Morton can follow Brooks if the flow is towards Cupp or fling it out to Cupp is the linebackers stay stationary. OSU plays this pretty well and doesn't really give Morton a clear read, so he gets it to a play maker in space, but since it's the short side of the field, Cupp doesn't really have a chance to make anything of it. This season, with Shough's ability to run, this play, and the read, change drastically. Those LBs have to make a choice, giving Shough an easier time making them wrong.
2nd down is a zone wham play out of 13 personnel, which is interesting, everyone blocks down, opposite TE creates a whole by running down the LOS and kicking out the end man. Again, I like the play call, but this time personnel prevents you from scoring. Everyone does a good job of creating movement, except for the LG, Weston Wright, he's stood up which clouds Rod's ability to find a gap. As. great as Rod was, I do wonder what Tahj or Valdez would do in this situation because those two are much more "foot in the ground and go" backs than Rod ever was and that may ave made a difference here. Going forward, I'd like to think Cole Spencer could get a better down block, and Tahj would be able to make more of what's there between the tackles. This is another situation where Shough's running ability would create space, or time, with him having to be accounted for in the scheme.
Finally, this third down play which was a "YES, NO, DANG!" I know there where times where these Donovan short yardage plays were successful later in the season, but I don't like this idea, in principle. I want my best players out there on every down, and that does not include those two QBs at this time in the year. We are led to believe that Donovan was hurt for this game... why is he out there? If he was benched due to indecision/bad decisions... again, why is he out there? Even still, everyone bites on the Donovan fake, but Rod not selling it for a half second nearly proves disastrous. It's also blocked really well and Donovan might score if he runs it in... just a weird deal in a weird spot that may have cost us a game. I think we saw what a play like this will look like in 2023 during the bowl game, if we are going to go two QB with Shough and Morton it will be much more involved, misdirection, handoffs, laterals, double passes, both QBs can run. and throw. Basically, a defense will have to be ready for more than just one thing, even if it's a good one thing.
These situations will also bring out the best in guys like Valdez, getting the edge, Tahj and Shough, tough inside the tackles runners, Cupp, mismatch nightmare, Bradley, huge, McRae, creating space. I'm excited, and hopeful, that a few minor tweaks in personnel and scheme can improve that TD rate and steal us a couple more games in 2023.
Be sure to book with TreeLine Vacation Rentals if you are in need of a Broken Bow, Oklahoma cabin rental. All Red Raiders get a 25% discount and direct booking with no additional fees.
TreeLine Vacation Rentals – Broken Bow, OK
Craig Crawford (@crawfordTT)
214-228-0892
TreeLine Owner craig@vacationtreeline.com
TreeLine can also build, sell & manage investment properties in Broken Bow -- one of the best investment opportunities in the nation right now!
Last edited by a moderator:
