1. First things first…
Texas Tech’s win over Oklahoma State on Saturday marked the 11th career game for Jett Duffey. If you exclude mop-up snaps in garbage time, he’s seen meaningful action in seven games and started four – all against Big 12 opponents. Duffey has thrown more than 200 passes against conference opponents, with 155 of those attempts coming against ranked teams.
While that seems like a substantial sample size – and, in most cases, it would be - it’s a little bit deceiving in Duffey’s case because he hasn’t really had an opportunity to play for an extended period. He’s never played in more than three games in a row, and nearly a third of his Big 12 passes have come in relief of an injured or ineffective starter. The one instance where Duffey was able to start back-to-back games, he put up big numbers against Texas and then played through a serious knee injury the following week at Kansas State.
The Red Raiders’ game in Waco next Saturday is significant for several reasons, but for Duffey specifically it represents a key milestone. First and foremost, it will be his first real chance to build a body of work as a starting quarterback. Second, it will be his fifth start against a Big 12 team – matching Alan Bowman’s total from last season.
Yes, I’m going there. It’s still probably too early to have a conversation about how solidly Bowman is entrenched as Texas Tech’s starting quarterback, but it might be time to begin thinking out-loud about that discussion.
It’s not a complete apples-to-apples comparison, but Bowman is 2-3 as a starter in conference games while Duffey is 2-2. And when you line up and compare their statistics in Big 12 play, it’s very difficult to argue that Bowman’s numbers are better.
Duffey: 134 of 209 (64.1 percent) for 1,672 yards, 12 TD, 5 INT; 320 rushing yards, 4 TD
Bowman: 133 of 194 (68.5 percent) for 1,478 yards, 9 TD, 7 INT; -44 rushing yards, TD
You wouldn’t have known it by watching Saturday, but the biggest knocks on Duffey throughout his career – especially when compared to Bowman – have been his decision-making and inconsistency. If Duffey continues to play like he did against the Cowboys, Matt Wells will have a big decision to make at quarterback.
2. Two questions heading into Week 7
… Can Duffey sustain this level of play? This seems a bit like cheating since I discussed this at length above, but it seems reasonable to think that the answer to this question will largely determine whether Texas Tech qualifies for a bowl game this season. This is uncharted territory for Duffey.
… What is Charlie Brewer’s status? Brewer did not finish the fourth quarter of Baylor’s win over Kansas State after taking a big hit from a defender. Backup Gerry Bohanon finished the game and was not asked to do too much, ending 1 of 1 for 38 yards passing and scoring a touchdown on a 1-yard run. The 5-0 Bears will be a tough out regardless, but the complexion of next week’s matchup changes significantly if Brewer isn’t available.
3. Three stats that put Saturday’s performance in context
… Jett Duffey is the first Big 12 quarterback this season to account for five touchdowns and zero turnovers in a conference game. Last year, Oklahoma State’s Taylor Cornelius, Texas’ Sam Ehlinger and Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray were the only signal callers to reach those marks against a conference opponent. Patrick Mahomes did it twice in his career in Lubbock.
… Even without the five turnovers, seven sacks and 14 TFL, Texas Tech’s defense played better than Oklahoma State’s 509 yards and 35 points would suggest. Those numbers are a bit inflated thanks to the Pokes’ 18 possessions and 93 snaps. The Red Raiders allowed 1.94 points per drive on Saturday which, while not spectacular, is their best showing against a Power Five team this season and their fifth-best performance against a Power Five team since the start of the 2018 season.
… The Red Raiders haven’t successfully converted a 3rd and 10-plus situation since McLane Carter connected with Antoine Wesley for 19 yards, converting a 3rd and 17, on the team’s last drive of the 2018 season. Since then, Texas Tech is 0-for-14 when needing 10 or more yards. The team is just 3-of-27 on third downs over the last two games.
4. Four things that stand out from diving through the PFF numbers
… Jett Duffey was 5-of-11 for 172 yards and two touchdowns on passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield. For the sake of comparison, Alan Bowman is 3-of-20 for 99 yards, a touchdown and an interception this season when going downfield 20-plus yards.
… Jaylon Hutchings’ PFF grade of 91.9 is the best for a Texas Tech defender since Eli Howard posted a 93.1 against Kansas in 2017.
… Not counting the two reverses, kneel-downs or Duffey’s scrambles, Texas Tech’s ground game produced 115 yards on 18 carries when running behind the left side of the offensive line and 29 yards on 10 carries when running behind the right.
… SaRodorick Thompson’s season PFF grade of 77.7 is the fourth-highest on the team and tops among Texas Tech’s skill position players. The last Red Raider back to post that kind of grade over the course of a season was DeAndre Washington (77.8 in 2014 and 77.5 in 2015).
5. Five observations from Week 6
1. The NCAA’s four-game redshirt rule continues to be a source of intriguing, and in many cases sensible, decisions by college football players. The latest examples of this are Rutgers sophomore quarterback Art Sitkowski and junior running back Raheem Blacksheer, who approached Scarlet Knights interim coach Nunzio Campanile last week after fourth-year head coach Chris Ash was fired and told him of their plans. This makes perfect sense from the players’ perspective - why waste a season of eligibility under an interim coach? – and I’m curious to see if we see athletic departments hold off on these kinds of early firings in the future in order to prevent this from happening.
2. SMU’s 43-37 triple overtime win over Tulsa may not have been the best played or prettiest game of the week, but it sure was entertaining.
3. For as much as Charlie Brewer is talked about as one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12, the Bears haven’t exactly lit the scoreboard on fire this season. In fact, Baylor hasn’t scored more than 35 points in a Big 12 game since scoring 37 against Kansas State on Oct. 6, 2018. That’s eight-straight conference games and the longest active drought in the Big 12.
4. Texas didn’t exactly look like a team primed to knock off Oklahoma on Saturday. It turned in a performance that was good enough to secure a double-digit road win, which is nothing to sneeze at, but that kind of showing won’t be good enough next week in Dallas.
5. I’m not so sure that Ohio State and Oklahoma aren’t the best two teams in the country right now.
Texas Tech’s win over Oklahoma State on Saturday marked the 11th career game for Jett Duffey. If you exclude mop-up snaps in garbage time, he’s seen meaningful action in seven games and started four – all against Big 12 opponents. Duffey has thrown more than 200 passes against conference opponents, with 155 of those attempts coming against ranked teams.
While that seems like a substantial sample size – and, in most cases, it would be - it’s a little bit deceiving in Duffey’s case because he hasn’t really had an opportunity to play for an extended period. He’s never played in more than three games in a row, and nearly a third of his Big 12 passes have come in relief of an injured or ineffective starter. The one instance where Duffey was able to start back-to-back games, he put up big numbers against Texas and then played through a serious knee injury the following week at Kansas State.
The Red Raiders’ game in Waco next Saturday is significant for several reasons, but for Duffey specifically it represents a key milestone. First and foremost, it will be his first real chance to build a body of work as a starting quarterback. Second, it will be his fifth start against a Big 12 team – matching Alan Bowman’s total from last season.
Yes, I’m going there. It’s still probably too early to have a conversation about how solidly Bowman is entrenched as Texas Tech’s starting quarterback, but it might be time to begin thinking out-loud about that discussion.
It’s not a complete apples-to-apples comparison, but Bowman is 2-3 as a starter in conference games while Duffey is 2-2. And when you line up and compare their statistics in Big 12 play, it’s very difficult to argue that Bowman’s numbers are better.
Duffey: 134 of 209 (64.1 percent) for 1,672 yards, 12 TD, 5 INT; 320 rushing yards, 4 TD
Bowman: 133 of 194 (68.5 percent) for 1,478 yards, 9 TD, 7 INT; -44 rushing yards, TD
You wouldn’t have known it by watching Saturday, but the biggest knocks on Duffey throughout his career – especially when compared to Bowman – have been his decision-making and inconsistency. If Duffey continues to play like he did against the Cowboys, Matt Wells will have a big decision to make at quarterback.
2. Two questions heading into Week 7
… Can Duffey sustain this level of play? This seems a bit like cheating since I discussed this at length above, but it seems reasonable to think that the answer to this question will largely determine whether Texas Tech qualifies for a bowl game this season. This is uncharted territory for Duffey.
… What is Charlie Brewer’s status? Brewer did not finish the fourth quarter of Baylor’s win over Kansas State after taking a big hit from a defender. Backup Gerry Bohanon finished the game and was not asked to do too much, ending 1 of 1 for 38 yards passing and scoring a touchdown on a 1-yard run. The 5-0 Bears will be a tough out regardless, but the complexion of next week’s matchup changes significantly if Brewer isn’t available.
3. Three stats that put Saturday’s performance in context
… Jett Duffey is the first Big 12 quarterback this season to account for five touchdowns and zero turnovers in a conference game. Last year, Oklahoma State’s Taylor Cornelius, Texas’ Sam Ehlinger and Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray were the only signal callers to reach those marks against a conference opponent. Patrick Mahomes did it twice in his career in Lubbock.
… Even without the five turnovers, seven sacks and 14 TFL, Texas Tech’s defense played better than Oklahoma State’s 509 yards and 35 points would suggest. Those numbers are a bit inflated thanks to the Pokes’ 18 possessions and 93 snaps. The Red Raiders allowed 1.94 points per drive on Saturday which, while not spectacular, is their best showing against a Power Five team this season and their fifth-best performance against a Power Five team since the start of the 2018 season.
… The Red Raiders haven’t successfully converted a 3rd and 10-plus situation since McLane Carter connected with Antoine Wesley for 19 yards, converting a 3rd and 17, on the team’s last drive of the 2018 season. Since then, Texas Tech is 0-for-14 when needing 10 or more yards. The team is just 3-of-27 on third downs over the last two games.
4. Four things that stand out from diving through the PFF numbers
… Jett Duffey was 5-of-11 for 172 yards and two touchdowns on passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield. For the sake of comparison, Alan Bowman is 3-of-20 for 99 yards, a touchdown and an interception this season when going downfield 20-plus yards.
… Jaylon Hutchings’ PFF grade of 91.9 is the best for a Texas Tech defender since Eli Howard posted a 93.1 against Kansas in 2017.
… Not counting the two reverses, kneel-downs or Duffey’s scrambles, Texas Tech’s ground game produced 115 yards on 18 carries when running behind the left side of the offensive line and 29 yards on 10 carries when running behind the right.
… SaRodorick Thompson’s season PFF grade of 77.7 is the fourth-highest on the team and tops among Texas Tech’s skill position players. The last Red Raider back to post that kind of grade over the course of a season was DeAndre Washington (77.8 in 2014 and 77.5 in 2015).
5. Five observations from Week 6
1. The NCAA’s four-game redshirt rule continues to be a source of intriguing, and in many cases sensible, decisions by college football players. The latest examples of this are Rutgers sophomore quarterback Art Sitkowski and junior running back Raheem Blacksheer, who approached Scarlet Knights interim coach Nunzio Campanile last week after fourth-year head coach Chris Ash was fired and told him of their plans. This makes perfect sense from the players’ perspective - why waste a season of eligibility under an interim coach? – and I’m curious to see if we see athletic departments hold off on these kinds of early firings in the future in order to prevent this from happening.
2. SMU’s 43-37 triple overtime win over Tulsa may not have been the best played or prettiest game of the week, but it sure was entertaining.
3. For as much as Charlie Brewer is talked about as one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12, the Bears haven’t exactly lit the scoreboard on fire this season. In fact, Baylor hasn’t scored more than 35 points in a Big 12 game since scoring 37 against Kansas State on Oct. 6, 2018. That’s eight-straight conference games and the longest active drought in the Big 12.
4. Texas didn’t exactly look like a team primed to knock off Oklahoma on Saturday. It turned in a performance that was good enough to secure a double-digit road win, which is nothing to sneeze at, but that kind of showing won’t be good enough next week in Dallas.
5. I’m not so sure that Ohio State and Oklahoma aren’t the best two teams in the country right now.
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